Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Frosty hollows]

21 minutes ago, Reg Sealey said:

Incoming storm very fast from the north. In Reading. Thunder loud and ominous already!

 

 

Just had that. Enjoy!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Grumpy looking clouds to my south but I don’t think they’re gonna spark. Hoping that lot near Bracknell intensifies as it passes into Surrey...

[biddie]

More behind it!

[lassie23]

There has been a thunder storm over London for the past hour or so and it's pretty intense, flooding will be an issue if this carries on.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Absolutely throwing it down in Cardiff!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Rumble again over towards peaslake

[Despicable Weather]

Rumbling skies here in the south of Chilterns for last hour, great to hear thunder again. Only spotted one flash of IC out to the west and only received 0.4mm of rain so far which was at 4pm, dry since.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Thunder storm in * Bracknell *

apparently

[fujita5]

Area is rotation that crossed Clacton around 17.40.

 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Looks like over London anyway its lost it's fuel.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well there goes yet another slight for our area that was unwarranted.

I actually was fooled, things really were kicking off for a while but it got to the point of producing two very distant rumbles and lost it.

Too little too late, the fuel for the storms is gone now they’re in this area and it’s just dark and drizzly.

[Zak M]

I can't see any convective/storm potential for the next 7 days. Meaning as it's now October, the chances of storms will slip away to almost nothing for at least 6 months.

Edited October 1, 2019 by Zak M

[Another Kent clipper]

Things looked a bit sexy earlier in Wallington, Sutton.  A few respectable rumbles.

And then it went away.

[Azazel]

12 hours ago, Zak M said:

I can't see any convective/storm potential for the next 7 days. Meaning as it's now October, the chances of storms will slip away to almost nothing for at least 6 months.

An improvement here over last year! 

 

Had one rumble of thunder in April. That was absolutely it (minus the July plume).

[Weather-history]

Took these photos towards north Cheshire about 1.55pm this afternoon. Not sure what to make of it  but it caught my attention as it waxed and waned

[Superstormuk]

Look at the structure of this cell, over Surrey at around 17:45 this afternoon.

Nice anvil and what looks like a mesocylone with a tail cloud (bloody tree blocked part of the view). 

[Another Kent clipper]

@Superstormuk

I saw an anvil-shaped cloud today in Croydon and thought "aww, it looks like a cumulonimbus but it can't be because we have no storm forcast"

Well maybe that bird that quacked was in fact a duck!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A peanut of potential overnight in the channel, so I hear

[Dorsetbred]

47 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A peanut of potential overnight in the channel, so I hear

That's an interesting measure 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 06 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 07 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:45 UTC Sat 05 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Disrupting upper trough will result in an upper low sliding quickly southeastwards across England and Wales on Sunday, reaching the Low Countries by the end of the afternoon. On the forward side, an overlap of cooling aloft combined with upper forcing and subtle surface heating on Sunday morning may encourage a few heavy showers to develop immediately to the rear of the main frontal rain - with a primary focus over CS / SE England. Should any showers develop during the morning hours then there may be a few lightning strikes.

Elsewhere, a few showers are likely in the post-frontal environment but these will largely develop to the rear of the main upper low, resulting in a rather uninspiring environment for lightning - and so the risk is considered rather low.

Also, the surface pattern becomes rather complicated across eastern England by the afternoon, given the frontal boundary grinding to a halt as the main upper forcing runs away southeastwards - with the development of one (or more) surface lows expected, particularly over East Anglia. The net result is areas of low-level convergence within the low axes, which may encourage slow-moving very heavy showers to develop during the afternoon in particular. Exact placement of these will be difficult to pinpoint, although a blend of various NWP would suggest Norfolk and perhaps Lincolnshire at greatest risk. Near-saturated profiles and weak instability suggests the risk of lightning is rather low. However, this would bring the threat of some surface water flooding given event rainfall accumulations (including frontal rain) possibly exceeding 60mm very locally. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-06

 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Wembley big thunder storm moving in.

 

Very localized storm, about 11 rumbles and very heavy rain now blue sky outside.

 

Looking at lightning maps was probably a cloud burst, no more thunder appearing.

Edited October 6, 2019 by WeatherWatchmanG

[Allseasons-Si]

Keeping my eye on this line of showers intensifying just to the north of me,it looks like a CZ to me,i don't think they will produce any sferics but i could be wrong.

Edited October 6, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 08 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 09 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:16 UTC Mon 07 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad westerly flow covers the British Isles through Tuesday, with a couple of troughs moving through in the flow. These will provide the focus for more organised bands of showers to move eastwards - one in particular will cross England and Wales during Tuesday daytime. Either side, numerous scattered showers will affect western areas throughout the forecast period, increasing in coverage across the English Channel too during Tuesday night.

For the most part, instability is a little marginal for much in the way of lightning - however, strong shear and steep mid-level lapse rates aided quite a few lightning strikes on Monday evening over western Scotland and NW Ireland, and it is likely a similar magnitude of shear over the Midlands, southern and eastern England combined with strong forcing aloft and marked mid-level dry intrusion will aid in some sporadic lightning across these areas during Tuesday afternoon (moreso as they move offshore to the North Sea) - and so a low-end SLGT has been issued, despite somewhat restricted convective depth. Hail and gusty winds will accompany the most intense cells.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-08

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like today there’s little to get too excited about now. Shame, cos I’m in Kent today and it looked to be a sweet spot in earlier forecasts.

Ah well, roll on April and the season kicks off again. Yum

[Zak M]

Something interesting is happening to my north.