Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

50 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You mean, the ICON?

Ha! Probably, it seems to change model all the time. It’s sometimes right tho

Edited September 23, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Mesocyclones possible overnight in a line roughly from Weymouth up into lincs and approx 75 miles either side. Just been reading up from UKWW.

Thunder/lightning still not considered a huge threat but wind and rainfall could be significant

[Zak M]

Lightning being detected off the coast of Cornwall and NW France.

Edit: Quite a nice little cell ramping up, a decent strike rate too.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Zak M

[Josh Rubio]

Looks like there’s some pretty beefy showers developing in the West/South West now. 

[Mapantz]

I hope the UKV is wrong. The last few runs have been moving the worst of it East.

[AMeltedFlake]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I hope the UKV is wrong. The last few runs have been moving the worst of it East.

I was thinking the same! Is it a common theme for the UKV to move everything east? 

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

I was thinking the same! Is it a common theme for the UKV to move everything east? 

Hard to know to be honest, as it's only been available to us peons for a few months. It ties in with what the Euro4 model is showing, though. It's quite possible that the Met's own MOGREPS does a better job, but we'll never know!

Just to add; the forecasts for locations on the Met Office' site use the UKV model. After showing numerous lightning symbols for my location for the past 4 days, they have now been removed. lol

It's a radar watch situation for me!

Edited September 23, 2019 by Mapantz

[AMeltedFlake]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Hard to know to be honest, as it's only been available to us peons for a few months. It ties in with what the Euro4 model is showing, though. It's quite possible that the Met's own MOGREPS does a better job, but we'll never know!

Just to add; the forecasts for locations on the Met Office' site use the UKV model. After showing numerous lightning symbols for my location for the past 4 days, they have now been removed. lol

It's a radar watch situation for me!

I didn't know that the MOGREPS even existed, so that's interesting to know the bulk of rain off the coast Cornwall has been forecasted to move across the south of the UK, looks like its still heading NE at the moment.

[biddie]

Storms approaching Cornwall 

[Josh Rubio]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I hope the UKV is wrong. The last few runs have been moving the worst of it East.

Please excuse my ignorance, but why don’t you want it to verify? Because you might miss out any potential storms or because of the disruption it could cause? 

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

Please excuse my ignorance, but why don’t you want it to verify? Because you might miss out any potential storms or because of the disruption it could cause? 

Because I like extreme weather.. i've missed out on a lot this year, so it would be nice to cop a good'un!

[LightningLover]

Pretty photogenic feature on radar in my opinion!

[Mapantz]

Another shift East..

[AMeltedFlake]

15 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Another shift East..

Not 100% sure how the model runs works, but the 21Z 2am model compared to the live rainfall is around 100 miles too far east!

Edited September 24, 2019 by AMeltedFlake

[Mapantz]

 

Just now, AMeltedFlake said:

Not 100% how the model runs works, but the 21Z 2am model compared to the live rain full is around 100 miles too far east!

I was right in the middle of typing the same thing. lol

I don't think it's handling it particularly well if i'm honest..

 

 

[WeatherWatchmanG]

Just now, AMeltedFlake said:

Not 100% how the model runs works, but the 21Z 2am model compared to the live rain full is around 100 miles too far east!

Oh more than 100 miles add at least another 80 to that

[AMeltedFlake]

I could understand poor accuracy if it was a destabilising plume (don't think it is) but in my short term of being a fan of the weather, I've always assumed that simple(ish) low pressure systems should be easier to predict? 

[Mapantz]

It wouldn't surprise me if I get less rainfall than yesterday. 25mm fell here. 12mm the day before while under a yellow warning. I haven't got any work on today so I might stay up a bit longer just to see what occurs.

[Jordan S]

Quite an intense clump of rain developing and moving northeast from the southwest should expand and become more widespread in a short while..

[Barbmac]

Lightning and deep rolling thunder here, following torrential rain.

[wimblettben]

Had a close rumble of thunder here a few hours ago when a heavy burst of rain came through.

[tinybill]

could be some  very interesting  weather  soon if the radar right  could ger a bit nasty  in places

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Huge huge flash of lightning a double whammy! 

Deep rolling thunder followed finally some weather! 

[MrNooo]

Quite a few flashes and as above very long rolling thunder (at circa 5.30) but seems to have died down now, just heavy rain.

[matt111]

No thunder here but torrential rain here at the moment, noisy enough on it’s own without any thunder!