Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Zak M]

11 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Don’t give up hope just yet. October and November could still deliver. Not summer style storms obviously, but I had two last November. On the 12th, the thunder was loud enough to set off car alarms and a monumental hailstorm followed. From a big standard cyclonic SWerly.

And then you have those one strike wonders at around December/January time

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

14 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Don’t give up hope just yet. October and November could still deliver. Not summer style storms obviously, but I had two last November. On the 12th, the thunder was loud enough to set off car alarms and a monumental hailstorm followed. From a big standard cyclonic SWerly.

But even when the parameters are favourable we have a 20:1 chance of a storm occurring somewhere close by. I don’t really fancy those odds

[Zak M]

Could've just sworn I heard thunder from this??

 

[wimblettben]

15 hours ago, Zak M said:

There's a nice little storm on the coast near Wales. Hoping for some developments soon in the south.

That must have been what produced a number of deep rumbles of thunder and one distant flash of lightning here yesterday evening then.

Amazing to think its the only time we have had nearby thundery activity here for the whole year.

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, wimblettben said:

That must have been what produced a number of deep rumbles of thunder and one distant flash of lightning here yesterday evening then.

Amazing to think its the only time we have had nearby thundery activity here for the whole year.

Ben, are you still in Mere? We had immense electrical storms on the night of Tuesday 23rd July.

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

And then you have those one strike wonders at around December/January time

Indeed. Anything Dec-Feb is a bonus of course.

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

But even when the parameters are favourable we have a 20:1 chance of a storm occurring somewhere close by. I don’t really fancy those odds

Better than nothing I guess.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Indeed. Anything Dec-Feb is a bonus of course.

Better than nothing I guess.

Is this what we’ve been reduced to?  

[Rush2019]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is this what we’ve been reduced to?  

Thunder snow, yes lots of thunder snow, quite rare, but still possible. Ha ha.

Edited September 22, 2019 by Rush2112
Add word

[wimblettben]

3 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

Ben, are you still in Mere? We had immense electrical storms on the night of Tuesday 23rd July.

No, we moved to Wales back in November last year.

I thought the southwest at the time probably had the storms that the uk had back in the summer and judging by your comment looks like I was right.

So far since living here I have to say we have missed pretty much every thundery spell that occurred in the UK.

Personally I didn't want to move anyway but as I have to live with my parents due to mental health problems I had no choice, I would have stayed if I was able to.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Just been directly under the whites and purples on the radar, some crazy rainfall. 

[MP-R]

7 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is this what we’ve been reduced to?  

Rather, it's what we've always been. Thunderstorms have never been regular during the winter months.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

12 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Rather, it's what we've always been. Thunderstorms have never been regular  ̶d̶u̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶t̶e̶r̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶s̶.

 

[biddie]

For the storm phobic the BBC online early warnings of severe storms and online reports have caused chaos this year. They have taken to putting storm symbols for a whole day now even if there is only a slight chance last night there were symbols from about 3 am right up to 3pm today. Not a rumble. They did this no less than about 4 times during the summer and we had nothing. They are showing these warnings up to a week in advance. They never used to do this. The same is showing for tomorrow night and all day Tuesday, though i do think there is something more significant about Tuesday.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, biddie said:

For the storm phobic the BBC online early warnings of severe storms and online reports have caused chaos this year. They have taken to putting storm symbols for a whole day now even if there is only a slight chance last night there were symbols from about 3 am right up to 3pm today. Not a rumble. They did this no less than about 4 times during the summer and we had nothing. They are showing these warnings up to a week in advance. They never used to do this. The same is showing for tomorrow night and all day Tuesday, though i do think there is something more significant about Tuesday.

Tuesday looks significant in terms of potential for fairly active thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over well-populated areas and transport network hotspots.

I agree though, it’s been a little OTT this year - crying wolf isn’t helping anyone there’s got to be a more reasoned response or people just won’t listen on the occasions that the forecasts get it right.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Tonight and into tomorrow looking very plausible for something electrical in the south (maybe even marginally organised?)

[legritter]

Just started raini g here on west mendip .looking at all the charts ,tv weather and internet sites it certainly looks like a very wet 24 hrs and more to follow . Its great reading all the posts ,but i do tend to Lurk in the background. Hoping to be able to post more again ,i have had a very busy two years , but the house is all sorted and i now have a bit more free time again .i am looking forward to whatever Mother nature  throws our  way , cheers to all and STellas all round .

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Tonight and into tomorrow looking very plausible for something electrical in the south (maybe even marginally organised?)

Was going to say.. They are some returns on the models.. Some serious rainfall amounts in a short space of time on soild Rock hard ground in many places... Perfect Recipe for flash flooding 

[Zak M]

Well, I guess tomorrow is another chance for storms. If I get a storm directly overhead me tomorrow, (in the morning, not school hours) I will be a very, happy guy. I haven't had a storm directly overhead me in the UK since 2016.

Just realized that the Met Office have issued a warning for rainfall. It could get interesting here tomorrow.

[Dami]

57 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well, I guess tomorrow is another chance for storms. If I get a storm directly overhead me tomorrow, (in the morning, not school hours) I will be a very, happy guy. I haven't had a storm directly overhead me in the UK since 2016.

Just realized that the Met Office have issued a warning for rainfall. It could get interesting here tomorrow.

I doubt it. Just be rain.

[Mapantz]

After tomorrow's initial rain moves through, the sun will break through across the SW and the possibility for some high SBCAPE values to develop. 600  - 1200 j/kg. So that gives the chance of some quite potent little showers/storms across some Southern areas midday onward. 

[Zak M]

Just noticed that Estofex has issued a forecast today for the SW.

[Zak M]

25 minutes ago, Dami said:

I doubt it. Just be rain.

Tbh the risk of lightning in those morning showers looks quite low, so it probably will be rain. But as Mapantz said, there's a chance of storms in the south midday onwards tomorrow.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Zak M

[Dami]

31 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Tbh the risk of lightning in those morning showers looks quite low, so it probably will be rain. But as Mapantz said, there's a chance of storms in the south midday onwards tomorrow.

The south... Never really think of Bedford as south really, lets see.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

53 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Tbh the risk of lightning in those morning showers looks quite low, so it probably will be rain. But as Mapantz said, there's a chance of storms in the south midday onwards tomorrow.

The (oft slightly psychotic) Ventusky would beg to disagree, putting some fairly hefty storms over our locale from 7am right up until midday. Synoptics look okay too. Won’t expect anything but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on developments

[Mapantz]

21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ventusky would beg to disagree,

You mean, the ICON?