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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London
14 hours ago, zmstorm said:

It's approaching September now. I hope this is a really convective month to really finish this storm season as barely anything convective happens in Bedford in September.

I was thinking about this time of year today.  The next 6 weeks seems like a better time for funnel clouds.  Don't know why, maybe the wind, the low pressure, idk

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Some quite potent showers around the NE at the moment,this just looking towards Newcastle about an hour ago.

 

20190901_132604.thumb.jpg.0fada1cd3041d1583cddd9f7fc56fc1f.jpg

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Looking interesting in a wet and windy way come a week on Tuesday when ex-hurricane Dorian expected to arrive. Some other models have 960s SLAP but certainly the next UK weather event to watch for

SLAP GFS 10.09.19 9am ex hurricane Dorian.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 03 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 04 Sep 2019

ISSUED 07:28 UTC Tue 03 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will approach from the Atlantic on Tuesday, with a frontal system sliding southeastwards across the British Isles. The trailing cold front may contain some embedded elevated convection, particularly on Tuesday night across the Celtic / Irish Seas and feeding into western parts of Britain - but the risk of lightning is considered quite low.

The post-frontal environment will be characterised by cool air aloft atop warm SSTs, generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Periods of showers will affect western Ireland and Scotland through Tuesday evening and night, with a few isolated lightning strikes possible.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-03

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London

Good sporadic morning.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 04 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 05 Sep 2019

ISSUED 05:28 UTC Wed 04 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Wednesday, with a couple hundred J/kg CAPE developing in response to warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Various areas of showers will tend to develop behind the cold front which will clear SE England late morning, but for most areas the depth of convection will be too shallow, and instability too weak, to produce much in the way of lightning. There will also be some longer spells of rain at times across Scotland in particular as the wrap-around occlusion slides eastwards. 

Overall the greatest risk of lightning will be across Scotland and northern England during Wednesday afternoon, but probably fairly isolated. There will most likely be an uptick in some sporadic lightning activity over the North Sea overnight.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-04

IMG_20190904_073735.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Lightning being detected over Norfolk.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

A lot of storms kicking off now to the north. Yesterday they all died-off on approach but today we might at least hear the thunder. For the size of them there’s surprisingly limited electrical activity - but if it was dark right now we’d get an amazing view from the roof terrace, I’m sure

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A lot of storms kicking off now to the north. Yesterday they all died-off on approach but today we might at least hear the thunder. For the size of them there’s surprisingly limited electrical activity - but if it was dark right now we’d get an amazing view from the roof terrace, I’m sure

Don't trust lightningmaps/blitzortung for parts like southern Portugal - most of the strikes aren't detected. When I went to Portugal in 2016 I saw a distant storm that easily had at least 300 strikes in it, it lasted for about 2 and a half hours and there was a flash like every 10 seconds. During that time period, it only detected 7 strikes.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
10 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Don't trust lightningmaps/blitzortung for parts like southern Portugal - most of the strikes aren't detected. When I went to Portugal in 2016 I saw a distant storm that easily had at least 300 strikes in it, it lasted for about 2 and a half hours and there was a flash like every 10 seconds. During that time period, it only detected 7 strikes.

Ha! Good news for us - though the forecast is for clear skies

Would love for some late evening action but I think it will all die off over the next few hours.

Oh well I’m off to Amsterdam hopefully in November and maybe will have some better luck there

Edit: this is to the northeast - look what’s growing behind the trees

E0F8841C-3404-48BF-B4E1-33E901E6FFA6.jpeg

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London
53 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ha! Good news for us - though the forecast is for clear skies

Would love for some late evening action but I think it will all die off over the next few hours.

Oh well I’m off to Amsterdam hopefully in November and maybe will have some better luck there

Edit: this is to the northeast - look what’s growing behind the trees

E0F8841C-3404-48BF-B4E1-33E901E6FFA6.jpeg

Lasso lightning?

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Fourth day running and storms initiating in almost exactly the same spot along the southern part of the border between Spain and Portugal. Hoping today it moves closer to Faro - think we’re under a sea-breeze convergence  

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
23 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Fourth day running and storms initiating in almost exactly the same spot along the southern part of the border between Spain and Portugal. Hoping today it moves closer to Faro - think we’re under a sea-breeze convergence  

Quite an active storm currently to the north of you. Can you hear thunder or is it too far away?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

We flew out this morning  

oh.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
4 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

oh.

To be expected, I usually tend to have bad timing with storms - but at least I didn’t miss anything spectacular in the UK while out there

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Windy.com suggests that storms could develop around the south next week 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Well tomorrow’s potential has downgraded - so I really doubt 10 days out there’s much to look forward to. Complete waste of 3 summer months for the central south again and it’s practically autumn.

Watching a storm forecast to come in from the west and then head south underneath us into the continent is just insulting.

Wet/cloudy weather never does that!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 09 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 10 Sep 2019

ISSUED 20:56 UTC Sun 08 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Disrupting upper trough will form a cut-off upper low over the Celtic Sea by midday Monday, sliding across SW England towards Biscay by midnight Monday night. Consequently the north-south aligned frontal zone will tend to stall across Britain through much of the forecast period, generally weakening with time as the upper forcing runs away to the south. 

The position and track of the upper low will ultimately determine the areas with greatest potential for deep convection, and hence some lightning risk. Current thinking is embedded convection may be ongoing on Monday morning on the rear side of the main frontal precipitation, primarily affecting the Celtic Sea / W Wales / SW England. This will continue to migrate eastwards, while probably decaying by late morning.

However, increasing sunshine across SW England in a rather slack environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates and dry mid-levels may yield 400-600 J/kg CAPE, and encourage scattered showers and/or thunderstorms to develop, particularly during the afternoon hours aided by low-level convergence / orographic forcing. Uncertainty exists given hints of a warm nose in the mid-levels (600mb) which may restrict convective depth, and hence lightning potential - but nonetheless a low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight the main area of interest.

Such slack conditions with moist low-level air have in the past been favourable for funnel clouds / waterspouts, and this remains a possibility over SW England on Monday. The risk of heavy showers may also extend eastwards across Dorset / Hampshire later in the day, but as instability reduces towards evening the risk of lightning here is considered lower (but not zero).

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-09

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Lots of ex-weather passing over us in the next few days but looks like little to no chance of anything sparking off until at least the second half of next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 10 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 11 Sep 2019

ISSUED 20:56 UTC Mon 09 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A few isolated showers will affect primarily coastal parts of East Anglia and SE England on Tuesday morning, but not sufficiently deep for lightning. Otherwise, upper ridging will tend to dominate across the British Isles during the day, largely suppressing any deep convection. On Tuesday evening and night, an approaching Atlantic frontal system - the remnants of ex-Hurricane Dorian - will bring cloud and rain into Northern Ireland and western Scotland, with a low risk of embedded isolated lightning. The risk is greater, albeit still low, with post-frontal showers piling into W / NW Scotland and later in the night the Northern Isles.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-10

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 Sep 2019

ISSUED 19:01 UTC Tue 10 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A split cold front will migrate southeastwards across England and Wales on Wednesday, with a shallow moist zone providing the focus for a line of heavy showers to develop around midday and through the afternoon, across the Midlands / Yorks / Lincs and into East Anglia / Home Counties. However, the depth of convection will be very shallow, and so lightning is considered unlikely (and hence no threat levels introduced).

Elsewhere, scattered showers will affect NW Scotland and the Northern Isles, but despite a strongly-sheared environment the depth of convection here will also be too shallow for much in the way of lightning - but the odd isolated strike cannot be ruled out.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-11

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Sep 2019

ISSUED 18:19 UTC Wed 11 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

While the remnants of ex-Tropical Storm Gabrielle slide eastwards across Scotland, to the north of the main frontal rain scattered showers will continue to affect W Scotland and the Northern Isles. Convective depth will be rather shallow, which combined with generally weak instability suggests any lightning will be very isolated at best.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-12

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