Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looking quite good for Sutton in the next hour or so... hopefully can find somewhere rural and high up to observe. Some lovely cloudscapes about and blue sky overhead

[Zak M]

Nice rumbles of thunder and some nice lightning here.

Edited August 19, 2019 by zmstorm

[Zak M]

Anvil o'clock

[Zak M]

That Cambridge storm has only been around for less than 5 minutes and has a very frequent strike rate 

[Another Kent clipper]

Medium rare please

[TJS1998Tom]

Got some dark clouds to my east from a heavy cell a few miles away but not expecting anything here. Though these storms look decent 

[Lu.]

Rain was crazy at times. No show for the thunder tho. Here’s hoping for something later

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

49 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Got some dark clouds to my east from a heavy cell a few miles away but not expecting anything here. Though these storms look decent 

Drove through that lot near Ely. Big hail and some decent well defined forks! 

Best homegrown storm I’ve seen in quite a while! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Missed some strikes around Epsom because of the slew of temporary traffic lights across London. They are literally everywhere at the moment. Didn’t realise how close I was to Epsom downs racecourse but by the time of arrival the storm was already past - very quick moving.

Also couldn’t remember where the north-facing vantage point was, so a 3/10 for that storm based on lack of preparedness

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Another sharp thunderstorm kicking off near Funtington and Cocking.

(I just wanted to say Funtington and Cocking)

[Lu.]

Just saw that lot flash up on Blitz! Mind you the columbus clouds I can see here are massive, and high up - Impressive sights really.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

50 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Just saw that lot flash up on Blitz! Mind you the columbus clouds I can see here are massive, and high up - Impressive sights really.

They seem to be losing their dynamics quickly though. Got as far as Alfold and they look rather innocuous now.

Oh well - plume next week

[Zak M]

12 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

They seem to be losing their dynamics quickly though. Got as far as Alfold and they look rather innocuous now.

Oh well - plume next week

Spanish?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

42 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Spanish?

I prefer Italian, but Spanish will do

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

All these storms have done is made me go to a random pub and stuff my face with crisps.

 

Edited August 19, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Zak M]

 

[Weather-history]

 

[Another Kent clipper]

Ooh, I'm nearly in the grey zone.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Aug 2019

ISSUED 06:04 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather messy pattern on Tuesday, with an upper trough gradually departing eastern England while an upper ridge builds across Ireland - neither particularly pronounced. The surface pattern is rather slack with weak ridging. Frontal boundaries provide the focus for low-level moisture and convergence, with convective overturning through the day helping to aid the development of scattered showers. Other showers are expected to develop within the warm sector over Ireland too.

In most cases, weak shear, fairly saturated profiles and marginal instability suggest the risk of lightning from a given shower is rather low. However, isolated pockets of sporadic lightning may be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-20

[LightningLover]

15 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

They seem to be losing their dynamics quickly though. Got as far as Alfold and they look rather innocuous now.

Oh well - plume next week

I’m certainly not trying to be negative when I say this, but... isn’t it supposed to be HP dominated heat? As opposed to a heat pump/Cut off low scenario?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

I’m certainly not trying to be negative when I say this, but... isn’t it supposed to be HP dominated heat? As opposed to a heat pump/Cut off low scenario?

Yeah I think you’re right, but either way it’s better than cloudy

[LightningLover]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yeah I think you’re right, but either way it’s better than cloudy

Indeed!

[NL]

18 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I prefer Italian, but Spanish will do

I think Lu prefers Italian storms going by her post refering to Columbus clouds..!!

I managed to capture lightning from the last storms we had here just over a week ago.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 21 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 22 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:38 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper ridge will slowly exit to the North Sea on Wednesday morning, as an upper low approaches the British Isles from the Atlantic. An active frontal zone will spread a band of cloud and heavy rain across Ireland and Scotland, reaching NW England later in the afternoon. 

Elevated showers are likely to be located over the Celtic Sea at the beginning of this forecast period, drifting northeastwards across Wales / Midlands / northern England through the morning and afternoon. Additional surface-based showers may develop in response to diurnal heating, but in either case weak instability, limited convective depth and fairly moist profiles suggests any lightning will be rather isolated.

Elsewhere, ahead of the front a tongue of relatively high Theta-W will be advected northwards. Shear will increase substantially along the front during the afternoon as a notable mid-level jet rounds the base of the upper low. Elements of line convection may develop on the rear-side of the main frontal rain, although depth of convection will generally be too shallow for much in the way of lightning - though this perhaps most likely across parts of Scotland late afternoon / evening hours.

Behind the front, upper cold pool will overspread NW Scotland through Wednesday night, steepening mid-level lapse rates and generating numerous showers - although any lightning activity will probably be quite isolated.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-21 

Edited August 20, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Zak M]

Well that's a sign of something to come 

Edited August 21, 2019 by zmstorm

[Ryukai]

2 hours ago, zmstorm said:

Well that's a sign of something to come 

Similar to what's showing up for where I live but with possible lightning between 2pm and 7 pm