Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Allezwasps.]

1 hour ago, zmstorm said:

Here is the video of that distant thunderstorm.

Look to the left of the thin red tower to see some flashes.

 

very impressive that's a long way past the sandy heath mast !!!!

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, zmstorm said:

@Supacell Guessing you heard thunder?

 

1 hour ago, sjamess90 said:

@zmstormI live down the road in the next town from @Supacell can confirm we got one clap of thunder in the last 10 mins or so.

I didn't hear any thunder, but then I am at work a few miles from Belper. I did notice the sferics on lightning detector so did wonder as the rain on the radar was nothing spectacular at the time.

[Allseasons-Si]

 

Give it a chance @sparky1972,a clearance coming in from the west now should aid surface heating,i would say later this afternoon into the evening,cape values of 500-600j/kg and lifted indexes of -1 to -2 increase with dewpoints of 15-16c later

cape/Li,dew points and convective clouds

 

met office

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451692800&date=2019-08-14&id=09df0131-989b-4f56-98fa-b14775c4344e

convective weather

https://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

estofex.

http://www.estofex.org/

[TJS1998Tom]

Trying to brighten up a bit here. Hopefully that'll mean something for later though can't see much storms happening today. 

[Allseasons-Si]

I was looking at the showers getting going over in Ireland earlier and are now producing sferics,maybe it's this area that we want to watch.

[biddie]

This weather warning for today has been there 2 days and yet nothing.

Edited August 14, 2019 by biddie

[Norfolk Sheep]

Super fabulous awesome rain! I'm beyond thrilled!! 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, biddie said:

This weather warning for today has been there 2 days and yet nothing.

Lol you only just noticed? Thought it had been there for weeks

Edited August 14, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[biddie]

Sorry i didnt mean on here. I mean met office one

[Gordon Webb]

2 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Trying to brighten up a bit here. Hopefully that'll mean something for later though can't see much storms happening today. 

Hasn't brightened up at all here today , I mean if I said it had tried to brighten up I would be overstating it , 

[TJS1998Tom]

These cells near Derby have picked up a bit though might be too late for any lightning potential 

[sjamess90]

29 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

These cells near Derby have picked up a bit though might be too late for any lightning potential 

Some substantially heavy downpours but not producing anything too exciting.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 15 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 16 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:37 UTC Wed 14 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A frontal zone straddling the North Sea and also affecting the Northern Isles may produce some sporadic lightning in places on Thursday daytime (moreso southern half of the North Sea). Any lightning risk for Orkney/Shetland should cease by midday as the frontal zone clears eastwards from the area.

Scattered heavy showers are possible in Northern Ireland during the afternoon hours, but the depth of convective will likely be too shallow for lightning.

The next Atlantic frontal system will arrive across Ireland through Thursday evening and night, spreading cloud and outbreaks of rain gradually eastwards. Strong shear may encourage some elements of line convection to develop within the frontal precipitation, although weak instability and saturated profiles suggests the lightning risk is very low.

Similarly a shallow moist zone (SMZ) is likely to evolve over western Ireland towards Friday morning as mid/upper-level dry intrusion overspreads the moist low-level airmass. While some heavy bursts of showery rain may develop, once again the risk of lightning is considered very low.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-15

[WillinGlossop]

Heavy 20 minute downpour....more rain yey....not.... more over Merseyside heading this way....

[Had Worse]

Hi Will, watching the same area. Knew I should have left that storm shield in Cornwall. It seems to be working to its full potential up here. 

[WillinGlossop]

24 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Hi Will, watching the same area. Knew I should have left that storm shield in Cornwall. It seems to be working to its full potential up here. 

Hi... more rain though...not much lightning yet.... lookslike more like thunder maybe this weekend

the last two weeks been having new doors, windows, bifold doors fitted...not great weather for it... 

swapping with you and heading to sw England next weekend going to Bournemouth game then down to my mums in Somerset for five days.... hoping for dry weather down there.... 

[Zak M]

Anyone know if there is a chance of thundery rain overnight tonight? Some sites like the BBC are forecasting some thundery rain.

[Another Kent clipper]

15 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Anyone know if there is a chance of thundery rain overnight tonight? Some sites like the BBC are forecasting some thundery rain.

I don't know, but I've heard that they eat thundery rain for breakfast in Florida.  In the winter

[Another Kent clipper]

For the three people that live under the green section....oh hang on there's entire cities in there (edit)

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 16 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 17 Aug 2019

ISSUED 06:14 UTC Fri 16 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An Atlantic frontal system will slide progressively eastwards across the British Isles, bringing an extensive area of frontal rain. Strong shear may encourage some embedded elements of line convection in places, but weak instability, saturated profiles and shallow convective depth suggests little to no lightning is expected.

Behind the main frontal band, residual low-level moisture will linger until the surface cold front moves through, with surface dewpoints of 15-17C likely over SE Ireland and the Celtic Sea overlain by a marked mid/upper-level dry intrusion. A subtle shortwave and vorticity maximum aloft may cause the front to buckle over SE Ireland during the late afternoon, with a wave possibly developing on the cold front thermal boundary (probably only identifiable by surface observations due to the lack of any noteworthy frontal rain expected). This, combined with some lift from the Wicklow mountains, may encourage a few scattered showers to develop near the Dublin vicinity, before heading northeastwards across the Irish Sea during the evening hours. 

With 40kts DLS and some reasonable low-level helicity, a low-topped supercell may be possible, heading towards NW England by mid-evening. Lightning activity is questionable given weak CAPE and potentially limited cloud depth, but some sporadic lightning would be possible. Confidence on this is very low given a lack of notable multi-model support (hence only treated as a low-end SLGT), however it is noted that the EURO4 has remained remarkably consistent run-on-run at simulating a supercell-like shower taking a trajectory from birth over E Ireland towards Cumbria - not to be taken literally of course, and the track is different with each run, but given its good handling in a similar setup on 14th June, it is something to consider. Some sporadic lightning may also develop elsewhere over NW / N England during the evening hours along the northern periphery of the main frontal rain, perhaps also affecting N Wales initially.

Elsewhere, scattered showers will affect Ireland and Scotland periodically once the early frontal rain has cleared, although marginal instability and fairly widespread coverage of showers makes it hard to be more specific as to where a few isolated lightning strikes may occur. Once focus may be eastern Scotland for a short window early evening.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-16

Edited August 16, 2019 by Another Kent clipper

[Zak M]

Just now, Another Kent clipper said:

I don't know, but I've heard that they eat thundery rain for breakfast in Florida.  In the winter

Tbh there's a much more chance of thundery rain in Florida being in the summer then in the winter. I was told by a local in Florida that in their winters it's usually around 16 degrees with sunshine.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like no more convective fun for the foreseeable future

[Zak M]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looks like no more convective fun for the foreseeable future

Keep an eye out for Thursday next week. It's quite far away at the moment so it could change although it looks like a convective day.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, zmstorm said:

Keep an eye out for Thursday next week. It's quite far away at the moment so it could change although it looks like a convective day.

Cheers for the heads up, anything would be nice but from my checks earlier it doesn’t look like anything of note near us for that day.

This time of year it should be generally warmer and there should be some decent spells of thundery weather down our way, but it’s been feeling like a mild autumn for the last fortnight.

Hoping for a change to something more summery soon, but if not we’ll be in Portugal in a couple of weeks so a promise of sun on the horizon...

Not much chance of storms out there but at least it won’t be cloudy and raining all the time

Edited August 16, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[TJS1998Tom]

If only... 

[Zak M]

As there is no convective activity happening here at the moment, I wanted to share this.

This strike was at Busch Gardens in Tampa, on my holiday in Florida. I said about this a few weeks ago.

This strike struck around 300-400 meters away, and the thunder was so loud that everyone around me was screaming.

This is a close strike, but not as close as some of the other strikes I have witnessed on my holiday.

 

Edited August 16, 2019 by zmstorm