Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

19 minutes ago, Lu. said:

What is this type? What dose it mean

Yeah it’s a sign of unstable air

 I read on CW that this would move from France into the channel tonight and hopefully should lead to a series of potent showers and thunderstorms

looks like you might be in a good spot

[Norfolk Sheep]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Not even much in the way of rain in Norfolk, everything passing to the north or south. Never mind storm starved, we're rain starved  

[Thunderstruck]

Just heard distant thunder which took me by complete surprise as I only got back from holiday yesterday and have been out of the loop for the last week

[Weather-history]

 

[staplehurst]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not sure about the channel lighting up?!

 

Mainly after midnight, and moreso towards the very end of the night into the morning 'proper' - though should add this is not a plume event, this is typical autumn surface-based convection over warm seas that then develop more widely inland as surface temperatures warm through the day on Monday. It will be hit-and-miss, not widespread.

Edited August 11, 2019 by staplehurst

[poseidon]

Certainly more lively than I thought it'd be today. Unfortunately, they all seemed to just miss this area. Although, I can see the lightning from the cell just South of here. I considered driving up to Cambridge again but in the end couldn't be bothered. Did get a few pics though:

Big gust front as line of heavy showers passed over:

           

View of impressive thunderstorm tower SW of Cambridge:

 

[Click the pic to view a large image]

Edited August 11, 2019 by poseidon

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 12 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 13 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:29 UTC Sun 11 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad upper trough will cover the British Isles on Monday, creating an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and unstable to warm SSTs and/or diurnal heating inland. Showers and a few thunderstorms will already be ongoing over the English Channel and parts of SE England on Monday morning, bringing the risk of localised surface water flooding and perhaps some hail. These may clear eastwards for a time, but any additional surface heating will likely result in further scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms late morning and into the afternoon hours, before clearing by the evening. The odd weak waterspout may be possible.

Elsewhere, scattered showers will already be affecting some Atlantic coastal regions on Monday morning, and will move inland / develop more widely through the day. For the most part CAPE will be quite weak and/or skinny, and while isolated lightning may occur the overall risk in most areas is considered sub-SLGT. Deeper convection, with greater instability and steeper lapse rates, is expected over Ireland, and here greater potential for some sporadic lightning from the strongest cells. Shear is rather weak until late afternoon, and so more "pulse type" convection is expected. Some small hail will be possible locally.

One other area of interest could be Yorkshire for a time during the afternoon hours, but confidence on lightning activity is not high enough to upgrade to SLGT at this stage.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-12

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Well nothing looks like happening until at least a few hours’ time. So heading off to bed. Meh

[Zak M]

Why are there heavy showers developing now north of me? 

[LightningLover]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not sure about the channel lighting up?!

 

I think it will... Guidance seems to have been fairly consistent, and the simulated MO radar is showing some interest... Time will tell!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just tested the lightning alarm app. Entered Plzen as my location to test but then forgot about it.

Just a moment ago it went off and made me jump 

[Lu.]

MO seems to think 3am something could stir this end. Camera ready for balcony shots, but doubt ill head out for this.

[Lu.]

10 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Just tested the lightning alarm app. Entered Plzen as my location to test but then forgot about it.

Just a moment ago it went off and made me jump 

Is this with Lightening tracker?

If so, just be aware that, it makes me jump out of my skin if it dose go off - more so if at early hours. The wife has also cursed

I set it to 20 miles max if im staying at hers

[Zak M]

Ventusky suggests that one or two thunderstorms are likely behind a pile of rain around the south Midlands, Central Southern England, East Anglia or North London on Wednesday.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

16 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Is this with Lightening tracker?

If so, just be aware that, it makes me jump out of my skin if it dose go off - more so if at early hours. The wife has also cursed

I set it to 20 miles max if im staying at hers

Ah no ‘Lightning Alarm’ - it plays the sound of thunder, quite a good sample too.

Scary as wibble when you don’t expect it

[Lu.]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ah no ‘Lightning Alarm’ - it plays the sound of thunder, quite a good sample too. 

Scary as wibble when you don’t expect it

Yes this has 3 types of thunder sounds.. Im just downloading the one you mentioned

 

@zmstorm take Ventusky with a pinch of salt. Few weeks back as Flash Bang mentioned it was on drugs. Past week (to me) its been unreliable.. Its handy to have, by all means. But me personally I dont rely on it anymore.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Yes this has 3 types of thunder sounds.. Im just downloading the one you mentioned

 

@zmstorm take Ventusky with a pinch of salt. Few weeks back as Flash Bang mentioned it was on drugs. Past week (to me) its been unreliable.. Its handy to have, by all means. But me personally I dont rely on it anymore.

Good example - set it to precipitation and move between the ‘now’ frame and the next, it’s kind of vaguely similar but you’ll immediately notice a lot of difference - especially with the density and strength of storms.

As Lu says, it’s useful but don’t hang ur hat on it unless you like unpleasant surprises  

[Zak M]

1 hour ago, Lu. said:

Yes this has 3 types of thunder sounds.. Im just downloading the one you mentioned

 

@zmstorm take Ventusky with a pinch of salt. Few weeks back as Flash Bang mentioned it was on drugs. Past week (to me) its been unreliable.. Its handy to have, by all means. But me personally I dont rely on it anymore.

Yeah in the middle of typing that it did seem a bit funny. Wednesday is also quite far away atm so it has room to change.

[tomp456]

Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn that was loud thunder 

[philglossop]

Nice distance flash to the south just now as  I got up for work.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Thunderstorm just off the Worthing coast?

That escalated quickly

[LightningLover]

We just had a heavy convective shower.

[Chris.R]

Looks like a window of opportunity for some great ocean effect convection tonight here. Between around 21:00-03:00 we have a cold pool with T500s down to -25.5 and modest CAPE. Looks very similar to the early hours of the 10th August last year which gave me an amazing thunderstorm. Let’s see what happens. 

[sunnijim]

Convective heavy downpours here.

The cat has gone into hiding,a sign of thunder or fireworks.

Nothing seen or heard yet mind,but the whiskers may sense something..

.

[Summer Sun]