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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

Strong T-Storm here in Edinburgh just now , been crazy really just how many big storms the east of the central belt has had this summer 

There seems to have been more storms in Scotland than Kent clippers this year

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:38 UTC Sat 10 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Sunday, the main cold pool tracking over the Celtic Sea and southern Britain / English Channel. This will create an environment with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding 300-500 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating inland / seasonally warm SSTs. 

Scattered showers are expected to affect central / southern parts of Britain in particular, moving generally to the E or ENE - perhaps organised into one or two distinct SW-NE bands aided by low-level convergence. Despite reasonably-sheared profiles, CAPE will be rather skinny with notably dry mid/upper levels - this may act as a cap limiting convective depth, and hence lightning potential. However, any convection that can grow deep enough into the dry air aloft could produce some sporadic lightning given the increased potential instability (in an already sheared environment). A low-end SLGT has been issued, but it is inevitable many areas will remain void of lightning. The best potential appears to be farther south, where the deepest convection is most likely (a zone from Somerset/Dorset northeastwards to East Anglia).

Overnight, most showers inland will fade away as diurnal heating subsides, but scattered showers will arrive from the Atlantic over western Ireland and western Scotland, while other heavy showers and a few thunderstorms develop over parts of the English Channel as instability increases.

This is more akin to an autumn/early winter type setup.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-11

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
40 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

There seems to have been more storms in Scotland than Kent clippers this year

Better not hear any whingeing about a lack of storms for the NE/NW/Scotland in 2020 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:38 UTC Sat 10 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Sunday, the main cold pool tracking over the Celtic Sea and southern Britain / English Channel. This will create an environment with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding 300-500 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating inland / seasonally warm SSTs. 

Scattered showers are expected to affect central / southern parts of Britain in particular, moving generally to the E or ENE - perhaps organised into one or two distinct SW-NE bands aided by low-level convergence. Despite reasonably-sheared profiles, CAPE will be rather skinny with notably dry mid/upper levels - this may act as a cap limiting convective depth, and hence lightning potential. However, any convection that can grow deep enough into the dry air aloft could produce some sporadic lightning given the increased potential instability (in an already sheared environment). A low-end SLGT has been issued, but it is inevitable many areas will remain void of lightning. The best potential appears to be farther south, where the deepest convection is most likely (a zone from Somerset/Dorset northeastwards to East Anglia).

Overnight, most showers inland will fade away as diurnal heating subsides, but scattered showers will arrive from the Atlantic over western Ireland and western Scotland, while other heavy showers and a few thunderstorms develop over parts of the English Channel as instability increases.

This is more akin to an autumn/early winter type setup.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-11

Guess who's in the SLGT? ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Unfortunately, if the conveyor belt of rain doesn't stop soon, I can see serious flooding problems in the Lake District .

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Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)

Estofex forecast out...

2019081206_201908102155_2_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.b1b0a65f3ace5b88433cbc45b8c6b1f8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 11 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 12 Aug 2019

ISSUED 06:56 UTC Sun 11 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 06:56 UTC SLGT extended across East Anglia and SW England

An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Sunday, the main cold pool tracking over the Celtic Sea and southern Britain / English Channel. This will create an environment with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates, yielding 300-500 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating inland / seasonally warm SSTs. 

Scattered showers are expected to affect central / southern parts of Britain in particular, moving generally to the E or ENE - perhaps organised into one or two distinct SW-NE bands aided by low-level convergence. Despite reasonably-sheared profiles, CAPE will be rather skinny with notably dry mid/upper levels - this may act as a cap limiting convective depth, and hence lightning potential. However, any convection that can grow deep enough into the dry air aloft could produce some sporadic lightning given the increased potential instability (in an already sheared environment). A low-end SLGT has been issued, but it is inevitable many areas will remain void of lightning. The best potential appears to be farther south, where the deepest convection is most likely (a zone from Somerset/Dorset northeastwards to East Anglia).

Overnight, most showers inland will fade away as diurnal heating subsides, but scattered showers will arrive from the Atlantic over western Ireland and western Scotland, while other heavy showers and a few thunderstorms develop over parts of the English Channel as instability increases. This is more akin to an autumn/early winter type setup.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-11

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Showers are becoming even more heavy now. No signs of thundery activity yet.

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Posted
  • Location: spalding lincolnshire
  • Location: spalding lincolnshire
6 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Showers are becoming even more heavy now. No signs of thundery activity yet.

I'm hopeful in the line of them showers. Maybe they will turn thundery 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Some lightning showing on lightningmaps.org now!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

First heavy shower of the day now approaching me. Looks quite ominous.

IMG_6232[1].JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

A few flashes and rumbles near Wells recently.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Hot
  • Location: London

Having recently driven underneath on the M1, I wouldn't be surprised if this line stuff develops rotation this afternoon.  Despite being nowhere near tall enough for lightning (about an hour ago), the cloud bases looked prime for a bit of spinny spinny

Screenshot_20190811-132617.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper
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Posted
  • Location: spalding lincolnshire
  • Location: spalding lincolnshire
5 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Having recently driven underneath on the M1, I wouldn't be surprised if this line stuff develops rotation this afternoon.  Despite being nowhere near tall enough for lightning (about an hour ago), the cloud bases looked prime for a bit of spinny spinny

Screenshot_20190811-132617.png

Might go out and have a drive see what can see 

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
10 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Having recently driven underneath on the M1, I wouldn't be surprised if this line stuff develops rotation this afternoon.  Despite being nowhere near tall enough for lightning (about an hour ago), the cloud bases looked prime for a bit of spinny spinny

Screenshot_20190811-132617.png

A potential bite of the spinsburger?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

That looks like a nasty storm to the east of Wells.

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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
37 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Having recently driven underneath on the M1, I wouldn't be surprised if this line stuff develops rotation this afternoon.  Despite being nowhere near tall enough for lightning (about an hour ago), the cloud bases looked prime for a bit of spinny spinny

Screenshot_20190811-132617.png

amazing how quickly that has gone from a few showers to extremely heavy rain. (very large raindrops too). 15-20 minutes it has lasted (Daventry).

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

The line of showers is visible from my front window.

IMG_6233[1].JPG

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
19 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

That looks like a nasty storm to the east of Wells.

It does... can see the tops of the clouds easily from Brownsea Island in Poole!

7AE85E11-ED86-4E0C-8BFA-FD1DC665481C.jpeg

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