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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Good view of the showers passing just to the north of Southampton  

9E976E57-4FEF-468E-97AF-E31D8CDBC435.jpeg

781F577B-EBDC-47BD-B65E-F5D0578C751A.jpeg

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wow what a storm, lost count how many that is now this year, gutters overflowing, thunder but the main things were the intensity of the rain and possible rotation as about a third of the way into the storm sudden gusts with rain swirling in all directions, have some videos so will try and get them uploaded at some point, yet again flooding will be an issue here.

IMG_20190807_133402.thumb.jpg.6f61f11ae7fe39bf2255e012e20bfe95.jpgIMG_20190807_133417.thumb.jpg.d60458374d6df0a5d81d18ffecff6c6b.jpgIMG_20190807_133419.thumb.jpg.2f53d744049786b3f96a2bb01a622085.jpgIMG_20190807_133429.thumb.jpg.c9b4610a8a2a124d892a367cd816d1f8.jpgIMG_20190807_133430.thumb.jpg.e75d1575cc5b7edbdc220c14f80ea891.jpgIMG_20190807_133505.thumb.jpg.006becc1d93e685940f842f75eaf69bd.jpgIMG_20190807_133539.thumb.jpg.fbf004ecadcb3b5208b9a13349b7bf96.jpg

Hello Kirkcaldy 

Were you indoors behind glass when taking these photos? 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hello Kirkcaldy 

Were you indoors behind glass when taking these photos? 

Hi, no those were taken outdoors, followed by a quick move indoors because I knew intense rainfall was coming. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Hi, no those were taken outdoors, followed by a quick move indoors because I knew intense rainfall was coming. 

Ok great, Thanks for that. Well in Photo Four there is a strange looking object! Could be bag i suppose or something like that. Just looked strange.

 

Nice photos BTW of those angry clouds with possible rotations.  Next time you see those maybe do a 5 minute time lapse if you have iphone or camera. You'll see what those clouds are doing in  a better view.

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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)

Got a thunderstorm passing over right now. Clouds looked amazing, but rain started before I could get a piccie. Was more concerne with getting panicky horses in without getting killed in the process. Saw hints of slight rotation, but rain started to quickly for a good enough look.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
6 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Wow what a storm, lost count how many that is now this year, gutters overflowing, thunder but the main things were the intensity of the rain and possible rotation as about a third of the way into the storm sudden gusts with rain swirling in all directions, have some videos so will try and get them uploaded at some point, yet again flooding will be an issue here.

IMG_20190807_133402.thumb.jpg.6f61f11ae7fe39bf2255e012e20bfe95.jpgIMG_20190807_133417.thumb.jpg.d60458374d6df0a5d81d18ffecff6c6b.jpgIMG_20190807_133419.thumb.jpg.2f53d744049786b3f96a2bb01a622085.jpgIMG_20190807_133429.thumb.jpg.c9b4610a8a2a124d892a367cd816d1f8.jpgIMG_20190807_133430.thumb.jpg.e75d1575cc5b7edbdc220c14f80ea891.jpgIMG_20190807_133505.thumb.jpg.006becc1d93e685940f842f75eaf69bd.jpgIMG_20190807_133539.thumb.jpg.fbf004ecadcb3b5208b9a13349b7bf96.jpg

One of my videos from that storm, possible rotation at around 7:30 / 8:00 mark with gusty winds and rain swirling in all directions 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 08 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 09 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:31 UTC Wed 07 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper ridge will build across the British Isles on Thursday, largely suppressing deep convection. However, isolated showers are likely across parts of Scotland in particular, but generally weak instability and limited cloud depth suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.

The main interest during this forecast period will be during Thursday night. An upper trough over the mid North Atlantic will swing northeastwards, encouraging northward advection of subtropical moisture towards the British Isles. A warm front will mark the boundary of this high Theta-W air, which will gradually spread northwards across the English Channel / Celtic Sea, then southern and central Britain and Ireland through the overnight period.

Pockets of elevated convection will be possible embedded within the main frontal rain, which will arrive over SW England during Thursday afternoon - but the window of best potential for deep moist convection (and hence lightning activity) will be within the warm sector / behind the main warm frontal rain as low-levels continue to warm (and moisten) while subtle cooling aloft occurs, ultimately steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability.

On the forward side of the upper trough, large-scale forced ascent (particularly associated with the cold front) combined with elements of isentropic upglide will likely result in scattered elevated thunderstorms developing over parts of the Celtic Sea and western England Channel during the second half of Thursday evening, with other elevated thunderstorms sporadically developing as they drift NNE-wards through the night hours.

The exact coverage of lightning activity is questionable due to a combination of fairly saturated profiles (which will serve to reduce lightning potential) and also due to the bifurcating upper flow, which will tend to steer cells near SW England / S Wales towards the NNE, while cells near Ireland will drift more to the NNW, potentially leaving a relative minima of activity in-between. The areas with the greatest lightning potential are highlighted by the low-end MDT, but sporadic lightning will be possible elsewhere within the SLGT during the early hours of Friday from more localised pockets of mid-level instability release. 

There is often more uncertainty with elevated thunderstorms (such as in this case) than surface-based thunderstorms, and hence the risk areas tend to be a lot broader - and it is expected quite a few places even within the SLGT/MDT will remain void of lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-08

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

After taking a look at the UKV and a few other models, I had a feeling an MDT may appear. Good work! 

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Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)

Nice, hopefully a double-yolker for Friday!

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

Looks like a few potential bites of the scone over the next 48 hours - but I’m hoping some clear skies allow for some good visibility of distant storms during the night hours. This might not be possible as it’s more of a giant sheet of rain passing over and will be less frontal or banded (like last week’s low).

I really doubt anything will pass directly overhead here - as usual the forecasts suggest it but in reality we are missing key parameters at the moment over central areas and it’s on average 1 in 5 moderate risks that actually verify.

Another nowcasting scenario, but grateful for some potential at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Tomorrow morning and early afternoon looks really nice here as well as possibly early morning. Feeling hopeful but I will keep my towel ready as I have seemed to need it for the last few events. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk

Seems I'll be getting a predicted mammoth 5mm of rainfall. That's really going to make a difference.....

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
47 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Not even a 50% chance of lightning from Estofex! Seems odd to me. 

Used to have a lot of faith in ESTOFEX but has faded considerably and since ConvectiveWeather have come about these are my absolute go to. Absolutely nail it every time so.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
57 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Seems I'll be getting a predicted mammoth 5mm of rainfall. That's really going to make a difference.....

Just watched the Met's mid-morning forecast...tomorrow's 24C and heavy showers have mutated into dry, sunny and 26C!:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

I'm back from Florida.

Just had a look at the chances of anything thundery in Bedford for Thursday night/Friday morning. The chance is there although I'm probably going to sleep through it all because I'm soooo tired.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
48 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Used to have a lot of faith in ESTOFEX but has faded considerably and since ConvectiveWeather have come about these are my absolute go to. Absolutely nail it every time so.

Dunno about ‘nailing it every time’ but I do regularly see a marked difference in what both agencies forecast - and more regularly than not CW are more on the money.

Guess if we lived in Central Europe we would probably be saying the opposite - I have a feeling someone at estofex nudges the forecaster and reminds them each day that there’s that green bit of land near France that sometimes gets thundery rain and might be worth a mention once in a while

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

There’s currently a lot of strong convection going on around here and over Liverpool way at the moment. :bomb::oldsmile:

0FBA8930-FEA0-4B6B-80EE-138969C70845.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
17 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

I'm back from Florida.

Just had a look at the chances of anything thundery in Bedford for Thursday night/Friday morning. The chance is there although I'm probably going to sleep through it all because I'm soooo tired.

I think anything popping up local to you from now on will be a damp squib...especially after those spectacular thunderstorms in Florida!  (Really is the perfect place for heat/thunderstorms)

Thanks for sharing all the pictures/videos - fantastic viewing! Brought back memories of my few visits there over the years! 

Thunderstorm warnings again up here for Friday and Saturday - looking at the charts/models this fantastic spell of mayhem should be coming to an end soon after.

734871C4-40BB-4725-83EF-55418689399B.thumb.png.af0137695431b6ffb944b3a484810a16.png5FEC06E1-AF10-40A7-BA94-F9C349751687.thumb.png.d6fabaeacd9446658de3fb2da1d0611f.png

It has been pretty much relentless here since July 31st.

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