Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

A few light showers close by but otherwise nothing happening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes a few natty bits on radar to the SW. Wondering just how much of the precipitation is making it to the ground though.

Nothing big was forecast for this period anyway; it's all expected to go bang later this afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

Update from PJB

10:00 Update 

Changes to Risk Boxes - None 

Detail 

The 05Z Nottingham ascent demonstrates the changes taking place in the lower and upper atmosphere quite nicely as GPH is eroded as a more cyclonic upper air pattern begins to move in from the west. The Ascent shows slowly warming at the 850mb level and slight cooling aloft. It also shows the slowly increasing and more favourable upper level kinematic environment. At 850mbs a zone of higher Theta-W is moving north across Central Southern England and this will find its way across Northern England during the afternoon. This higher Theta-W Plume will manifest itself as 850mb Theta-W >16C as we go through the afternoon and translate to fuel surface based storms which are likely to fire across Northern England. 

At the surface a prefrontal trough is moving across Wales, SSW winds behind the trough and SSE or SE winds ahead of the trough moving NNW across the Midlands and into Northern England . Temperatures are already approaching 20-21C across these areas and HRV imagery indicates only cold Ice cloud spreading north across the Midlands, though some thicker Alto-status or Alto-cumulus across CS England. Airmass imagery depicts a zone of increased vorticity moving NNE and this is indicated in the various model output which shows an area of increased 700mb, 500mb and 300mb Vorticity moving NE associated with a shortwave moving NE ahead of the main cyclonic vorticity centre. At 500mbs and 300mbs there is an increase in Jet Energy over Southern England, so some additional shear vorticity is likely to spread across Northern England from this Jet and at the same time we will see a strengthening 
SSE Jet moving NE across Ireland and Northern England finds itself under a positive area of enhanced divergence aloft as the two Jet's come together. 

Storms are likely to erupt across NE Wales, NW Midlands, and the Greater Manchester area and towards Derbyshire during the afternoon and move NE wards. SSW Trajectories, though if they climb high enough more likely to be steered eastwards across the Pennines and towards the Sheffield area. 

Modifying the Ascent at Nottingham to a temp of 24C and DP 15/16C yields significant CAPE available at over 1300 j/kg MUCAPE . Storms routed to the surface where the highest Theta- W will be located ,however the storms also will tap into the increased energy at 850mb as the zone of higher Theta-W moves and advects NE across N England. The most energy available therefore across the PURPLE BOX area on the risk map. Storms have the possibility to give very heavy or torrential rain. Given the areas likely to be affected there is scope for significant further flooding to already damaged areas and areas under recent flood warning and flood watches. 

Fig 1- Storm Risk Map 
Fig 2- Hirlam Streamlines showing the confluence and convergence across N England during the afternoon . 
Fig 3 - Arpege 850mb Theta- W Showing the zone of highest Theta-W during the afternoon , Storms likely to tap into this additional favourable environment and use it as additional fuel for storms. 
Fig 4 - Jet Energy increasing through the afternoon. Deep Layer Shear increasing and the overall kinematic environment increasingly favourable .
Fig 5 - Nottingham modified ascent. 

spacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.png

 

Edit - Images Are very small and don't enlarge when clicked upon

go here

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/122052-convective-outlook-sunday-4th-august-2019/

to see them in enlarged size when clicked upon

Edited by Gordon Webb
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Hope I don’t end up too far west again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Winds are now starting to back more SE’ly in the primed areas, as per XC weather observations, ahead of the trough. This should add to convergence, and will be better aid for starting rotation. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Surface wind looks to veer on-shore here behind the trough which I’m worried might cut short my risk window.  Then again the sea should be warm enough by now and steering winds will still be from the S. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Snow, Thunder
  • Location: Garforth, Leeds 86m asl

Sharp showers on radar to the southeast of Leeds are elevated by the looks of it... 20190804_134953.thumb.jpg.772e596971fd0f78ea01476ab2a60eaa.jpg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
45 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Rumblings in the central belt of Scotland currently. When the sun peeps out the heat is incredible and the high humidity is making it so sticky. I have great hopes for later on.

Yes I was watching that earlier Fiona - showing nicely below.

 F6A20314-1D11-48A7-85C6-A2678833B41E.thumb.png.8fe6d8f12ff87e85ea4ff688a06d08a5.png0831A35A-9ECF-4097-B964-60C61C975505.thumb.png.759f342c823c7334cf8b9c0280e96c81.png

7BCA7F1B-2FA9-4176-9997-209D2A1794AF.thumb.png.b7257abe909d0157df49a8674ba9f2e9.png22E7B56D-C3E2-4FB3-B704-9A0468915F74.thumb.png.8f9e1a5c42c03c08c3759e9a21f3e09b.png

Was just up my local hill for a look about (98 meters) and the sun was making a very brief appearance but there is too much low cloud here near the West Coast for me to see anything after the earlier heavy rain. 

Currently 20c and very muggy - back out later once the fun begins. (If it does! )

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I'm taking myself up into the Peak District. Currently between Sheffield and the Snake Pass inn. I doubt anything will happen for a while but for now I will have a walk and enjoy the hazy sunshine and humidity. Hopefully will have something to chase in about 3-4 hours time.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 23.9°C, intermittent insolation. Nothing else happening. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Storms breaking out again over Scotland, what a great summer it has been here for storms  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

For me the place to be is far north and England and Southern Scotland.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
30 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I'm taking myself up into the Peak District. Currently between Sheffield and the Snake Pass inn. I doubt anything will happen for a while but for now I will have a walk and enjoy the hazy sunshine and humidity. Hopefully will have something to chase in about 3-4 hours time.

Yes just watching for developments in Wales that looks like a trough in front of the cold front in western Ireland.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Can’t hear anything from here. Wrong direction for me. Lots of insolation now though. 24.2°C. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Is it me or is it building westward. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Had some patchy sun this morning but been cloudy past few hours, can't see much action here today but looks like it's kicking off near Manchester

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

Cell between Liverpool and Manchester has just exploded, seems to be heading straight North 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...