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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Yesterday's midday EPS would not be a good solution for Dorian with any northward movement inhibited by a blocking ridge

12_es3.thumb.png.86f0ae658e691dbfffdd9573432a21e5.png

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Over the next couple of days another trough tracks east to phase with the old trough, all linked to the TPV in the Arctic, all of which results in a showery, windy and cool couple of days, particularly in the north

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7598400.thumb.png.608226d12aa2b1e3c7387fb14c0d5e30.pnggfs-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-7598400.thumb.png.1c3e272b8e604b48faf7461379dbedc6.png

132.thumb.png.d728f4d35756c565d0a7cc870c92b29f.png156.thumb.png.35a17bae97f4cfa03f48a2015ff14fd3.png

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The ecm his morning pretty much has the blocking ridge in control of the steering of Dorian

96.thumb.png.be59d1044d7be6f151d4bdf0a70f80bf.png

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The ecm not dissimilar to the gfs next Tues/Weds

132.thumb.png.e66e0ef4a0ad8e487f66fc21e3525ffc.png156.thumb.png.2e5d35735576745b14f0eaca6714ae58.png

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-7533600.thumb.png.c5536885d2c8653966c5371660363db7.pngecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-7620000.thumb.png.5f819e000afeedbfae4f92e979e336be.png

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I was too busy to post anything yesterday but I saved a few charts..I have high hopes for at least some summery weather in september!!!👍🌞😉

06_384_mslp500.thumb.png.5bbd65194fd6374d96809a4ae2e6abe5.png18_366_500mb.thumb.png.759683804ae1716325914c4cad1439f8.png18_366_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.be8a41119fb703f022d942e333db3ec0.png14_378_500mb.thumb.png.31fdeb102cc1536210a5bee365eec982.png

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Still opportunities for some late-summer summeriness...on today's GEFS 00Zs.:oldgood:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Things might even be cool enough to get rid of my pesky prickly heat, too?:yahoo:

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A massive NW/SE contrast in the next 10 days in terms of predicted rainfall...parts of NW Scotland could see 100-150mm of rain, whereas the SE could see 0mm. After the recent baking weather I suspect farmers will be crying out for some decent rainfall. They may be waiting a while yet.

Dorian will add uncertainty to the forecast as it tracks across Florida and beyond.

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After some interim amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high the EPS  mean anomaly then reverts to a flatter upper flow in the ext period. NOAA retains some of the amplification. This would tend to suggest a drier and more settled interlude for south west regions before reverting to more generally unsettled. Temps a tad below average.

4-9.thumb.png.d0c761d3c97ef72b6673f8d901e6682d.png9-14.thumb.png.dd46b2e9c749f9bba18aecaf74d13e69.png814day_03.thumb.gif.748ec25a3372bda81fd2608438046c45.gifindex.thumb.png.5e00fc05bd19b67972773662232b70f5.png

 

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Things looking decent away from the far NW next week, high pressure building in from the W/SW.. quite a warm up on the ECM also. 

UW144-21.gif

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-240 (1).png

ECM1-240 (1).gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Things looking decent away from the far NW next week, high pressure building in from the W/SW.. quite a warm up on the ECM also. 

UW144-21.gif

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-0-240 (1).png

ECM1-240 (1).gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

How far N/W - Hopefully Manchester isn't classed as far N/W?

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The Ecm 0z ensemble mean seems to be suggesting a north / south split beyond the  unsettled blip this weekend / early next week with plenty of ridging / high pressure influence across southern uk bringing predominantly fine and pleasantly warm conditions further south!.👍

EDM1-96.thumb.gif.dcc7368329d72635c0259dc85b78a9c9.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.816c168081cd8358f605d84c034e9b8e.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.8f7262d5b46ab8bca679335855210593.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.828600e0d8af2a2ae95aacff0f69358a.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.849058162ad0b1f4bdbd6de6544b8292.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.15e22d10374e4a8a2715619ca41b6855.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.97519e07a1ca88e769027ab8ded4ac2e.gif

Edited by JON SNOW

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Hi chrisbell-nottheweatherman, sorry I don't have permission to send sticky notes but I agree with you.....anyway, the models show even cooler weather for all by sunday into the start of next week so a big shock to the system for those of you in the S / SE who had 33c and are still enjoying mid 20's c for the next few days and becoming more unsettled for a time but most of the rain further n / nw and then a north / south split developing next week, if the Ecm 0z operational in particular is right, a return to fine, warm and summery weather for the south.

Edited by JON SNOW

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Just now, JON SNOW said:

Hi chrisbell-nottheweatherman, sorry I don't have permission to send sticky notes but I agree with you.....anyway, the models show even cooler weather for all by sunday into the start of next week so a big shock to the system for those of you in the S / SE who are still enjoying mid 20's c for the next few days and becoming more unsettled for a time but most of the rain further n / nw and then a north / south split developing next week, if the Ecm 0z operational in particular is right, a return to fine, warm and summery weather for the south.

Cheers.

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Today's 06Z GEFSs are looking rather average, or a tad below average, to me...could do with an injection of TSRs to liven things up a bit?🤔

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But then I'm biased; I hate autumn!😬

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The 'river of moisture laden air running along the slow moving front that is liable to dump a fair bit of rain in some NW areas in the next 36 houts

700wind_pw_63.thumb.png.743c35b19e8b7f08131ab798d463a734.pngPPVE89.thumb.gif.fc06862fea483a5e8d43f1038c075201.gif

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Well I think this from the longer term Gfs 12z operational would be wonderful, warm sunny days, light winds, cool clear nights..mists and mellow fruitfulness...anyone agree?👍🌞

12_264_mslp500.thumb.png.6b307b304c934fdedd6fb953061d1808.png12_288_mslp500.thumb.png.40b9e94067a174a69ac3ebe6b9b325f8.png12_312_mslp500.thumb.png.18a6dc97bcd222a9213b32f4064b410f.png12_336_mslp500.thumb.png.df4178a83cfbd1dbdb00115fa7066d80.png

12_360_mslp500.png

Edited by JON SNOW

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That is the exact forecast that I put out to my friends for that period last week. It does seem that there is a model trend in that direction and hopefully it will firm up over the next 48 hours - perfect!

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9 hours ago, Neil Harris said:

How far N/W - Hopefully Manchester isn't classed as far N/W?

Hi Neil, I usually refer to a NW/SE split has the Western parts of Scotland... N Ireland... Down into the NW of England and perhaps North Wales... With areas south of this fairing better. For me there are mixed signals in the next 10 day's... We have a build of pressure but this remains a tad to far West!! The GFS 12Z shows a trough to the NE bringing more unsettled conditions towards next weekend... But beyond that a better build of pressure, perhaps bringing more widely settled conditions towards mid month, and more especially beyond. So all in all, plenty of usable conditions moving forward. 

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21 (1).gif

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-252.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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Yes folks, the GEFS 12Z ensembles suggest something of a warmup, as we approach mid-month...Well, the op and control are headed in the same direction!:oldgood:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

It's nae too late for fantasising about possible plumes, just yet?🤓

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hi Neil, I usually refer to a NW/SE split has the Western parts of Scotland... N Ireland... Down into the NW of England and perhaps North Wales... With areas south of this fairing better. For me there are mixed signals in the next 10 day's... We have a build of pressure but this remains a tad to far West!! The GFS 12Z shows a trough to the NE bringing more unsettled conditions towards next weekend... But beyond that a better build of pressure, perhaps bringing more widely settled conditions towards mid month, and more especially beyond. So all in all, plenty of usable conditions moving forward. 

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21 (1).gif

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-0-204.png

gfs-0-252.png

Thanks Matt.

I'm a big cricket fan so model watching for Manchester from next Wednesday.

Thanks for the info.

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This evening's ecm for next week is a pretty good example of a fluid Atlantic with a fairly strong westerly upper flow with  phasing of the airmasses leading to changeable detail for the UK on a day-to-day basis. This is merely an example as this is still subject to change at that range

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-7792800.thumb.png.6f7a996ddb659296fa202c38abba51dd.pngecmwf-natl_wide-t850_anom_5day-7792800.thumb.png.818f8018c6071afcea07955baf85151e.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_f_anom_5day-7792800.thumb.png.1a4b31585515e6c91ce71c30c37c8cba.png120.thumb.png.a472c90b365fc290209a3c8949cf5ee9.png144.thumb.png.b7fd7dead3200857e48e5cbc669f2a6b.png168.thumb.png.cbc23f640feb63a74a8a2a4d1ad9b827.png192.thumb.png.21f04f9f42ca46c0a7802d4890c5debb.png

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52 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Yes folks, the GEFS 12Z ensembles suggest something of a warmup, as we approach mid-month...Well, the op and control are headed in the same direction!:oldgood:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

It's nae too late for fantasising about possible plumes, just yet?🤓

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Clear indication for dry conditions until the 4th/5th with more mixed weather thereafter.

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