Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

The ecm 5-10 mean anomaly in the same ball park as the gfs, perhaps more trough influence

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7468800.thumb.png.fcdb9a2ffc55ac7d11afb32a622246cd.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-7468800.thumb.png.e8c436a7fea0916155db689aaf6312d8.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes we now have all 3 of the models I use at 500 mb showing troughing over/close by the UK as the main upper air feature in the 6-10 day time frame.

This would appear to be the form horse even though today is the first time all 3 have shown a similar pattern.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking like we have more of a consensus for Monday now - upper low probably staying out to the SW, so another hot day in prospect especially towards the SE. Some places may see 4 days in a row of 30c+, not to be sniffed at. Breakdown likely from Wednesday onwards to more unsettled conditions as @johnholmes alludes to above.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean I would say on balance early September is not going to be too bad, there's a decent chance that high pressure / ridging will be influencing our weather, at least southern uk!!👍

21_234_500mb.thumb.png.7d7a50729ff5f99f15026a74cde1bf9e.png21_258_500mb.thumb.png.e90c81c028953a5285832eab42ed6c28.png21_282_500mb.thumb.png.fcb817f4bbb8afe3a16ffd0293b5ec9d.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean I would say on balance early September is not going to be too bad, there's a decent chance that high pressure / ridging will be influencing our weather, at least southern uk!!👍

21_234_500mb.thumb.png.7d7a50729ff5f99f15026a74cde1bf9e.png21_258_500mb.thumb.png.e90c81c028953a5285832eab42ed6c28.png21_282_500mb.thumb.png.fcb817f4bbb8afe3a16ffd0293b5ec9d.png

 

Looks reasonable....no early autumn disasters on the cards by the looks of things. Of course we always have the unknown of the hurricane season to throw in, we always seem to get a recurved hurricane or tropical system thrown into the mix to shake things up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading the Hurricane Thread it seems the NHC have revised there forecast to an above average season. It’s been a slow start so I wonder, if it is the case, how this may affect our Autumn?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much cooler air all round at T+258...But plenty of sunshine on offer.:oldgood:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Annnnddd...The GEFS 06Z Operational has once-again found its way to the bottom of the heap!:gathering:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And, based on its previous performances, when showing cold this summer, it has about as much chance of verification as England have of winning The Ashes!:shok:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Interesting to note how quite a strong onshore 950mb wind, 155/28kts, perhaps augmented by a sea breeze, impacts the temp profile in the boundary layer.

2019082412.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.6f59f8fce6611beafda75a3579be7fe7.gif950wind_d02_5.thumb.png.cdf7347b69a224fa4f08a02364aebf0a.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Again the GEFS (12Z) operational run becomes a cold outlier for part of its run...Will that spell of near-zero T850s really happen? Will a cold outlier ever verify?

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

If so, then I hope it'll no' be this side of December 21st!:oldgrin:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational, following the briefest of breakdowns the heat returns for an encore later next week!!👍🔥😮😁 

144_thickuk.thumb.png.3ff80644af83562db8aff50ea31eb25f.png144_mslp500.thumb.png.bc6b08c01b1b00eda3f6734de2079ba5.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.d7cb0e2b5ec2278a899afdfae49c6e01.png168_mslp850.thumb.png.4cffda9048ec111ce49f3b96401ecf4e.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.4d5a3fde322bec5098e561fc6a2109a8.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.b255a448ad33c129c479e44b23f15733.pngooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.thumb.jpg.35a2a5c4e8e8a62bf65576028a3ae9ee.jpg

 

Edited by JON SNOW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

ECM 12z is just a rinse and repeat of similar synoptics...

Now suggesting temperatures 32C or above from Sunday all the way till Wednesday. Perhaps the most sustained heatwave of the entire summer! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

. Perhaps the most sustained heatwave of the entire summer! 

Not really. That was most of July

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'Heatwave' is termed as 30c or above in southern England, - tomorrow, Monday and possibly Tuesday in south eastern parts could get up to that threshold and if believed 12z shows a similar occurrence next weekend!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

'Heatwave' is termed as 30c or above in southern England, - tomorrow, Monday and possibly Tuesday in south eastern parts could get up to that threshold and if believed 12z shows a similar occurrence next weekend!

Nope. 3 days above 28c in the London area is deemed a heatwave. 

Check MetO heat issue which is currently Level 3.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning campers,

For anyone not enjoying the current heat and looking forward to autumn, the Gfs 0z operational has a nice surprise for you  in low res!😮

00_372_mslp500.thumb.png.76d1a15c150a5fc2e05480a7d2d291a9.png00_372_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.6da53907154a8ada701aea81d6731af0.png00_384_ukthickness850.thumb.png.6025e502753c52800788fd9436622af6.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But Ol' Man Op is well on the cold side of the T850 ensemble, karl. Which seems to be pretty much par-for-the-course these days?😬

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But, not in the case of 2m temps...curiouser and curiouser!:cc_confused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Enjoy the heat while it lasts summer lovers - it could be the last heatwave for a good 9 months! A trend to cooler and more unsettled conditions through the latter half of next week, with perhaps a brief return of some warmth on Saturday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Enjoy the heat while it lasts summer lovers - it could be the last heatwave for a good 9 months! A trend to cooler and more unsettled conditions through the latter half of next week, with perhaps a brief return of some warmth on Saturday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

yep after about tuesday it not looking  nice  bit warmer at the emd  of the week for a while  as  for fantasy world dont go there!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

as  im on holiday for 2  weeks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Bore da pawb - good morning everyone from a cloudier & cooler southwest Wales after yesterday's warmth with 27C on the west coast ☀️ as forecasted by all weather models from around 5 days or so ago the fresher air has arrived already and will remain across western areas of the UK throughout the week ahead which will starting from tonight, bring cooler nights and any heat being confined to the east. The wettest weather around during the next 5 days will be in NW Scotland with heavy rain at times, W Ireland and another area running up through the Irish Sea, some showers possible in the east too. 

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Updated_Weather said:

Nope. 3 days above 28c in the London area is deemed a heatwave. 

Check MetO heat issue which is currently Level 3.

Yeah you're right...so here in the south east a 5 day heatwave back in July, doubt will surpass that now. I'm just looking forward to some depressions that will move into Europe and mix the conditions up on the continent (something we see little of over recent summers)/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest gfs shows Tuesday shaping up to become another nationwide hot day, maxes of 31/32C in London and 27/28 elsewhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEFS 12Z ensembles are very okay!:yahoo:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.pngimage.png.4fc4f66c0eea64cd20bc80e4fefc38aa.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...