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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Looking at the ECM ens, the operational is probably in the majority cluster again.

Not a good position to make a call on next week. The ECM has support so it could be handling the main trough better than the GEFs in particular which might be blowing it up and strengthening the jet stream too much. 

The fact that it’s not a big outlier is interesting. Let’s see if the GFS 6z goes down a similar route.

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well lets compare the current ecm with the previous gfs runs for next sunday, and see if the current ecm is an 'outlier'.. and as you can see, it isnt, it is in the same general ball park, plus the noaa chart supports something like these operational charts.
ecm
802492929_ECMsun.thumb.png.f1cd3aef5f39e72a74875cbcf24e6d6d.png

gfs


656771411_GFSsun1.thumb.png.53db75fef02ee8df27d794f725e7e9d5.png1624770434_GFSsun2.thumb.png.834c4ad37b672b1fa469072276de4fff.png1161818990_GFSsun3.thumb.png.ab0f3de65c5c930c177ff77362cc851c.png1881962931_GFSsun4.thumb.png.d13982d5bd35de5a2efbc02d3220c582.png


814day_03.thumb.gif.b677d2dce9f9a1e12856d0202f55e2ad.gif

 

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It’s not a massive outlier, but it’s right at the top end of the ensembles for 850s and 500mb heights. Rest of the pack probably more like the other models. We’re only 2 days away from the heat arriving and still none the wiser as to exactly when it breaks down!

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So, here are the GEFS 00Z ensembles, which are interesting, in that they seem to keep us in a holding-pattern not too far different from what we've seen (minus of course any remnants of last winter's TPV?) since early June, IMO -- the boundary between hot and cold is still oriented more-or-less as it's been for a while::oldgrin:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Is there any dramatic change expected, from a pattern of (albeit slowly) repeating plumes? Not that I can see; there is simply too much hot air over Europe for that to happen...and hot air can be as hard to shift as cold? Now watch it all break down, next week!:oldgrin:🤓

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Meanwhile, enjoy three or four days' swelteration therapy!🔥💦

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And, here are the ECMWF NH profiles at 24, 144 and 240:

npsh500.024.png npsh500.144.png

npsh500.240.png We could have done with those extensive Scandi heights, back in June?

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Posted (edited)

Looking at UKMO the start of next week looks increasingly hot and dry away from west

ukm2.2019072212_060_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f2c9669bdc3d35a156ea9ecb8a001172.pngukm2.2019072312_084_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1e2ec35c66ba61cc67b52b5865fc59c9.png

By mid-week we start to see showers breaking out with the heat around these are likely to be torrential and thundery where they do develop

ukm2.2019072412_108_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3f270c222ddb675123f940363e346f3f.pngukm2.2019072500_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.fb7574223d6778dcab9c7c33eed91cce.png

Towards the end of the week we continue to see some rain/showers but with fresher air from the west

ukm2.2019072600_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ca7d088b732d66c3f0855043e4a57203.pngukm2.2019072700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.edaac96c40922d1392b5e0abc82d0b2f.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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Fantastic ecm this morning!!continues where it left off last night!!gfs also better than last nights 18z with the 20 degree  850 hpa temps much further west at around 120 hours !!ukmo is good until 144 hours where it just blows a low right over us!!

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic ecm this morning!!continues where it left off last night!!gfs also better than last nights 18z with the 20 degree  850 hpa temps much further west at around 120 hours !!ukmo is good until 144 hours where it just blows a low right over us!!

Lots of GEFS 0z members have us in cooler / fresher atlantic air by thursday which is a significant downgrade compared to recent days. 

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I looked at most of the ECM individual ensembles and the op was ever so slightly cooler than most for Wednesday, and slightly warmer than most for Thursday. But, on the whole, the op was reasonably representative of the ensemble set - it was the few outliers pushing the heat away quickly that dragged the mean down. Not many members keep the heat going into Friday. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Lots of GEFS 0z members have us in cooler / fresher atlantic air by thursday which is a significant downgrade compared to recent days. 

Yeh looks an outlier from  as soon as day 4!!!hopefully the op is leading the way!!

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1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Lots of GEFS 0z members have us in cooler / fresher atlantic air by thursday which is a significant downgrade compared to recent days. 

I would be more worried if the ECM op agreed with them. If the GFS 6z continues the theme of the ops, I’d expect the ensembles to flip back. I know I’ve already said this, but the op is more likely to be correct at T96, even with ensemble disagreement.

So much for it all being resolved by this morning!

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Just now, shaky said:

Yeh looks an outlier from  as soon as day 4!!!hopefully the op is leading the way!!

I want it to last as long as possible..as you do 👍

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Mighty ICON next up! 😂

Am I right to be backing op over ensembles at 96? Just wondering what the more knowledgeable posters think?

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Mighty ICON next up! 😂

Am I right to be backing op over ensembles at 96? Just wondering what the more knowledgeable posters think?

Yup the op normally leads the way at such a time frame!!hopefully 06z continues that!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Yup the op normally leads the way at such a time frame!!hopefully 06z continues that!!

I suppose that the ensembles don’t pick up small nuances, which in this setup have a large bearing on the eventual outcome.

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17 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Lots of GEFS 0z members have us in cooler / fresher atlantic air by thursday which is a significant downgrade compared to recent days. 

Yes I made a post last night saying up to Wednesday was nailed on, Thursday pretty much was and Friday probably breakdown, that appears to have been pulled back at least 24hrs. Hopefully the 06z ensembles follow the 00z Ops run but if not heat possibly only IOW to the Wash eastwards on Wednesday.

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Posted (edited)

The secondary low is probably still an (all options on the table) situation

ICON 06z/00z

icon-0-72.png?20-06   icon-0-78.png?20-00

The problem is it could start deepening quickly at day 3, or even at this range it might simply die a death and never engage the parent low. It has a big impact on how the low behaves all the way to day 10, given it wants to remain in a similar place close to Iceland throughout. The stronger low will produce a stronger jet stream and flatter pattern. This is why the ECM is able to build the Azores high back in after the heat clears eastwards.

apologies for the two charts, they should for the same time from the last two runs. Standard charting fail there...

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Indeed Cap...What will the secondary low do? GFS at T+93:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

More runs needed?:oldgrin:

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Looks like a wee bit of an 'upgrade'? If only we could make Eric Pickles sit on that LP, for a while, we could have the heat for weeks!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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I'm not going to hang much on the GFS in the next 24 hours - it's so bad at judging the depth of developing Atlantic lows on the jet stream at around D4. I don't think the update to FV3 has fixed that. Hopefully the UKMO/ECM will be on the same page tonight. 

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like a wee bit of an 'upgrade'? If only we could make Eric Pickles sit on that LP, for a while, we could have the heat for weeks!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

If he did that then we’d have a totally flat pattern because he’d flatten the high pressure too! 😂😂

6z does look slightly better than 0z.

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So that low on the FV3 06z swung a little further south on Mon only to deepen so much that it ended up a tad north of where the 00z has it for Wed.

Hmm. Not sure about that!

Anyway - the low game closer to the critical threshold south of which development is minimal and the low is more liable to cut-off west of Europe akin to yesterday’s FV3 06z.

That’s what keeps me on my toes with this situation. What if the actual behaviour is outside the current ensemble spread? It’s possible in such a sensitive environment; the perturbations to ensemble run starting data are only very slight.

To the north of that spread you get an extremely rapid freshening from the west - probs by early Wed. To the south, probably a 5+ day intense heatwave.

Not ruling out either of those outcomes yet. Maybe by tomorrow morning if they’re not at all represented in the modelling.

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Looks like another short spell hot blast coming, nice start to the school hols.  A good soaking down here last night into this morning to prep the garden for it

 

BFTP

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Not alot changing on the extended ecm ens out to day 14...the mean a tad under 8c, a fair few runs above this, the pressure shows around 1016mb,and again a fair few runs above this... Probably a 50/50 split. Certainly no signs of a guaranteed unsettled spells.... Looking at the ECM precipitation charts out to the end of the week show the bulk of rain and shower activity mostly to the NW. 

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019072000_114_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019072000_120_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019072000_126_18_155.png

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I feel the Gfs 6z operational is under cooking the maxima again next week by a good few degrees, apart from thursday in the east...having said that, whether it's high 20's or low 30's c it's going to feel hot and very humid so nitpicking over a few degrees is a bit of a waste of time..next week becomes very plumey with plenty of thundery potential until things freshen up from the west during friday which may not happen as shown!!..so, Monday we get a surge of tropical maritime air and then more of a long draw hot southerly sourced from spain / north africa!👍

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