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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Depends what model is right...

image.thumb.png.b3e0941c9734a66d284f67e126eb057f.pngimage.png.3e4dfe04ddf1b545b596080962e146ef.png

If the ECM op is right then expect cloud/showers and tops of 23-24c....thankfully it sits at the bottom end of the ensemble pack.

N.b - that chart you posted is from last night. This mornings chart is far messier:

image.thumb.png.1fc0437526510564201267715cdbabab.png

fair comment, but theres still not much rain around on monday away from the far west/northwest. id have though it will be largely dry. however, we will see.

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^ I don't get how something like this can be missed by the major forecasters so close to the event. Hopefully it will flip back again- signs of this possibly happening from the GFS 06Z run.

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the extended GEFS 6z mean / perturbations, it may be not a bad early september..at least not as bad as England's batting anyway!!!👍🤪😁

21_348_500mb.thumb.png.3abf7f1acf504dc62c5e7f01d20072c5.png21_366_500mb.thumb.png.c889db7d57f16e63e7e47f76d0359e63.png1_372_850tmp.thumb.png.699fe4303ae01a5830f8e747edcb7551.png1_372_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.87e87fe955239a456a5724e0149b60d3.png2_372_500mb.thumb.png.dd9a31f06d86e85d0a631ba5265284c3.png17_372_500mb.thumb.png.cb83786583a05c8b8c289a1a250f59bd.png18_372_500mb.thumb.png.30f100f6aae7e919fea1d1d253668318.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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Another sensational roundup from Tamara. We really are spoiled on here! 😜

 

For what it's worth, the ICON 12z has been kind to us:

icon-1-54.png?23-12 icon-1-72.png?23-12 icon-1-99.png?23-12

No real trouble with the upper low at the weekend, and an impressive pool of warmth built up across the S half of the UK by Tue.

Hopefully the other models will follow suit for Sat-Mon and we can rest easier on that cut-off low (not totally easy though - it really is that fiddly!).

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I'll take this, for the middle of next week!:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Temps v warm/hot for the majority bar the far N/W tomorrow.

1617749692_viewimage(35).thumb.png.513404736ac8acd00282ce7302ad5d91.png

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14 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Temps v warm/hot for the majority bar the far N/W tomorrow.

1617749692_viewimage(35).thumb.png.513404736ac8acd00282ce7302ad5d91.png

Have the temperatures improved for sunday and monday too?!!seems to have been an upgrade on temps on icon 12z and gfs 12z!!

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, shaky said:

Have the temperatures improved for sunday and monday too?!!seems to have been an upgrade on temps on icon 12z and gfs 12z!!

Not quite within reach of Sunday on the latest UKV run Shaky.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Arpege maxima based on the 12z.

Saturday - 30c

Sunday - 33c

Monday - 34c

Model consensus for now is keeping that shallow low out of harms way. But await the ECM just in case it throws a cooler solution.

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Interesting to look at the uncertainty on afternoon temperatures on Monday on the 6z ARPEGE ensembles, here for T81, 4pm UK time for 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of the probability distribution:

image.thumb.jpg.6b89bdbfaa20b55f06f628090404cbf9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7a4e7500e8519c00604240809860bab0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.65338a59aeb0896a35392b614e047336.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.e968753796bec676ab90cb7008e62c87.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.292c57491ef28fd527719d53e8dbcb56.jpg

If the bookies are still offering 2/1 on the bank holiday record going, it might be worth a punt!

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

If the bookies are still offering 2/1 on the bank holiday record going, it might be worth a punt!

Which one was offering that?

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3 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Which one was offering that?

Not sure, someone mentioned on here a couple of days ago that odds had been cut from 3/1 to 2/1, I can't remember who it was.  May not be true this close anyway.

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Massive upgrade on ecm at 48 and 72 hours!!that little cold pool has cut off and is heading south towards portugal instead of east across england!!that a huuge change at 2 to 3 days out!!much hotter across england on monday aswell!!33 degrees may not be that far fetched now😈🔥🌡

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We could, if the 12Zs are right, see six consecutive days' below 20C...?😬

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

That being said, I suspect more than a few folks will welcome some cooler, fresher-feeling nights?:oldgood:

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26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Not sure, someone mentioned on here a couple of days ago that odds had been cut from 3/1 to 2/1, I can't remember who it was.  May not be true this close anyway.

If anyone knows who is offering those odds I would be interested in that for sure, looking at the latest ECM run it's definitely on!

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39 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could, if the 12Zs are right, see six consecutive days' below 20C...?😬

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

That being said, I suspect more than a few folks will welcome some cooler, fresher-feeling nights?:oldgood:

Nope, months ahead for cooler, fresher nights, they can do one for the time being 😂

seriously though, much better from ecm over the weekend. 

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Chris Fawkes showing the uncertainty quite nicely on the bbc homepage tonight - special little segment on the cut off low. Also mentions the 27c vs 33c scenario as we are seeing with the models depending on where the low ends up. Some decent looking runs about tonight with some scorching heat if that floats your boat - but even at 48 hours we’re still not sure. It’s like midwinter!

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Chris Fawkes showing the uncertainty quite nicely on the bbc homepage tonight - special little segment on the cut off low. Also mentions the 27c vs 33c scenario as we are seeing with the models depending on where the low ends up. Some decent looking runs about tonight with some scorching heat if that floats your boat - but even at 48 hours we’re still not sure. It’s like midwinter!

If its 27c V 33c, its nothing like mid winter i would have thought! :oldlaugh:

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If its 27c V 33c, its nothing like mid winter i would have thought! :oldlaugh:

Aye, no would be 7c v 11c or so, debate whether the rain will be slightly cooler

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Gfs 18z continues to upgrade the heat for monday!!pushes the cold pool further south and west!!

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Posted (edited)

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 sat image

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6604800.thumb.png.90db38fb39482bdd4b4e76eb0088ee40.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.366f4110bade0503f07be56c5410eae8.gifmeteosat-msg_ir108_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.f00146738dac7847964d7347c88031cf.jpg

Quite cloudy in some western regions this morning with some patchy rain over N. Ireland and western Scotland and the proximity of the waving front will ensue this is the case through the day and a trough may also bring cloud and the odd spot or two to the south west late on. But generally sunny and getting warm in most regions

PPVE89.thumb.gif.4bdecdbed87512d81e062ce6838455fd.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.2c6efcc2ebb6bf5df0a2bf4c76f9973d.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.66d262127517e2ccefded868653c8645.png

Overnight a similar story in the west whilst clear with the odd mist patch elsewhere

PPVG89.thumb.gif.51fc95a4d0cd2fde80df69970c29e4af.gif

Sunday could well be the hottest day of the holiday but the movement of the waving cold front to the west will bring more cloud here late on with perhaps the odd light shower in the south west. It is the movement of this front and developments on it that remains a bit tricky as it marks the boundary between the hot air and the pleasantly warm

PPVI89.thumb.gif.869b15062407fa748be2a0b926e52e99.gifvortpanel_d02_48.thumb.png.108ef3ed7ec8b118529bdba37977acb2.png2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.888b41ca74f70c3bf3b1d5a933376f48.png

Thus another hot day in the east on Monday but more cloud in western regions and frontal systems associated with the low over Iceland will track a band of more persistent rain into the north west by the evening

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6842400.thumb.png.5cbfc2aa0553eb79d012d13bd9534532.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.04eacdd8ae118bae411bd64fd740c877.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.ec706a8cf5046365ea4cb8bf6b05e054.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6842400.thumb.png.f64a1a07dcddb7fa93702bed95600e21.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6842400.thumb.png.e91bbb85e7e50ebdd8ab5f6dd3f107ad.png

The movement of the front and the upper feature that tracks north east over Monday night and Tuesday morning continues to concentrate minds with some showery precipitation also tracking NE whilst the frontal band continues to effect the north west

gfs-eur-vort500_z500-6896400.thumb.png.1a3492dbcd5ffe5f88eac91ef54b7708.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.ec0b9869a2b00fa3b11e7230f18f3b67.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6896400.thumb.png.4cbbf3d49af6bfce51069d62ffd3185d.pnggfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6939600.thumb.png.1a3427ac6897662dd18cef142d5032b2.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6928800.thumb.png.773dc5ce2c0b6ad0043cc795039599fe.png

By Wednesday the front has struggled across the country as the upper trough to the west becomes negatively tilted

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6993600.thumb.png.1485e091cb99fe755f36c0d7a92756d5.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.817ff0260017caaf2d7978e29bef7f8e.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7015200.thumb.png.2c7371e0f383d0577def12fd00755295.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-7015200.thumb.png.90adcf7079677b1e4364400b0dd52007.png

As mentioned above the movement of the front and salient features is critical so I doubt this is the final word on the subject

Edited by knocker

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The main feature of the following five days is the continuing amplification of the subtropical zones which effectively 'traps; the upper trough just to the north of the UK. Ergo unsettled but tending to a N/S split with temps back down to average or a tad below. This is according to the gfs

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7468800.thumb.png.49cced8f6f8bea62f05017a03205b743.pnggfs-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-7468800.thumb.png.c4ebb25d7411bcfc3764025e32e7988a.png

 

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UKV take on temps over next few days..

1125271614_viewimage(37).thumb.png.432042cd106e8e63288156743dfacd1f.png38686617_viewimage(38).thumb.png.0a5879dcb61ecb9e042cbb5ed849f486.png339669984_viewimage(39).thumb.png.292da2f87b74bdf4d8df740b3119c049.png1065455128_viewimage(40).thumb.png.c72dda7691b86bd6a9ef5ce53b1f1cb2.png1642875875_viewimage(41).thumb.png.aae0f3ce25087f31a306148ea5a4a22f.png

 

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Once we lose the heat, the GEFS 00Z ensembles suggest nothing out of the ordinary, through the remainder of the run...🤔

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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