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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)

According to the gfs the key features over the next four day are the amplification of the subtropical high in the western Atlantic and the development of the Atlantic trough. No point it getting too tied up with detail at this range but continuing the regional variation for a while with perhaps some thundery activity sneaking into the south on Wednesday

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7015200.thumb.png.1a346d60095fd8b71a29a92425a73405.png162.thumb.png.6844ed27c85c97a5fa3402bafdd8c0af.png

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7188000.thumb.png.b98e15d221a8fd7ced29ba9ab3d80c4d.png210.thumb.png.cbd0af88cdd1ad247c39bceebaa1d621.png

The GEFS 3-8 NH anomaly

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7123200.thumb.png.54894969f567c162a6029e2c8beb7115.png

 

Edited by knocker

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On this morning's ECM, the cut-off trough gets a bit more fruity and tempers the temperatures in the south from Sunday onwards compared with previous runs, but still threatening 30C until midweek. I fancy the 33C quoted by the Met Office would be a very long shot on this particular run, though. 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

On this morning's ECM, the cut-off trough gets a bit more fruity and tempers the temperatures in the south from Sunday onwards compared with previous runs, but still threatening 30C until midweek. I fancy the 33C quoted by the Met Office would be a very long shot on this particular run, though. 

Yes slightly disappointing this morning, especially for us away from the SE.

It had looked like we might see high 20s here into Tuesday and Wednesday here too but that is looking less likely this morning.

Sunday is looking like a cracking day around these parts but it may not now be that hot after that.

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Meanwhile, the UKMO really winds up the heat by the middle of next week. That's pretty spectacular for so late in August. 

UW144-7.GIF?22-07

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The ecm showing the slow breakdown next week albeit remaining warm in the south east for a while

132.thumb.png.db65e43352666205e2fdb30fcc3605e4.png162.thumb.png.56d7db8133b6a1439a3451b231433342.png186.thumb.png.71b630a7864dc9af7ea039ef26eb0297.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6928800.thumb.png.142f90d8aeb1ca6b03cbbf2ea5894dd0.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7015200.thumb.png.66a44b896e9e3a7eeed8c788a91bbd0d.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7101600.thumb.png.91eb152b9f30ae17c86450e58b2f052e.png

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30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Meanwhile, the UKMO really winds up the heat by the middle of next week. That's pretty spectacular for so late in August. 

UW144-7.GIF?22-07

UKMO is an absolute bake by the middle of next week - probably a warm outlier looking at it in comparison, as there aren't any GFS ensemble members at all that bring 18c 850s into play. We will see what the ECM has to say a when the data is available, but that chart would be a 34/35c day in the SE, especially after 4/5 hot days preceding.

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Posted (edited)

There's some hot models in here  this morning as we import continental air into the uk, couldn't ask for a better late summer bank holiday weekend, the timing of this very warm / hot spell is perfection!!..  The Ecm 0z operational shows a much happier ending than last nights 12z!!...enjoy it, summer is back with a vengeance!!👍🌞....Cheers gang,..:drinks:

48_thickuk.thumb.png.47114942b3d987cedbdf4cf0652b179a.png48_mslp850.thumb.png.a044e4e9d4bf1cc089006eb7a3d8ddda.png72_thickuk.thumb.png.d40f89dc183e48e4a74c309f951cd737.png72_mslp850.thumb.png.5ea89b0bf88225a880b98c7e79756958.png96_thickuk.thumb.png.9281c9ca60227e001579c13d68adb1c3.png96_mslp850.thumb.png.f50a3c073b79ad2deffed9f288258e01.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.1df9f5512cd19ecf8b7dab2aa6260025.png120_mslp850.thumb.png.17e39858bbc710a3411a92c57cee81b4.png120_thick.thumb.png.d65071046139d29cf6d858430ac3e76c.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.b6196d98bcd51c5145e01fc4d082a4e0.png1903982309_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.e40eba3bd52bea3fc073b25e7a3b3f26.pngUW120-21.thumb.gif.8efa00f411c32f3ac8ee98f11229c182.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.ddb1ea26af5ef37c1ad24ea32e6f2572.gifperfick.thumb.jpg.1a7c680ca88c396eba9cad7d1c99dcb0.jpg

 

Edited by JON SNOW

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Not a bad ending to this morning's GFS 00Z, with nowt too sinister lurking in the woodshed...?:oldgood:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And even the ensembles have watered down the steepness of next week's cooldown, from a 'Porlock' to a 'Muswell Hill'.😬

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

So a pretty good 16 days' weather, going forward?:yahoo:

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Posted (edited)

There is a little scope for the UKMO OP run this morning to be correct - though not much. The mean is more around 13/14c rather than the 18c on the UKMO run at the same time. The ECM OP a good snapshot of the ensemble as a whole. Breakdown to somewhat cooler conditions around the middle of the week, though timing very uncertain.

image.thumb.png.f50dfcc63197a7439423338c11a48f06.png

Edited by mb018538

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Looking at UKMO this morning Sunday could be the peak of the heat still very warm to hot on Monday but temps possibly 1 or 2c lower 

UKMO gives the following maxes

Friday 25c
Saturday 27c
Sunday 28c
Monday 27c

fri.thumb.png.5edaedd785e61d17e22320cb36890dae.pngsat.thumb.png.2e75430b4acf8cb7060af21bd529d1a0.png

sun.thumb.png.47ff4b585839d43b59d9394f8ede885f.pngmon.thumb.png.41ef5027cf8e6c1ec0d422654a3a02e2.png

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

On this morning's ECM, the cut-off trough gets a bit more fruity and tempers the temperatures in the south from Sunday onwards compared with previous runs, but still threatening 30C until midweek. I fancy the 33C quoted by the Met Office would be a very long shot on this particular run, though. 

Maybe we should give the icon more credit then cos it was the first of the runs this mornings that left the troughiness across the uk early next week!!ecm then joined in next!!icon 06z is identical to its 00z run!!

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So ECM's tried out what UKMO did yesterday evening, while UKMO has swung very much to the other end of the spectrum.

On the scale of 850s from hottest to coldest solutions for +96, I see GEM / ARPEGE / UKMO / FV3 / ECM / ICON.

No resting easy on this one, despite the fact that only the last two of those models make such a mess of the low cut-off process.

 

Longer-term, nice to see ECM explore the possibility that the Nino-style forcing from the subtropical Pacific manages to reset the N. Atlantic pattern back to a trough fully west of the UK & Europe D9-10, negating the transition to a Nina-like spell that FV3 continues to insist upon (but with reduced longevity noted on the 00z. The rising AAM + GWO into P5-6 playing in perhaps).

 

By the way @Summer Sun, those aren't the true maximums for the UKMO 00z, just the temps at 6 pm which at this time of year will be a fair few down from the peak values. Not sure if the model has a max temp (6h) variable available on that site (or anywhere)? I know ECM does.

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Just as an aside - I've found the MetO predicted temperatures for upcoming heatwaves to be especially poor this summer. When we had the record breaking uppers/north sea undercut back in June they were hopelessly off the mark, and I've often found them to be 1-3c above the BBC predicted temperatures, which have tended to be far more accurate.

They have gone for 32c Sunday and 33c Monday, whereas the beeb have gone for 30c/28c for the same days, which perhaps looks more likely.

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Looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts and they, over the past 2-3 days, do not show real consistency with one another or themselves from one day to the next. Thus trying to get a solid idea of what the 500 mb flow will be in the 6-10 day period is, to me, far from settled, making the surface predictions even more uncertain.

Thursday 22nd

Ec and gfs now both show troughing as the main feature but that differs. Ec has rounded trough, gfs, previously flattish w’ly with some ridging into uk, now shows deep trough centred sw of Iceland!

Noaa last evening (6-10) had troughing about 15-20w, previously had flattish w’ly , so no continuity really in the models just yet!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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GFS 06Z looks nae bad...for us. But the transport of heat into the Arctic Circle is a tad concerning, IMO?😬

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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46 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Looking at the 500 mb anomaly charts and they, over the past 2-3 days, do not show real consistency with one another or themselves from one day to the next. Thus trying to get a solid idea of what the 500 mb flow will be in the 6-10 day period is, to me, far from settled, making the surface predictions even more uncertain.

Thursday 22nd

Ec and gfs now both show troughing as the main feature but that differs. Ec has rounded trough, gfs, previously flattish w’ly with some ridging into uk, now shows deep trough centred sw of Iceland!

Noaa last evening (6-10) had troughing about 15-20w, previously had flattish w’ly , so no continuity really in the models just yet!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

bib .... i put that change down to adjustment as they re-evaluate as new data is recieved and the prediction alters likewise. they seem to do that quite often, jump from one path to another.

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Not such a bad GEFS 06Z ensemble set -- lowest T850 of around +3C.

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

A fair amount of sunshine and very little rain...Nae bad, for early September?:oldgood:

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Big upgrade on icon 12z up to 150 hours!heat and humidity building!!fantastic run so far!!messy evolution for monday and tuesday gone on this run!!

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Just as an aside - I've found the MetO predicted temperatures for upcoming heatwaves to be especially poor this summer. When we had the record breaking uppers/north sea undercut back in June they were hopelessly off the mark, and I've often found them to be 1-3c above the BBC predicted temperatures, which have tended to be far more accurate.

They have gone for 32c Sunday and 33c Monday, whereas the beeb have gone for 30c/28c for the same days, which perhaps looks more likely.

On the other hand, for the late July heatwave the Met Office were far closer to the mark here - they went for 35C while the BBC only went for 32C. The maximum temperature was 35C on the dot.

Though as a general rule both the Met Office and BBC tend to underestimate maximum temperatures while hopelessly overestimating minimum temperatures.

Edited by cheese

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20 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Apologise for the limited postings from me this summer, partly I think a reflection of how unflattered I have been with the output.. with never any clear signal of locked in sustained settled nationwide warm conditions, yes the period late June and mid-late July was good, but both periods collapsed into not very good. Alas here we are again, it seems another pulse of heat from the south, just in time for Bank Holiday, indeed hallmarks with what happened over easter holiday, same timing. I've also noticed how the warm injections have each occurred at similiar timeframes this summer, roughly 4 weeks apart.. 

The models suggest the drier warm theme may hold through the rest of August more so in the SE, with the NW more at threat from the atlantic but nothing too wet or significantly unsettled. Longer term good chance we will see the inevitable dry settled theme for early september which has become very common over many recent years. Indeed on average it has been the most quiet time of year weatherwise - I tend to switch off completely from model watching come September - a month of benigness and dullness. That song title 'wake me up when september ends' coming the fore again..

Roll on October please!

Don't bin the whole month just because a few Septembers manage to achieve quieter spells here and there. It won't take long for autumnal conditions to take hold if that's your preference, some years earlier than others. Equally, it can be one of the best months for convective weather, whether in the form of 2017 Pm thunderstorms, 2016/14 plumes or 2011 rPm storms.

archives-2017-9-11-0-0.png archives-2015-9-14-12-0.png archives-2013-9-15-12-0.png archives-2012-9-11-12-0.png archives-2011-9-6-12-0.png archives-2010-9-7-0-0.png

Having said that, we are indeed overdue a settled September. Haven't had one since 2014 and before that 2009, so perhaps 2019 will continue the pattern of every five years a good September.

In the short term, it looks like a cracking Bank Holiday weekend for those who enjoy warmth/heat and sunshine, or have outdoor plans (most people I would imagine), lasting until midweek before a change to something cooler. It doesn't look overly wet though, particularly in the south. GFS is flatter and likes the idea of higher pressure across the south, whereas ECM brings low pressure close to the southwest by September 1st.

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Interesting trend from the 12z FV3 & ICON op runs - developing a slightly more distinct cut-off low to our south which then stays there longer, drawing in more heat.

The 00z UKMO was of that nature, but the 12z from that model has shifted the other way again 🙄 - albeit not as far in that direction as the 12z UKMO of yesterday or the 00z ECM of today, so at least there’s been overall positive progress 😜.

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GEFS 12Zs are a wee bit less abrupt with the decline in 850s...:oldgood:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And there's nowt nasty in store.

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ECM firing up the heat even more into Tuesday - much like the ukmo 00z run. I suspect we’re still no nearer to a final answer to this even at 3/4 days out. Complicated set up. What we do know is that Sunday and Monday will both nudge 30c....after this who knows.

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Fantastic 12zs in regards to heat!!ukmo slightly further east but still hot!!actually icon and gfs and ukmo are upgrades on earlier runs🌡🔥☀️

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Posted (edited)

According to the ecm an interesting little perturbation in the flow on Sunday brings some patchy rain to Scotland

72.thumb.png.cf38ff8b7c5b105cee48477587c31267.png1145541214_mon12.thumb.png.3d5be8f128ba81147a06ed97b64be677.png

And then a slow NW breakdown but still hot in the south east

144.thumb.png.5c65ba787e01e91a5ede9b5602732110.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6928800.thumb.png.a57b1e8040ef5523a9626b0252d9baca.pngecmwf-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6993600.thumb.png.7e9f0454f93ca07c8f2404ffdbf949b7.png

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-7015200.thumb.png.0a94d154ec70b8976e45b65b0c3f9b2e.png

 

Edited by knocker

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