Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Downpour said:

GFS has been a shockingly poor performer of late, no doubt about it. 

 

 

And  so the poor performance continues on the gfs 06z!!pretty big backtrack towards ecm again!!am sorry but this really is embarrassing for the newly updated model!!if it cant get things right at just 96 hours  then i fear for the cold and snow lovers come winter time and that's including my self!!a lot of nervous breakdowns to be had come november time onwards😂😣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding all the quotes for the FV3 this morning!! Should we really be alarmed!! This model as performed atrocious since its release.... Remember all the imaginary cold pools in winter that never came off!! It looks to me this model should have been held back a little longer still. Looking at the the 6z....it is indeed a step towards the ECM again... Bank Holiday looking very promising and also very warm!!! America you make fantastic car engines.... Not so so sure about your weather models though!! 😉

gfs-0-126.png

gfs-1-126.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, shaky said:

And  so the poor performance continues on the gfs 06z!!pretty big backtrack towards ecm again!!am sorry but this really is embarrassing for the newly updated model!!if it cant get things right at just 96 hours  then i fear for the cold and snow lovers come winter time and that's including my self!!a lot of nervous breakdowns to be had come november time onwards😂😣

It's been way off at a similar range several times this summer. It's becoming a cannon fodder model, at least where UK forecasting is concerned. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Maybe just me, But lately I've found the 6z more consistent with the other big two models. Bearing in mind it was the first to pick up signals for the upcoming warm/hot spell..

Edited by Polar Maritime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Lovely stuff from the Gfs 6z operational out to and including next midweek...summer returns..dream charts which has support from other models!!!👍🌞

06_60_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.2efb0a3c840f5d79431837b27fc2bef0.png06_84_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.eb05e83718ae4058184ecb7a14aaf0cd.png06_84_mslp850.thumb.png.287344bc27666ee6d81a477ad4d9dba6.png06_108_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.09d95d6f8ab707481fb056be5157a2b3.png06_108_ukthickness850.thumb.png.3c4e001acd2d8336249df6996a09c1ae.png06_132_ukthickness850.thumb.png.8905b2e8a40e6d0a939568aab0f25126.png06_132_mslp850.thumb.png.eec057d880af90c62c8ab9405a1ccb8b.png06_132_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.4d857a634d579f461b787b589dc8186e.png06_156_mslp850.thumb.png.12578785415abcc00de686a4367c9d6b.png06_156_ukthickness850.thumb.png.a9290dc7587b559c2154e8e228cc18f3.png06_156_mslp850.thumb.png.255c107e409f51d68838d7495d3bd2b0.png06_180_mslp850.thumb.png.cd265c8f90abbbaef84fd23579922f52.png06_180_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.4e571cc1a4e8870be015ba12afc7aef6.png06_180_ukthickness850.thumb.png.efb5a600e9b76638041d52d98035702c.pngcashback.thumb.jpg.58c05ca3700547e7dab86489e98b2256.jpg

 

Edited by JON SNOW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe our 'funny' summer is going to continue? I mean, when are we going to see (outside of heavy rain) a properly cool day? We've had 26C under cyclonic SW'erlies and very few days when temps haven't either reached or exceeded 20C...Warm SSTs?

h850t850eu.png

Even on the above chart (T+294) cool uppers are being readily mixed out...so it wouldn't be long before 20+C-days resume, once again?:oldgrin:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Maybe our 'funny' summer is going to continue? I mean, when are we going to see (outside of heavy rain) a properly cool day? We've had 26C under cyclonic SW'erlies and very few days when temps haven't either reached or exceeded 20C...Warm SSTs?

h850t850eu.png

Even on the above chart (T+294) cool uppers are being readily mixed out...so it wouldn't be long before 20+C-days resume, once again?:oldgrin:

I agree, I am running 1.6 degrees above average fir my location and it has felt wet and miserable. Actually, looking at the charts as we run up to the month end we will end warm and wet, true of this summer generally

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If the GFS 06Z T+384 chart is another example of the newfound cold bias, the coming winter could be one of countless letdowns...Even more than is usual!:help:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

And, judging from the ensembles, we're going over the cliff-edge...two months' early!:shok:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

I do hope the GFS has simply lost touch with reality...:oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Currently

PPVA89.thumb.gif.eb7708de72138e65a391736568ba060d.gifmeteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.88f0caec9e1d8a364d2d634cc7a62342.jpg

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cfsv2_aam_fcst_current.png GWO_members_current.png

A glance at the AAM / GWO projections from CFSv2 gives the impresion that the atmosphere will be against strong westerly patterns affecting the UK in the 1st half of September. 

A trend over time very  in-keeping with an El Nino event. Looks to be partially driven by a vast swathe of +ve subtropical SST anomalies in the East Pacific.

I can see why the Met Office aren't writing of much of either a breakdown for southern UK late in the month, or a deterioration of conditions in the 1st week of Sep. Albeit with low confidence, which is fair enough considering the unsusual nature of the Pacific forcing at hand.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Icon 12z as you were up to 144 hours with high pressure heat and sun across the uk!!no where near the gfs!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs again an improvement on the 00z especially between 72 and 120 hours!!ukmo 12z now decides to downgrade slightly but still hot and sunny for much of the bank holiday!!its pushed eastward slightly!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I think it's been charts like these that have led to so many doom-and-gloom forecasts, this last spring and summer...But, despite their being rather frequent, they've never really produced any particularly cool weather...So I wonder what, if anything, these'll do...😬

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a quick look at the T850s for Monday T120, here for GEM, GFS, GFS legacy, UKMO and ICON:

image.thumb.jpg.e837e39b98056815de1bafb4fb39cf86.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a5c7bd3ef0a0848e35e588f27c8d9693.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.086aecb851c708b96835b6ccacb84dc8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d817d77908c68f15bf7f39ed1bdc3da3.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.79c365452ad38a0064bd22d8905b08d3.jpg

Spot the odd one out. UKMO seeming to introduce a nasty feature that messes everything up. Hope it is a rogue run and not on to something!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gfs this evening in the same ball park that has been indicated by the anomalies with the Atlantic trough and the ridge further east towards eastern Europe

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7252800.thumb.png.6ffbee232c625abb3c8cafbf248d31f0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEM would most certainly bring in nationwide spell of heat if it came off. Been a long time since Manchester touched 32C in August....

GEMOPEU12_144_5.png

GEMOPEU12_144_2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm, the suddenly more persistent, not cutting-off disturbance of the UKMO 12z has surprised me; I had thought the FV3 00z would be the last we’d see of that type of outcome.

Perhaps I should have seen it coming after the Met Office proclaimed 33*C in the SE for Monday (which would smash the existing BH Monday record) 🙄😆.

Not that it’s a disastrous outcome by any means;  a few scattered showers or thunderstorms possible in the SW and still warm to very warm widely across E&W.

When the worst case scenario, with monitory representation, is of that order... you know somethings behaving nicely for a change 😎.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's one steep drop in T850s -- 12C in 24 hours! And, even so, it's only back to not far off normal, for late August/early September...:oldgrin:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Hopefully, encroachment permitting, we'll be all set for a new all-time record for September...?:oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apologise for the limited postings from me this summer, partly I think a reflection of how unflattered I have been with the output.. with never any clear signal of locked in sustained settled nationwide warm conditions, yes the period late June and mid-late July was good, but both periods collapsed into not very good. Alas here we are again, it seems another pulse of heat from the south, just in time for Bank Holiday, indeed hallmarks with what happened over easter holiday, same timing. I've also noticed how the warm injections have each occurred at similiar timeframes this summer, roughly 4 weeks apart.. 

The models suggest the drier warm theme may hold through the rest of August more so in the SE, with the NW more at threat from the atlantic but nothing too wet or significantly unsettled. Longer term good chance we will see the inevitable dry settled theme for early september which has become very common over many recent years. Indeed on average it has been the most quiet time of year weatherwise - I tend to switch off completely from model watching come September - a month of benigness and dullness. That song title 'wake me up when september ends' coming the fore again..

Roll on October please!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The models do appear to be firming up on the medium term pattern which in the Atlantic arena, put simplistically, Is Bermuda ridge, Atlantic trough and east European ridge  Thus becoming more unsettled after this weekend, as the spot charts from the det run illustrate.

5-10.thumb.png.482224d520ce8d0a7c9e46cb53c253ed.png814day_03.thumb.gif.5ac0614888c1f9238490818545954f39.gif

144.thumb.png.6a910a122a7f7d1de70664584c587e27.png192.thumb.png.27933c785c34117d7ae1d578553347b9.pngindex.thumb.png.4663b10bdb2ec8f7f0b83ad233ade930.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM raw charts for next Wednesday hotter than the Saturday at the end of June 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warm if not very warm for the foreseeable on the models. A truly memorable bank holiday weekend in prospect, which will be welcomed by many. It’s been a up and down sort of summer. But if you take summer as 21 June to 21 Sep (as  I do), it could be a ‘good’ summer overall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

NW med range has the following maxes:

28°C on Saturday

32°C on Sunday

28°C on Monday

30°C on Tuesday

33°C at 12z on Wednesday so perhaps 34/35?

 

 

image.thumb.png.23f7a3ed9ecb7500fde4d2efa545f72e.pngimage.thumb.png.14293443090c15dc910950002b6f3c2d.pngimage.thumb.png.ed99620564588089b7aa4f8376c8b4c4.pngimage.thumb.png.aa218af7456a09980df954ce363ea430.pngimage.thumb.png.9d7b3cec2d0e6e8f0188fb3329b2926a.png

 

 

Edited by CheesepuffScott

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6432000.thumb.png.ad98cceb6fdb689dafa015d82a2f755e.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.fd681a9c55cb3769e6f5b94aeca9174e.gif

The persistent rain associated with the cold front will fragment this morning as the front hits the ridge but it will remain cloudy in Northern and western regions whilst the south will be sunnier and warmer, But out to the west a wave has formed on the front and this tracks rapidly east to bring moderate rain to N.Ireland, NW England and in particular western Scotland by midday and areas further east during the afternoon

PPVE89.thumb.gif.34b91d5021864814e4c5129b6a8c92c8.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.70fd6cbcc6418a4423f57f1bc1ca1312.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.6367aef51d01c15d1bfe2d085d1bdbb6.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.7db21b2628cd71fca5a0fd76b44d56cd.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.145f61ad5540090f3cea13088b7c02b6.png

The wave quickly moves through but the front is left trailing across northern Scotland through this evening and overnight so some prolonged rainfall across  north west Scotland. Clearer in the south with some mist/fog patches forming

PPVG89.thumb.gif.ea369d29574585d4545f1e4e19251152.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.d8de486da5a7d1e8e32a29bdc25eb686.pngprecip_d02_36.thumb.png.5dc35551bf0497676b5ccb1ab944f393.png

Friday morning the front finally shifts north and the rain ceases and to the west the Atlantic trough has moved east initiating the advection of warmer air into the country

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6561600.thumb.png.e954c6cd088f7ecce11a127c45aaede4.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.b76872a7bb0d142aac54c88eb314ade2.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.a5076b75c947a45525723dea9645b582.png

Over Friday night through Saturday the trough continues to move east and thus enhances the advection so a dry and warm day for most with some rain over N. Ireland and NW Scotland

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6648000.thumb.png.2dcb424381fc8ae0486c24dccf246026.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.ea5420decc8425eca263db12d3b99989.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.d2e3f5abfaf4e6e833650a5fbdbdf96e.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6669600.thumb.png.605c07e6ca0b2fdd0d5afb70f9429b41.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6669600.thumb.png.3dfb2d3deb8b014af76e057b607a7603.png

By Sunday the trough is deconstructing and a hot day ensues, still some patchy rain in the NW, but note the amplification upstream and the arrival of a new upper low south east of Greenland.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6734400.thumb.png.4402f7c5651ad6ad328b6e40b83eb450.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.b06b0920cb851b0132e1b6f99bb629e8.gifgfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6756000.thumb.png.f12f824bef06623609078d3f4c948681.png

By Monday we are entering an interesting new phase with the new trough becoming established in the Atlantic whilst a cut off upper low is created over Iberia from the old  Thus most of the UK is more or less in a col whilst a cold front edges closer to the north west establishing quite a regional variation in weather and temp

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6842400.thumb.png.06639fb1100657a3bf89e6fe4927d2e1.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.d5a9ee132e006de3999bdb92cfa3edfb.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6842400.thumb.png.61eb56a7fc2320cc8136d59180256af6.pnggfs-uk-t2m_c_max6-6842400.thumb.png.278920889264cb5ff243076d016556d5.png

The max temps as shown here are not written in stone before the usual discourse on the merits model temps is launched

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...