Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Looking at the EPS mean 5-10 anomaly, and NOAA, one can't help wondering whether the det run has gone a tad overboard

5-10.thumb.png.b952bfeff30611f5b7176e80399c1dc7.png610day_03.thumb.gif.361c242fe74557188d41fd72768cc5fb.gif

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean...summer returns...hallelujah !!!!!!👍🌞

EDM0-72.thumb.gif.5e7ac89dc430c5b16045fcf99d1c644d.gifEDM1-72.thumb.gif.486c97f24fb567d346d6c6445ce4ceac.gifEDM0-96.thumb.gif.dc9b7729eaee96bba2ab7e41f59f2c58.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.341b88957e205a1df946f5d27686ba03.gifEDM0-120.thumb.gif.4cc746f8e48346e8e1a3ed5417517bd8.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.06b64f35258f6f81f4d1dc31349c1554.gifEDM0-144.thumb.gif.df4f1811cd85b5cd0396c342d3635deb.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.3f73ba37071515b378863d0674c59148.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.cf2f7f20e613a856fa29053d09b575c4.gifEDM1-168.thumb.gif.dabd795a9440dac5c843bd038624ebb7.gifEDM0-192.thumb.gif.f16131843bf2b777342e48d208ff8e94.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.ab8c7c70992c1a98a45b352e979bbe91.gif

 

EDM1-216.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fabulous output in the quintessential summer month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WOW - wasn't expecting to see this kind of output so early in the season - 18z GFS -

image.png.602836457407863bec47c07f8adf5ccd.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - wasn't expecting to see this kind of output so early in the season - 18z GFS -

image.png.602836457407863bec47c07f8adf5ccd.png

 

No date, no timestamp, no bigger picture. Please elaborate?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

No date, no timestamp, no bigger picture. Please elaborate?!

its a joke!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

After a high pressure dominated weekend last evening's clusters then bring the trough more into play and certainly looking far more like a N/S split

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019082012_168.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019082012_192.thumb.png.4ff9f99542f7feac5dc28766e5d5fe17.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019082012_216.thumb.png.f01a59e3a61a07cf71be2c0bfdedf705.png

 

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midday today and the current sat image

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6388800.thumb.png.6c17a658460a0ca33c863e463eae162e.pngPPVE89.thumb.gif.0dea043c924139a50fa61fcb24779b73.gifmeteosat-msg_ir108_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.0a69b1a6261d5a21f04b1e28df5b5bc6.jpg

Showers around at the moment, some quite heavy, in western regions which will move east during the day, but apart from that many regions will be sunny with temps not too bad  But come midday moderate rain from the occlusion associated with the low south of Iceland will be effecting N. Ireland. and this will track east over Scotland and NW England during the afternoon.

335023480_maxwed.thumb.png.fbea2db596e1672fbfb7488178304434.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.0a9b313cbb0ee74edf6859d70f200799.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.d002628ade579e12e5e919ef0b573863.png

The rain will quickly clear into the North Sea leaving behind a legacy of showers but the cold front following on will track south east down the country through the night accompanied by a band of rain which will fragment as the front hits the ridge. Quite windy in the north

PPVG89.thumb.gif.a574f86859f2a7c00dae849102bb50d5.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.d6109273b460971918a251ec2d9819c8.pngprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.c7288d3d141f8f306e6ae237ecb02037.png

With the front still trailing across the country by midday Thursday it will remain cloud here with the best of the sunshine in the south. Still windy in the north with showers but a wave on the front will bring moderate rain into western Scotland by 1500 which will extend over all of Scotland by 1800

PPVI89.thumb.gif.2b2673232476d5fe441d798aeb35f7fd.gif1769806929_maxth.thumb.png.8ec22997d5bee114a86c68ba96cc54dc.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.02d03070651d2609bae55d4390ac741d.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.967d40d100d7933c8b86a2f9d4ee7b6b.png

Over Thursday night and through Friday the trough in the Atlantic moves east and a ridge builds over much of the UK but the traling front is still effecting northern Scotland so still some rain here.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6561600.thumb.png.3dfa63a840f30c769acc6ac69869fa94.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.2ec4042affd082f39a5adbb334afecf0.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.107ae7cd159c5eb4d0cbae7f8420df62.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-6572400.thumb.png.c870a2b451a1e63f30ceff686cc0e48d.png1184204559_maxfr.thumb.png.edc8cc0c441a315a018236358ade5f10.png

By Saturday the weak upper trough to the west is starting to deconstruct resulting in a dry and warm day.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6648000.thumb.png.dd5d7bd8582d33972071050e18eeaf52.png689112566_sat18.thumb.png.b50a2fc4aa093119dd2165d6de74f8df.png505217416_maxsat.thumb.png.800a5fb14391937aebd59a160cd68fb9.png

By midday Sunday amplification of the ridge in eastern North America has initiated the movement of a quite intense upper low into mid Atlantic and this has forced a weak trough across the north west of the country on what otherwise is a dry and very warm day.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6734400.thumb.png.8b927a2802826db60f3226b6375ec66e.png146981343_sun12.thumb.png.88558f2c85836733b242f46dc8077299.png1256684632_maxsun.thumb.png.e1aa5e12137a37b6b7dd2c0ae3b4c3b5.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, knocker said:

After a high pressure dominated weekend last evening's clusters then bring the trough more into play and certainly looking far more like a N/S split

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019082012_168.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019082012_192.thumb.png.4ff9f99542f7feac5dc28766e5d5fe17.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019082012_216.thumb.png.f01a59e3a61a07cf71be2c0bfdedf705.png

 

 

The 46 has been advertising an upper trough of sorts week 2 into 3 for a while now .......... how notable is the question. given how tough it’s proven for high heights to sustain this past couple months, it would be the form horse ......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By Monday the movement of the Atlantic trough and jet suppress any amplification of the Atlantic subtropical so westerly airflow over the UK

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6820800.thumb.png.729dec2eeb4e486d3b51d2c4da4a6dab.pnggfs-nhemi-z300_speed-6820800.thumb.png.a26eab0cd97fca1d17ab8f1babd34b96.png

mon.thumb.png.974125f8058862cd973f7afaf608a812.png1350016336_maxmon.thumb.png.789b22d5001525e45e346fd335dfab52.png

Looking at the GEF suggest the det run may be overcooking the influence of the trough a tad although it is indicating movement in the direction indicated by last evening's EPS. Need to see what the ecm comes up with this morning

gefs.thumb.png.26ba7a020544be47b09d8183ec8c7f1d.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The 46 has been advertising an upper trough of sorts week 2 into 3 for a while now .......... how notable is the question. given how tough it’s proven for high heights to sustain this past couple months, it would be the form horse ......

And the GEFS also along these lines it would appear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO T144 looks pretty hot. Might exceed 90F if sunshine levels are good. 

UW144-7.GIF?21-07

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well GFS suddenly gives maxes of only about 21c on Monday as a weak upper trough looks to move SE over the UK, fortunately it’s appears to be a pretty big outlier within the ensemble pack and the Ops 850s are 5-7c lower than the mean, that’s said it’s by no means on it’s on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ecm and ukmo both scorchers up to 144 hours this morning!gfs seems to have gone off on one again!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm amazed by how much the GFS Op runs have been chopping and changing over the past week- it appears to struggling at the moment at relatively short range too.

Meanwhile the ECM and UKMO continue to show a hot few days nationwide. This is increasingly looking like the best August Bank Holiday in a very long time.  I can't even remember the last really good one across the whole country.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The ecm has more amplification in the Atlantic and thus a more meridional jet and to very warm days Mon/Tues

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-6820800.thumb.png.095eea15cc771cdb75173c0a4b6bbddc.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-6820800.thumb.png.5fdbb4885d72e3a4336d60b3e2db0ee8.pngindex.thumb.png.6098a9bbca521f4abefd4b5a6189cba1.png

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-6756000.thumb.png.39c3427bcab628ea16ae44e63075f4c5.pngecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-6842400.thumb.png.198669276225b50b6d8d2e372c115c7f.png

It will be interesting to see whether the EPS supports such intense amplification in the Atlantic arena during the early part of next week

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles are quite confusing: on September 2nd, the Operational and Control runs are 'near identical' cold outliers, and there's 15C of scatter (T850s) between the members...Are we seeing extra 'uncertainty' within the weather here, or over-sensitivity within the model's algorithms?:cc_confused:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Let the strangeness continue...?:oldgood:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The weekend fax charts that I have just managed to locate as the usual site is not updating at the moment, would suggest some showery. thundery activity in the south west on Sunday Of coarse the big question from this point is how much will the energy flows suppress the ridge?

667942750_UKMet_Boden96.thumb.gif.5994406c3b68a12c4ea241066663eda2.gif1725904412_UKMet_Boden120.thumb.gif.e447641c3608ca30a233374097841aa3.gif

Anyway enough of this, I'm off out to enjoy the sunshine

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have to agree with comments above that GFS appears to be struggling at the moment. It was out on a limb with its forecast of a deep Low over the UK on BH Monday and back-tracked to fall in line with other models. Into next week and a look at the ECM v GFS 3-day mean 500mb height anomaly for 27th - 29th Aug shows the big two are still disagreeing about the way forward:

678718627_ECM-GFS500mbHgtAnom21Augfor27-29Aug.thumb.jpg.44be17a4ee8ffdcc595f114a9966aa34.jpg

Interestingly, a look at the GEFS perturbation spread for 27th Aug gives a clue about why such a difference between the two models in the height anomaly chart above - the area of most uncertainty in the northern hemisphere is the area in question to the north of the UK. The prosecution rests its case m'lud! :oldsmile:

1838373553_GEFSSpreadTue27Aug14_00.thumb.png.2e51958321b51772028f118f29f6f96b.png

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKV take on Saturday/Sunday temps. Monday not quite within its reach atm..2017020992_viewimage(29).thumb.png.bbae7dcf8c3d16623d58be5742098910.png32976569_viewimage(30).thumb.png.941a6529a2fb04f30a4641324e13f95e.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

UKV take on Saturday/Sunday temps. Monday not quite within its reach atm..2017020992_viewimage(29).thumb.png.bbae7dcf8c3d16623d58be5742098910.png32976569_viewimage(30).thumb.png.941a6529a2fb04f30a4641324e13f95e.png

 

Looks good to me - I suspect gfs is horribly off the mark today, and that we will see temperatures around the 30c level - perhaps as high as 32c. Still a lot to iron out, before a gradual breakdown from the west through the middle of next week. Looks decent enough to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The EPS mean perhaps suggesting the det is overcooking the amplification with some rain ingressing the north on Monday whilst staying very warm in the south. But of course thisis  really no good for detail so the clusters need to be looked at later if anyone is interested.

2064080035_144rain.thumb.png.82b29b79a1368bd82aaa458e665b5b52.pngindex.thumb.png.49b4f84672a97a73b2e44b5f5f9d3656.png

It begins to look as if the timing of this holiday weekend was spot on

5-10.thumb.png.8fe61e5d766cf03cfc2af4dbe4de6b1d.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really do think the gfs is barking up tbe wrong tree here!!latest icon 06z still consistent and completely disregards the gfs and looks pretty much identical to the ecm!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, shaky said:

I really do think the gfs is barking up tbe wrong tree here!!latest icon 06z still consistent and completely disregards the gfs and looks pretty much identical to the ecm!!

GFS has been a shockingly poor performer of late, no doubt about it. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...