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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Looking quite close to the september analogues

It will be very interesting to see if we lose the -NAO in Sept in favour of the above^

Looks good for now..

Do we want to lose the -NAO or not regarding how things may evolve thereafter for winter?, i am not really sold either way to be honest, logic would suggest the longer the -nao persists then the better but the last few years we have had a weak vortex in late Autumn and none have delivered, i can also remember very stormy first half of Nov's but then cracking winters.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Output getting better and better for the bank holiday weekend. 

ECM has trailed this well. Kudos if it got it right from maximum range. 

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Gfs 06z already backtracking towards ecm!!stronger ridge across the uk at 120 hours!!

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Brilliant Ecm 0z operational..charts speak for themselves!!!!!!!🔥🔥💘💘💘💘💘💘🌞🌞👍

72_thickuk.thumb.png.d945fc881f8f8c4bf2c548be89c4603d.png72_mslp500.thumb.png.92462fdb6265b499f45da5006fa6296a.png96_thickuk.thumb.png.c170a901c207b72353aa3b103d0c28f6.png96_mslp500.thumb.png.a07483e9a022c11ff065b0afd7b83d23.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.206464408cf18aaf13c0de13ce2cd327.png120_mslp850.thumb.png.430db398c7218b8e73bb14af4ea6e437.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.aa8c195fc2741cab758fab65eb34d76c.png144_mslp850.thumb.png.d9421778a7f906ef1884e59a0106cb0b.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.0d7ea067b4a4700f7c43186d7b3c87d7.png168_mslp500.thumb.png.9a916acbb38949b3195862a8ea1b6ec3.png168_mslp850.thumb.png.5299a18dfa336c0aa44139e4c7087451.png168_thick.thumb.png.148e1ffcd3d540795875a73bad95fe30.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.0674aa296b6510885be3a210ad62a252.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.1a829902e7ce69df1dd4b5f1833e70ee.png192_mslp500.thumb.png.9357202137bd048c1a5c23f44ae1edaa.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.11b9a15be2539fbc14422f00bdad7889.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.6ac8671a0e68106a20c386c81e982ada.png9837579_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.f0c0448bcbeb4f2b3c83e6afdf9eee76.pngCraig-Revel-Horwood-10.thumb.jpg.23b6841eef221485a46866946709de9c.jpg

 

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Posted (edited)

A much drier 10 days outlook to look forward to here in SW UK and turning warmer too with 23-24C possible in SE Wales and highs of 22-23C in Devon 😊☀️🍦🍦🍦🍺🍺🍺

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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A very respectable 6z with temps widely near to or touching 30c on Bank Holiday Monday.

1325313573_viewimage(28).thumb.png.94deffc6755d2d772f4fce80b4a6dfb6.png1405874122_viewimage(27).thumb.png.fd3ef8b3da90b0b7dcc5bae8af883ae4.png

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So the ECM brings summer back! Now it appears the GFS 6z also brings it back.... Along with the heat.... One last hoorahh folks.... Beers and barbys at the ready.... So far so good. 

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-1-144.png

giphy.gif

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Looking at the ECM weeklies for the next 4 weeks this week and next week sees temps a bit above average overall with below average rain away from the NW 

Week 1                                                      Week 2

w1.thumb.png.b5669a76c107fff9d4b21c1c30031ba7.pngw2.thumb.png.fd60553b33a086e1d5f1befab28021a3.png

Week 3

The start of autumn looks very unsettled UK wide with above average rainfall and temps fairly close to average overall

w3.thumb.png.5e72fc3136168c98a17aeead10558de7.png

Week 4

A drier picture nationally with below average rainfall with temps around average

w4.thumb.png.85e44b77d132df2c81952dec54b7b269.png

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Wow!!!gfs 06z a huge outlier from the 28th onwards in terms of pressure!!to think this evenings run could be even better than the 06z is staggering😁☀️🌡🔥

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A common theme appears to be a very warm/hot final week of August, encompassing the Bank Holiday fortunately, before a resumption of the Atlantic to open up September - very plausible given the time of year and not uncommon following a plumey scenario.

Typical that the one year I decide to go away at the end of August, there appears to be hot weather at the end of August grrr. If only we could've had these upcoming synoptics earlier in the month!

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44 minutes ago, MP-R said:

A common theme appears to be a very warm/hot final week of August, encompassing the Bank Holiday fortunately, before a resumption of the Atlantic to open up September - very plausible given the time of year and not uncommon following a plumey scenario.

Typical that the one year I decide to go away at the end of August, there appears to be hot weather at the end of August grrr. If only we could've had these upcoming synoptics earlier in the month!

I'm not seeing this Atlantic onslaught into September! I'm pretty sure exeter are also not seeing it! I'm favouring a settled 1st half... Beyond that.... Who knows... 

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25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm not seeing this Atlantic onslaught into September! I'm pretty sure exeter are also not seeing it! I'm favouring a settled 1st half... Beyond that.... Who knows... 

I wouldn't say onslaught, hardly a succession of barrel lows, just a return to normal conditions. I can only see high pressure holding firm into September, though, if there's a strong enough Scandi high for a link up. If this doesn't happen, I feel a N/S split at first that opens up the door to the jet moving south again. Alternatively, and one option that has appeared more than once, is high pressure to actually move NWwards, allowing low pressure to encroach from the southwest. Then of course, we are in to the great unknown as to whether any extra-tropical activity rears its head.

Basically, let's enjoy this upcoming spell of weather first, then concentrate on post-breakdown as and when that happens. I just think some expectation management is needed with regards to prolonged nationwide high pressure.

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Posted (edited)

Nice sunny day here but with a lot of interesting Ci and some quite big Cu which the Camborne sounding indicates being quite moist aloft. No doubt courtesy of the warm front clues by

PPVA89.gif2019082012.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.f715befdf722902586a6dd0482777702.gif

 

Edited by knocker

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Good start to the 12zs from the icon!!starting this friday its hot and sunny all the way till the end of the run!!

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Scorcher of a ukmo 12z up to 144 hours and the gfs improves yet again on its 12z run!!out to 144 hours so far!!high slap bang over the uk!!

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It looks like (going by the 12Z ensembles) that the precipitous fall in temperature, just prior to month's end, is not exactly a done deal?:oldgrin:

 t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

We've been having plumes for six months already!:shok:

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It's not very often we can big up the August Bank Holiday weather in this country... But I have to say this is shaping up to be a peach!!!! One last boom for the summer.... And hopefully many more to come for the winter!! 

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144 (1).gif

ECM0-144 (1).gif

giphy-1.gif

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Posted (edited)

Apparent key element of this evening's ecm vis the bank holiday is the upstream amplification that initiates a new upper trough dropping into the Atlantic which in turn promotes a surge north east of the subtropical high

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-6648000.thumb.png.81cb2b423564285f0f561fb9b6ad9467.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-6734400.thumb.png.c8f9f32399341199a03e21991e45def6.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-6820800.thumb.png.d58d465ac5ab9f167835d408a29319b3.png

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

Good riddance crap autumnal uppers..welcome back summer!!!👍🔥

0_thickuk.thumb.png.23897603f10c81acf2af0ce2fb9c8580.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.d0a8b3504fc543fa3ca6679ac6d68104.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.b2720d1a0d1ada8301357c21832ed37c.png192_thickuk.thumb.png.78e642fcbb21b9165c90ff8ce550d39d.png192_mslp850.thumb.png.f677307f174e4b54a0074bbb05b52d16.png216_thickuk.thumb.png.0884862ccb663fa6b65e044a1553b830.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.515d3ec72d1ee9db32c24b50fbcc64fa.png

Edited by JON SNOW

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Posted (edited)

And the continued evolution from the above post results in this 5-10 anomaly

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7166400.thumb.png.8a836ce4ac6745cc1e03c4b337df2f28.png

Edited by knocker

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Well once there was uncertainty about the bank holiday, that has totally gone, now with cross model consensus at T144.  And an important part of that is agreement that the low to the south west will be cut off.   Here GFS, UKMO, ECM, GEM, JMA and GFS legacy at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.1c481cce8c9842757176d0bf649fe02a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.caf966e7607ef976192682596745d53d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.457302413efdc04a3e4cbe00175a26b4.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2fd13dc8894697e818ebbe5d0cfa80b7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7ab637be8df88b6a53ce62ce00b36ac1.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2bed71f5f0748b1ca5710020b20d59c1.jpg

Most welcome end to summer!

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ECM offers 4 days in a row with widespread 15*C+ 850s across the S half of the UK.

Thats not bad going at all!

Somewhat odd-looking sequence after Tue as the main high is further east than FV3 has it and yet we sit in a vague soup of heat until the breakdown finally gets underway on D10.

As much as I expect FV3 is being too progressive as usual, I think the main part of the ridge will need to stick around more to delay it until the final day of the month.

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What a fantastic set of 12z runs!!ecm hot all the way till the end!!!looking forward to the 18z now!!

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