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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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The models seem to be having trouble deciding what our weather will be like for the coming bank holiday week, but for my money the GEM has the best solution:

image.thumb.gif.3d4e193af27e10cc09ddbcdaf08b9529.gif

The building high pressure manages to keep the troughs at bay - at least for a few days - bringing settled conditions for almost everyone.  This would be a good way to bring August to a close and usher in Autumn!

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Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles, rather like yesterday's did, seem to go 'off the rails' a bit, post Day 8, with the remaining eight-days or so looking quite chaotic::cc_confused:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

On the plus side, things do look like staying mostly dry!:oldgood:

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The longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean in particular fills me with hope that there is going to be a return of summery weather!!!!!👍🌞

EDM1-144.thumb.gif.362ebf9c6f69658d7a6156899c98c365.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.089c48c90ce37478ddcd946e743bff90.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.e26a09fa593359b678d7096f8de682d9.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.5c8fd679a1ae8e8b2d1006c09c58a6c3.gifEDM0-240.thumb.gif.5b119f3bfae596e85081e469149b8c27.gif

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From an IMBY perspective getting through the long weekend and the following one which is the airshow in Bournemouth with a decent spell of weather would be enough to flip summer into the decent category, that said the models this don’t fill me with joy, there’s quite a difference between GFS and ECM post about a weeks time, the ‘lesser’ models seem to be split as well through this time frame. Normally you’d back the slightly better ECM forecast however it’s not been in great form this summer so have the feeling something a bit more unsettled may still be on the cards. As usual pinning down any cutofffs or upper troughs will be key to the overall picture.

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Saturday's nae looking too bad, according to the GFS 06Z, with 15C 850s inching closer to SE England...Dare I call it 'encroachment'?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

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The south gets to around 30c next weekend with the mid 20's quite widely in central and eastern England. Temps not as high in the north and west but it should be dry away from NW Scotland so in any sunshine it would be a very pleasant weekend if it comes off

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.c68f7ec1d11a5dfa83871b7e389bfbf0.png1023756135_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.f294e1a67abb3ad650b481cfa41ef1d6.png

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gfs 00 and 06 for midday Sunday. If ever one needed a reminder of the unreliable time frame

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6734400.thumb.png.9190c9e7499e01bbc9216409ed659bac.pngsun.thumb.png.069f44ac1efd31c0dcd973f57c011520.png

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Bank holiday weekend looking warm if not very warm for the SE quadrant.

Interesting.

And well trailed by the models, if it comes off.

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I'm kind of expecting the 12s to firm up next weekend a bit, here's UKMO and the two GFS at T96:

image.thumb.jpg.db659894845f21b60a7a764c87327760.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b8af658cf5b3d4052145170f9f15dbc0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d8013249c75119866a29097d14a2dc36.jpg

This looks great for the south with high pressure in control.

Moving on to T144:

image.thumb.jpg.b6fb0ddb8845a560200720a960701a44.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.51dd861c3e15aa3f47ff8e474de74012.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.07f7ca2b2a47dbf9816dee8b222e2b26.jpg

Suggestions that it becomes a bit less settled at this point.

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Hmmm...GFS T192, not what I wanted for the bank holiday!

image.thumb.jpg.2c30689206d594046d314acb10e0a5fe.jpg

Just shows the uncertainty as we get to the weekend and beyond.

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Difficult to believe what the gfs is up to. No more deconstructing the trough instead another trough enters the fray, suppresses the Atlantic subtropical high, and opens a channel to the west through which an intensive outface low travels

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-6648000.thumb.png.c6863d857e38a1da9514e9aa8d2a7602.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-6745200.thumb.png.e08883e181ac7e87ae62061c9c39f4c0.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-6810000.thumb.png.d94ca70b2f0d41c03021bfad6754b214.pnggfs-natl_wide-z300_speed-6810000.thumb.png.880819daa1f8ec3e74f9b839fbf6b1f0.png

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm...GFS T192, not what I wanted for the bank holiday!

image.thumb.jpg.2c30689206d594046d314acb10e0a5fe.jpg

Just shows the uncertainty as we get to the weekend and beyond.

Quite a bizarre run but as you say highlights the uncertainty.

Hopefully a big outlier and won't be repeated.

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I think the GFS may be overdoing that low...

image.thumb.png.5e0e986265cd0b39f32fa5ca5787627c.png

Please be settled for next week🤣🤣🤣

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This is just the sort of pattern for which I prefer to save the word 'autumnal'!:oldlaugh:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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Posted (edited)

So it's mixed signals from the main models regarding the Bank Holidays! I'm gonna kind of sit on the fence and say a N/S split looks increasingly likely, but I'm still fairly optimistic of more generally wider settled and warmer conditions to develop beyond the Bank Holiday!! But as it stands I will take the GEM at day 8 and frame it.... Its looks pretty good.... So here's hoping for some lovely seaside conditions come the big day. 

gem-0-192.png

gem-1-192.png

homer.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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If I had any unfluence over the weather at all, and I'm sure you're all very thankful I don't, I'd pay quite a large amount of money for a chart like this to verify.

 

 

 

viewimage.thumb.png.4b55f32f5d8e08745c83ecc614a885ba.png

 

 

viewimage.png

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18 minutes ago, Terminal Moraine said:

If I had any unfluence over the weather at all, and I'm sure you're all very thankful I don't, I'd pay quite a large amount of money for a chart like this to verify.

 

 

 

viewimage.thumb.png.4b55f32f5d8e08745c83ecc614a885ba.png

 

 

viewimage.png

I really respect your opinion, I don't agree with you but to say something that the majority won't like is refreshing...however, I would pay a large amount of money for the GEFS 12z P19 to verify..seen more than enough of autumn this August already!👍😁

19_222_500mb.thumb.png.79d7e2034830cae22fc079eb88d1d28e.png

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For what it's worth, the UKMO 12z looks broadly similar to the 00z ECM for D6, so if ECM sticks to the 'rapid ridge replacement' solution with minimal influence from lows to our south or north, then that'll be significant in my book.

Not saying it will, mind - the tropical signals are unusually volatile in the 10-day period.

The 12z FV3 relies upon a much flatter N. Atlantic jet profile plus a shallow but moisture-laden disturbance racing across to find a sweet spot for deepening while affecting the UK. If that combination manifests - which would represent an unusually dramatic lurch back to a Nina-like pattern from a Nino-like one this Thu-Sat - then those who aren't of the Terminal Moraine mindset will have every right to feel very hard done by.

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And, just in case anyone was wondering, there's a smidgen of uncertainty evident in the GEFS 12Z ensembles!:oldlaugh:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

It's the op's turn to lose a goolie!😬

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Hmmm...GFS T192, not what I wanted for the bank holiday!

image.thumb.jpg.2c30689206d594046d314acb10e0a5fe.jpg

Just shows the uncertainty as we get to the weekend and beyond.

Compare with ECM T192 which is quite different:

image.thumb.jpg.8d4e1df1789f8f42c5ff0c6a95bdef6e.jpg

Uncertainty, yes, but my feeling is the GFS solution is just too extreme given the expected evolution, ECM looks good with power to add.

Edit, and add it did, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.cae220304084ef62250e730a8bb00422.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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Leaving aside the gfs perhaps the models firming up along the lines of this evening's ecm with a shallow trough running across the the north Sat/Sun

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-6669600.thumb.png.8ae1f6e682e1bf82ceb4db62bfde43a4.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-6756000.thumb.png.7c471c510257c58977cb3d8d45a312fb.png

156.thumb.png.1013162675ee0ad340ecb8a0d7c2d4fc.png174.thumb.png.1c30f40871e399d31f9a0641d6898c45.png

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Who needs the GFS, when we have the ECM!!! that's a beauty of a run towards the end.... 

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM1-240.gif

giphy.gif

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The significant feature of the later half of the ecm output would appear to be the quite intense upstream amplification

index.thumb.png.a6cc8a6704f86767d090dfc1dde59595.png

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The GFS solution is clearly an outlier, however it wouldn’t be first time a GFS outlier has come off this summer, could really do with that energy being displayed all together, wouldn’t take much for the ecm run to end up like GFS however on the flip of that ECM could easily remain high pressure all the way - while historical events offer no insights into the actual future bank holidays have a tendency to start out warm/hot and rapidly deteriorate through Sunday with the Monday being a hollower, wouldn’t bet against that next weekend. 

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32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS solution is clearly an outlier, however it wouldn’t be first time a GFS outlier has come off this summer, could really do with that energy being displayed all together, wouldn’t take much for the ecm run to end up like GFS however on the flip of that ECM could easily remain high pressure all the way - while historical events offer no insights into the actual future bank holidays have a tendency to start out warm/hot and rapidly deteriorate through Sunday with the Monday being a hollower, wouldn’t bet against that next weekend. 

Really? Do you have evidence that they have that tendency? Not that it’s in any way relevant anyway. You might as well consult tea leaves.

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