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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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The 6z into the run and towards Month end certainly shows a more settled warmer outlook compared to the 12z. With High Pressure over the UK bringing a warm S/E flow.

137120091_viewimage(23).thumb.png.acf35de7462a56f00ba028df8f6bc6a5.png 

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GFS6z another interesting run in FI trying to retrogress the high.

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Assuming retrogression of the high towards Greenland, the question is whether a trough slides in underneath from the southwest, potentially bringing a wetter but still quite warm start to September, or low pressure over Scandinavia helps usher in more of northerly flow i.e. drier but much cooler. Interesting indeed.

In the short term, however, perhaps Friday this week will be worse in terms of rain than the weekend itself (I certainly hope so given outdoor plans on Saturday), then an improvement beyond the weekend. Next week could be very decent indeed, leading to a 2017-esque Bank Holiday weekend.

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Not a bad set of 06Z ensembles:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And, even right at the very end, the 06Z looks okay...which is in-tune with the thoughts of Those Who Cannot Be Named?:oldgood:

And a lovely low in mid-Atlantic too!                                                      h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

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25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS6z another interesting run in FI trying to retrogress the high.

lets hope it can stay in this type of pattern until the end of December!

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Posted (edited)

There was no great agreement between NOAA and the EPS this morning with the former not showing much interest in any ridging close to the UK in the 5-10 range. Although one has to take a punt on where the surface features reside the clusters at the end of the period would not suggest much amplification of the subtropical high either.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081400_192.thumb.png.0022167b9adb501d1b0e8c68385f482e.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081400_240.thumb.png.242737e79beed8dea4be77ca15f2f1ff.png

And, although I accept that taking one day is really a no no, no particular signs of it in the ext period either. But not surprisingly the Atlantic is positively anonymous so nothing nasty lurking in the woodshed

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081400_312.thumb.png.9a38caec0ff279769c52f2236e62b0ff.png

Edited by knocker

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There is finally light at the end of this unsettled tunnel... All the signs and signals are now pointing to a decent fine spell. Just how warm is still open to question but I would say a very nice spell of late summer weather looks a good call. The 6z literally plants high pressure over us... And it's been a while since we have witnessed such charts.... Fingers crossed for a beauty of a Bank Holiday! 

gfs-0-198.png

gfs-0-216.png

gfs-0-240 (1).png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-288.png

tenor.gif

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Models shaping up here. BH weekend looking promising indeed. 

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Still rather too much influence from the trough and weak jet from the gfs in the 5-10 period which tends to restrict any substantial amplification of the subtropical high and thus very much a tendency towards a N/S split over the UK

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6648000.thumb.png.8d58418bae12b0b10690d68d85a58a04.pnggfs-nhemi-z250_speed-6475200.thumb.png.b9d5453487d0d4bc2a3a0a8c5c98aacc.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6648000.thumb.png.79f42b0fe0f41db4939565ce8688d6c5.png

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Posted (edited)

A very nice trend from next midweek onwards on the GEFS 12z mean with summer gradually returning following this autumnal wet, cool occasionally windy spell!👍

21_174_500mb.thumb.png.81b198c7270be80f3640409c36476568.png21_198_500mb.thumb.png.c8ede3b9075278cf8010f351ca293c91.png21_222_500mb.thumb.png.42d9dc32044663aa1d8af6e23f4f7c21.png21_246_500mb.thumb.png.4426d6722896a0488de8216efa903ffe.png21_270_500mb.thumb.png.0fd4b43df1e05258d67cf9cb459f3249.png21_294_500mb.thumb.png.d0e82081bd7a3562660913c6523d3c34.png21_318_500mb.thumb.png.7071de56b8dd9367194ac5aa8fdf7053.png21_342_500mb.thumb.png.f431a96003d050b89da9f0782dd2f8f7.png21_366_500mb.thumb.png.6455e59fadad8333639966d20231aad7.png

 

 

 

Edited by Jon Snow

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Just viewed the 12z GFS. What struck me is the ongoing tendency for heights wanting to pull west. It's something we've seen all summer thus far. 

An improving picture, for sure, but how long it lasts is open to much debate.

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A nice set of 12Z ensembles, and pretty much in line with Tamara's earlier musings...:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.ec289c6e2086272d67d6e60b59cd0f95.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Now here's a thought...Let's let the HP in before we start to retrogress it?:oldgrin:

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z operational turns into a beauty, high pressure and much warmer!!👍🌞

168_mslp500.thumb.png.f3108c8d8c7dcb61812f87cbaf7cd61d.png192_mslp500.thumb.png.aba07b53682f1baeab23a08b110387f7.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.683ca4b7a66bf86d162e92073925981c.png1707345830_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.aa45e3d47d9541170d8fb11a2a91cb7f.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.a00a672c71b4c08b42c6ef4f1f7e4c9f.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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The focus from the ecm for next week revolves around the battle between the subtropical high ridging north east and the energy crossing the Atlantic. Initially still unsettled but settling down a tad as the ridge gains some traction  But this remains a pretty fluid scenario so the EPS will be interesting later

144.thumb.png.a6aca7f7bae5b330c6d437c6fc892c8b.png168.thumb.png.aa62b7d8c8d98dc5c9a8d17c354648d9.png192.thumb.png.be908dba841cd11288dbd8a23afacba8.png216.thumb.png.4a79edfd16c63a788f26beda474095d9.pngjet.thumb.png.0ba865293c03396e1493e6b59b006393.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6604800.thumb.png.dd15c172e9c6157b9feab43018ac4ecd.png

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Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean longer term is great in terms of high pressure becoming the dominant feature!👍🌞

EDM1-192.thumb.gif.9bc643f635841ac66ec8d4f17e50b58b.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.3f4324180a869ed08dd0e306a8d72ae6.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.a307315cc615d0e43b9883e8cc267203.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

The North Atlantic500mb and surface analysis for midnight.(The weekend low can be seen in the western Atlantic)

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5827200.thumb.png.c8e3661fdc959609c6291a90ddd98d21.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.38546189f13620afcd6e0e6d35ecfa3b.gif

Still some showers around in the west at the moment and these will filter east a tad before generally fading away as a transient ridge moves across the UK Resulting in a generally sunny and quite warm day, in comparison of late, for most areas. But by evening more persistent rain will arrive in N. Ireland and particularly western Scotland courtesy of the warm front associated with the aforementioned low which is moving rapidly east.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.e8d9b5b00af3eeab80680ff48f00f796.gif1662210193_maxth.thumb.png.4c7d3f831456ac1f532642a26652545c.pngprecip_d02_27.thumb.png.0f613b86966af0b367074de1b1d8bef7.png

Through the night the rain moves east and intensifies to cover most of the north west by dawn

precip_d02_30.thumb.png.7bf66787fe4f63aeba62fe9cf86a2864.pngprecip_d02_33.thumb.png.68481fdbfabaa56f108b4710cbe9bb7f.pngprecip_d02_38.thumb.png.05fee1bfb8b245ac29ded5cdcb5cc8da.png

By midday tomorrow the low is 983mb NW of Ireland with a myriad of frontal systems crossing the country in the strengthening wind so a very wet and windy day for all

PPVI89.thumb.gif.c884d69715c050a5f459cd026b770ca4.gif1049183659_maxfr.thumb.png.862e7d6a119c11e086a73eecfb876443.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.e92de08838cf1b796caf82c92b39f226.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.6f3d15fb013fa9501b8050c3a87133c6.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.bdaeac531b434a80bbda4f433c314a82.png

Over Friday night and through Saturday, as the low edges further east, the fronts do eventually clear away to the leaving the country in a strong westerly airstream, with gales in western coastal areas, and frequent squally showers. These could well be thundery in the vicinity of the trough.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.8eec79c1660989b9e3a506911c28c7d5.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.cc5937d5f2222f4cb7be63ef90768d0f.gif146666035_maxsat.thumb.png.902dd72dbfa2aa5856151d2556e4953b.png

By midday Sunday the center of the low 985mb over northern Scotland with the wrap around occlusion across N. Ireland and southern Scotland so still a risk of thundery showers here and possible on the trough lying across south west regions. Apart from this sunny intervals and still quite windy.in another rather cool day

PPVM89.thumb.gif.cee9c7746c0b5200dc90609552b42504.gif863405298_maxsu.thumb.png.c95dedabee5a4af140a1b53694d662c8.png

On Monday the low is filling west of southern Norway but the occlusion is still draped across the north thus still a risk of thundery showers in the strong wind,in this region. Less windy further south with sunshine and showers but again the risk of the odd storm on any troughs floating about andit what will be generally another cool day

PPVO89.thumb.gif.c98029830b58b744bdca6ff4a4efb77d.gif539933506_maxsu.thumb.png.d24eb1b54f2b5e6535751e20439f4fd1.png

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)

Continuing showery on Tuesday/Weds but less windy on Wednesday as the subtropical high starts to amplify to the west#

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6388800.thumb.png.04cf864f373c59024f25f121caa303dd.pngt132.thumb.png.9241401972371217f8d6f684919c1d0d.png156.thumb.png.fc335f1d388cb06bac618c58cbbe4d60.png

Over the next couple of days the amplification continues and nudges east over the UK as the next trough becomes neutrally aligned as it stretches south in mid Atlantic.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6561600.thumb.png.0109f1ce28d08069ac9d91393f1e3433.pngt180.thumb.png.61130fd522d996d56f6c45fae1463150.pngt204.thumb.png.dcf9f2b2fc799e0f92658591cc55832b.png

This is of course according to the gfs.

The GEFS mean anomaly in the medium term is supportive of the subtropical high becoming more influential

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6864000.thumb.png.e410648d628ed2d1bdc9745d771d4ba5.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6864000.thumb.png.6d2300337e31a9429a50316aa15b4238.png

 

Edited by knocker

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unusual charts certainly, this more like May than Aug, warm seas though so less sea mist?

h850t850eu.png

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The weekend low and frontal system at 0600

meteosat-msg_ir108_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.168c8bf2c183522d6f5ab6f537f8d7c9.jpg

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According to the ecm this morning the eastbound energy, to some extent, curtails the amplification of the subtropical high and this allows frontal systems to track across the country Fr/Sat albeit weakening. This detail is of course quite academic at this range but it does highlight the problem,that remains to be resolved

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-6475200.thumb.png.14555cc3772046ce1d25ad23b51f03d3.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-6561600.thumb.png.6e9f35c27d3b0c60e3b9e5427cb4b0a8.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-6648000.thumb.png.dcd4ff4465120b7df3351f88626d1f28.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-6561600.thumb.png.44b2d775aa34430266006b6cbdbf8bb4.png

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This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles clearly predict a sustained rise in SLP, though where the HP goes, as we approach Day 16, is anyone's guess...?:oldgrin:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Drying-out time is coming!:oldgood:

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Posted (edited)

Once the deep low from this weekend clears away early next week we have continued signals for high pressure to build.

It doesn't look like we'll be dragging up any hot air, so I'd say temps ranging from around the mid 20s towards the south-east and upper teens/low 20s in Scotland with light winds and some sunshine it would be a huge improvement than we've had of late

ECMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.9682bb57dce08da85820c8a930501051.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.8c86dcf68090b0accbeb906c871c3745.png

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.352e8b6322dfeef9b7bf359c8bb41532.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.cf6c67e4aebc0409de4d37b3a662ef28.png

ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.72505fddca3a4fb0bd21b829264d7d60.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun

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25c and sunny skies now a real prospect in the SE quadrant over the bank holiday weekend. 

That will be welcomed by many. Fantastic charts, classic English summer conditions, not too hot but warm and lovely.

 

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This looks tasty. Very very tasty!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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