Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

I'll be very surprised to see the current upturn in the further outlook become a sustained feature in all honesty. We've seen the modelling perform tricks like this all summer- it looks like the -NAO will relent only for it to return pretty sharpish soon after. There's nothing teleconnection wise that suggests there will be enough to force a more prolonged pattern change just yet?

I think we may squeeze a week of decent weather to end August and the summer as a whole?

Edited by CreweCold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z mean shows there's strong 💪support for a return of summery anticyclonic weather later this month..possibly even another plume..the 3rd this summer!!!!!👍🔥🌞

21_246_500mb.thumb.png.0eed1ac760533cdc44cd5a4d2f7837be.png21_270_500mb.thumb.png.f8dcf4c2520baf7cf283d1f7bd414247.png21_294_500mb.thumb.png.092860d63f2a85577a8fba251fe79d1c.png21_318_500mb.thumb.png.a1113654848464ce066ca889406b718a.png1_318_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.679926acc1204835d2dea2e70baa4138.png1_318_850tmp.thumb.png.38a6305948021f976ba8bd3fea061f4b.png10_378_850tmp.thumb.png.d31ced8da1f53dff9e5978e21e1e0692.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember guys this is the september H5 anomaly for the Negative NAO years MJJA since 07 -

You can see at some point soon ( whether that be the last week of August or early Sept ) for the -NAO to collapse & the core anomaly to head to Scandi ..

640E50BF-4E61-48FF-9700-8D4EBCBA2E93.thumb.jpeg.d6b7d3f0a95f1ee631f4f2675f4ed63b.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm weeklies update is looking at a fairly neutral NAO for the foreseeable

ecmwf-nao-box-5568000.thumb.png.293a924671e2c56da85ffbb56e03aad8.png

Which not surprisingly this is being reflected in the Atlantic pattern for the final week of August and the the first week of September with the trough retrogressing and weakening and the anomalies trending positive in both the Atlantic and Europe. So although continuing with the westerly upper flow it is abating somewhat, particularly in the eastern Atlantic, which facilitates greater influence from the subtropical high which remains centred to the south west. Thus certainly a much drier period with what rain there is generally concentrated in the north west and temps around average before trending a tad above

aug.thumb.png.77750d4d9dab3af0b3a16dae3ab51ae2.png1924527357_ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-7900800sept.thumb.png.90b1ee40dab027e551821ef0ca799933.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But far more to the point is the arrival of the next low at the end of the week with more rain and strong winds. The ecm take subsequent to Friday

ecmwf-natl_wide-z200_speed-5913600.thumb.png.4f34b9dd19d2492b28dcf7cb76fe58c7.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.c4bdbda2d25d206749fd166aec885d50.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.098868b4df7a1154c52827a856951f78.gif

sat.thumb.png.f276f51dd06d1740c6bef9d07a512b2f.pngsun.thumb.png.c0f6fbee59f5356de21f741e9f68f22f.pngmon.thumb.png.6e97ac8ceaa6499850250eb13f138b7c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

A gradual improvement next week, especially further south on the Ecm 12z operational with the trough(s) clearing out of the way and high pressure starting to build / ridge in from the SW... could be shaping up nicely for late August and the BH!!👍🌞

168_mslp500.thumb.png.ff7934c87845db1af58c80eaddc2c64d.png192_mslp500.thumb.png.b46d19e09c389b8634762045ab983597.png216_mslp500.thumb.png.14d19f0591ed4453028bc5da04dc7455.png1913827684_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.24d8b9457210c7577dbd557fd317e510.png

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, knocker said:

 

For once I actually agree with you. Quite a deep low pressure bringing strong winds and a fair bit of rain to boot.... I'm quite surprised myself, its received little mention. 

UW72-21.gif

xx_model-en-330-0_modezrpd_2019081312_69_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modezrpd_2019081312_73_18_155.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting outlook for the long BH weekend. That is what most people will be focusing on. Warm and dry, sunny, on current charts. But still relatively far away in forecasting terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

For once I actually agree with you. Quite a deep low pressure bringing strong winds and a fair bit of rain to boot.... I'm quite surprised myself, its received little mention. 

UW72-21.gif

xx_model-en-330-0_modezrpd_2019081312_69_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modezrpd_2019081312_73_18_155.png

Looks wet at times but relatively modest in the SE quadrant where lots of members live. Sunday looking brighter then better next week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Interesting outlook for the long BH weekend. That is what most people will be focusing on. Warm and dry, sunny, on current charts. But still relatively far away in forecasting terms.

Indeed, mid / longer term signal for more settled has strengthened further today, especially from the GEFS and now the Ecm.. still beyond the reliable timeframe but I'm quietly confident it's going to become more summer like during the last quarter of August, at least across southern uk.👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Ecm 12z ensemble mean / operational heading in the right direction next week!!!!👍

EDM1-240.thumb.gif.9fa16a1f9de82cd5cd6558902229f358.gifECM1-240.thumb.gif.941a207d8747377d9afd819a3382cd52.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Looks wet at times but relatively modest in the SE quadrant where lots of members live. Sunday looking brighter then better next week. 

I've been banging the drum for summery conditions for ages.... Yes the extended looks promising... But being as this is the model discussion thread, it only makes sense to be viewing the conditions over several days! Especially when there are some adverse conditions likely!! Namely tomorrow, and again on Friday into Saturday.. Beyond that.... Yes it improves... But in the short term... Baten down those hatches.. 

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Interesting outlook for the long BH weekend. That is what most people will be focusing on. Warm and dry, sunny, on current charts. But still relatively far away in forecasting terms.

Precisely. There is plenty of time to focus so just to repeat the quote from my old friend Sammy Rachevsky. The accuracy of the model output is inversely proportional to the distance from time zero. Ergo it is sensible to assess the output from time zero out, rather than day ten in

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, CreweCold said:

 

Back to the models, wet at times tomorrow, nice Thursday, wet at times Friday and Saturday then improving. BH looks warm in the SE - but a long way to go!

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Downpour said:

but it’s perfectly reasonable to focus on your own region when model watching

Yes. In the regional threads.

This thread is for discussing the models covering a broad area. If there are weather events taking place, various threads pop up elsewhere on the forum for members to who wish to discuss impacts/thoughts etc. 

We try to keep the in my back yard theme away from here, as tempers can fray, particularly in the Winter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Outlook – a shallow wave and associated fronts are currently bringing some wet and breezy weather to the country but way to the west, north east of Newfoundland, another more active low is developing which will run rapidly east on the jet to be adjacent to Stornoway 983mb by midday on Saturday.

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 250mb wind field

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5740800.thumb.png.82b8eb05317196ace8b87007891037d3.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-5740800.thumb.png.6949bbef7430ce9331edfc8fd17f32a5.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.5ae50a3c405c9bd5ff77c4187cb2b990.gif

The large belt of rain associated with the initial frontal system will move east through today clearing most areas by early afternoon with clearer periods to follow. But the occlusion is looping back so thundery showers may well break out in the vicinity of this And also the wave is moving close to the Hebrides and this and another occlusion will bring more persistent rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1500. This will track east and become quite heavy over Scotland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.1a9ffd71af8f7c3970b9c612132fa505.gif595997533_maxwed.thumb.png.7d762c0012e1df9d29b4ab639ac8a3ec.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.cf5801d90f84922bc93adc6d4b8d50b7.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.d5bc58fb375a3b163b41edfda9e72142.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.98ecd8fe2d9dff740974367b7081c2f1.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.e27293a8c4d93f19dabdefe654292fc9.png

The wave and front continue to track NE/E tonight so the heavy rain will continue in Scotland until the early hours and there will be a legacy of showers in western regions behind the front. Elsewhere remaining dry

PPVG89.thumb.gif.3f7b6331c0a67342f82e2bb136009907.gifprecip_d02_27.thumb.png.d67e306ed67c4645511e80763edf8de3.pngprecip_d02_32.thumb.png.aa21c299133703b86237da11af348ad5.png

By midday Thursday the system is well clear to the east and once any initial cloud clears it will be a mainly sunny day in most areas as a transient ridge passes through. But to the west the aforementioned low is getting it's act together

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5870400.thumb.png.2c31b6b9734c62def1c18af8ec297e03.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.4c09f6cc3584726521b29e4a4230e445.gif508003025_maxth.thumb.png.61483e262df6a4c42f2b265f2427d12a.png

Over Thursday night and through Friday the low continues to track east and rain from the initial warm front will impact the north west by 0300 to be quickly followed by other systems resulting a very wet and windy day for the country on Friday

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5956800.thumb.png.938109a39484188f5a816df13b95a18a.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.72860afa8724d684fadb80c647729d48.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.f64df49fbab3f7e2474408a04ea474c3.gif

gfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-5924400.thumb.png.1ba0c4d3573c7d5714e859fd5ef419b9.pnggfs-uk-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-5989200.thumb.png.6775d7e41ac080cd909ef27b064f658c.png84575808_maxfr.thumb.png.702c72cefeccb30f0e44fd94f2907f02.png

During the weekend the low will slowly fill as it tracks north east from near Stornoway to Lerwick leaving the UK in the very breezy NW/W circulation with blustery showers which may coalesce at times with the odd trough embedded in the circulation and the occlusion still draped over Scotland A cool and not particularly pleasant weekend.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-6129600.thumb.png.2ffe58b46223da4d55fe643fdebe79bf.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.ae69d1c7d995a9c1027c1be7fd5974f7.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.0ce32cc9f60d808466e7bab60f289808.gif

1389032428_maxsat.thumb.png.842aaf6e537648e507840f5140f26868.png1090658122_maxsun.thumb.png.7a86a24c016fcbd84b2df481463711a0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Which brings us to next week with the gfs

Essentially at the beginning of the week it has the east European subtropical high amplifying and the trough over the UK weakening before becoming a non feature. This facilitates some movement north east of the Atlantic subtropical high but this is restricted by a quite strong jet still tracking across the Atlantic. Ergo systems can still run east and impact the UK but effecting the north of the country much more

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6604800.thumb.png.b779401bc1902ceeae3c06ae0218b1ba.pnggfs-natl_wide-z250_speed-6432000.thumb.png.acf0716ce1fab2e89201644116398164.png

156.thumb.png.2837bfecc8d336b92b3361c9c5897baa.png180.thumb.png.950c18e1a4188daeae34bf584e01461c.png204.thumb.png.64c0f54f2c4558f8df6c9accaf2606fb.png

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm has similar scenario to the gfs for the latter half of the run with one vital difference and that is it has stronger amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high and thus more resilience to the eastbound energy.Thus the ridge across the UK effectively stops any major incursion in the north with much of the country being dry from Tuesday onwards, albeit temps still a tad below average. Obviously the detail for next week still to be sorted

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-6604800.thumb.png.ec422f7f2f908708e48b9fd74172f660.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6604800.thumb.png.99503dc5ab5e771c792f14f69c3a97c3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.557ac03b18ed01f3ae81220c1ff9ab70.pngimage.thumb.png.105bcacf88a4ab8db23461d4d03f3388.pngimage.thumb.png.48ccf728eae14c985bfab64a2db17374.png

Here comes the dry weather - and hopefully a bit of sun. In that set up the orientation of the high isn't favourable for any heat, but dry and around average will do after all the wind and rain recently.

Edited by mb018538

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Clusters last night in the same ballpark:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081312_240.

By 300:
ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081312_300.

First time we've seen those dark reds near the UK for a while - probably indicating a strong ridge setting up in our locale towards the end of the month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Once this weekends deep low clears away continued signals are for things to gradually settle down next week across the country

London

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.4f43fb24dc6edfa211193c01bf9e787b.png

NE England

ne.thumb.png.7816bfd5554569a24418056c71f984fd.png

Southern Scotland

sco.thumb.png.c8a0fc5599d9af04c97bfc1e36ab4c4c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles still looking okay...for a time, at least?:unsure2:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The EPS mean anomaly not dissenting a great deal from the det run  An east European ridge and weakening trough, vortex lobe northern Canada and westerly upper flow running across the Atlantic towards some ridging over the UK from the subtropical high.

In the ext period we now have positive anomalies across the board but the westerly upper flow remains in situ, albeit abating in the east, with a weak trough in mid Atlantic and no appreciable amplification of the subtropical high. So trending towards a quiet and drier period of weather with higher pressure becoming more influential and temps beginning to poke their nose above the norm

5-10.thumb.png.66343ead7ca812f5f264a2f92e16f6e3.png9-14.thumb.png.bc4082d318a4594375fe5cedd40eca07.pngtemp.thumb.png.324255c08f45e7e2c2e3c9d922d2b3f5.png

It has to be said that NOAA is not totally on board with this in the nearer time frame

610day_03.thumb.gif.9bb1a4e819b686ff874e28ead2d2b779.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.0badf03ce88f701f7c1c0df2e2e99c52.gif

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting 0z runs this morning.

The Euro this morning builds the high to the north and east over the UK while keeping relatively cool uppers.

The GFS builds an Azores ridge to our south east (final heatwave of the summer) but actually has the Atlantic back by the 27th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I think I will take the Euro outcome over the GFS... yes the latter would bring much warmer conditions, but the former would bring a longer lasting settled spell, with the high pressure acting more like a block to the Atlantic!! The GFS idea would bring us a potential heat up... But also a quicker return to unsettled conditions.... And just in time for the Bank Holiday!! 

gfs-0-240.png

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...