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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

ICON 18z shoves core of heat E fairly quickly once again. 

I'm actually quite sad to be honest, was quite prepared to see a notable spell of heat and associated storms!

ICON is far from the be all and end all. From what I can see in the output this evening, we are STILL (amusingly and frustratingly!) some way away from firm agreement on the longevity of this hot spell.

It'd take a brave soul to definitively call the end of the heat confidently, timewise.

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1 minute ago, Onding said:

ICON is far from the be all and end all. From what I can see in the output this evening, we are STILL (amusingly and frustratingly!) some way away from firm agreement on the longevity of this hot spell.

It'd take a brave soul to definitively call the end of the heat confidently, timewise.

Climatology suggests that an eastwards shift is more likely than a westwards one. That's the fact of the matter. It's just like when cold starts to get moderated in winter as we get closer to the event.

Of course, it could flip back to a more prolonged affair, but IMO the odds of that are below 10% chance

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3 minutes ago, Onding said:

ICON is far from the be all and end all. From what I can see in the output this evening, we are STILL (amusingly and frustratingly!) some way away from firm agreement on the longevity of this hot spell.

It'd take a brave soul to definitively call the end of the heat confidently, timewise.

The general concensus from the extended ensembles is for fresher conditions to spread from the W/NW by end of the week... Beyond that the mean is pretty much what we have been experiencing the last couple of weeks... Looking at the pressure graphs, there appears no clear signal for any pattern to dominate. I would say with some confidence it's going down the traditional path of a NW/SE split... Temps probably remaining pretty decent in sunnir spells. The EC46 paints a Terrible picture for the NW next month... But this is a long way off, and all seasonal type models need to be taken with a huge pinch of salt. 

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Regardless of how long it lasts, Tuesday looks increasingly hot. Quite a few models going decently into the 30s. If the heat can hold for a little longer probably mid 30s quite probable...however at this stage too early to tell beyond Tuesday.

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18 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s the ICON!

The icon probably deserves more credit than it gets though, it has been the first to pick up on a pattern change more than once... Vorsprung durch Technik..... 😉

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

The icon probably deserves more credit than it gets though, it has been the first to pick up on a pattern change more than once... Vorsprung durch Technik..... 😉

True but it is prone to wild swings from run to run. Probably on a par with GEM.

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So, I thought tonight might be the evening everything became clear but alas, no - there still seems enough disagreement past Tuesday to keep me guessing - the ECM again turned out a run that could see 38, 39 dare I say 40C in the SE (not my guess work but using their own raw data as a starting point) - whilst the UKMO threatens us with shoving everything away soon after Wednesday morning. And the GFS 06Z provided the insanity run just for good measure that would have made 1976 look like a gentle breeze, and there remains a cluster in support of this option. 

I can't call this yet - maybe tomorrow we'll finally see agreement? It's got to come soon! 

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

So, I thought tonight might be the evening everything became clear but alas, no - there still seems enough disagreement past Tuesday to keep me guessing - the ECM again turned out a run that could see 38, 39 dare I say 40C in the SE (not my guess work but using their own raw data as a starting point) - whilst the UKMO threatens us with shoving everything away soon after Wednesday morning. And the GFS 06Z provided the insanity run just for good measure that would have made 1976 look like a gentle breeze, and there remains a cluster in support of this option. 

I can't call this yet - maybe tomorrow we'll finally see agreement? It's got to come soon! 

I'm bemused as to how/why we keep getting dry breakdowns. 

The GFS 18z is a case in point.

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We have everything here on the 18z...Greenland heights and scandy heights! 

gfsnh-0-174.png

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'm bemused as to how/why we keep getting dry breakdowns. 

The GFS 18z is a case in point.

I've noticed this too and I'm not sure if it is selective memory, but these 'dry' breakdowns seem more common over the past couple of years. Heat getting swept away with a band of cloud and naff all exciting storm activity, followed by SW/W'erly winds. I am wondering if it is partly because the LP systems are following the kink in the Jet too close to the UK, causing it to head up W of Ireland, rather than having a classic Iberian thundery LOW heading North towards S UK.

18z GFS is going with the Jet and an associated Atlantic LP systems forcing the heat east a little more quickly, but still warm/hot and humid for the majority of next week. Remaining decent enough after that too to be honest (on this run).

 

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Hmmm 18z GFS is pretty progressive and gets the Atlantic through quickly. By Friday the mean for the 850s is a whopping 5c cooler than the 12z run with nearly all the ensembles dropping the idea of a split jet and subsequent extension of the heat. In my mind while only one output that seems a rapid switch suggesting more clarity on the situation and unfortunately a downgrade. That said still shooting for 33-35c on Wednesday I feel so could be way worse! 

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7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmmm 18z GFS is pretty progressive and gets the Atlantic through quickly. By Friday the mean for the 850s is a whopping 5c cooler than the 12z run with nearly all the ensembles dropping the idea of a split jet and subsequent extension of the heat. In my mind while only one output that seems a rapid switch suggesting more clarity on the situation and unfortunately a downgrade. That said still shooting for 33-35c on Wednesday I feel so could be way worse! 

Yes, hot until Fri then some lovely settled warm weather returning late weekend after a couple of fresher days ..

image.thumb.png.fd130923f9cc2e903b28f4061e4d69db.png

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I urge people to wait a few more runs until writing off the the length of the warm/hot spell. Models can and will flip in an instant. I have just got a feeling this time it's different. The models have been all over the place coming up to this warm spell and I'm sure it's far from finalised. We know it's gonna get warm sometime early next week but we don't really no how warm or how long it's gonna last. I think we are on to something very very special this year. Take for example the models at min are predicting the Atlantic to breakthrough by next Thursday day in my area. That's 6/7 days away and no way would I trust any model that far away. If I'm honest at 4 days out we are still not 100% accurate. Night all. 

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It has been interesting following the Met Office local forecast for my location today (London Ealing).. 8am this morning had Tuesday as the only day to achieve 30c+. By 2pm Tuesday & Wednesday were forecast for 30c+ And now at 1am Tuesday Wednesday Thursday are +30c.. To me this is indicative of a model shift or change in background signal

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Posted (edited)

Well, its going to be a sizzling week for many looking at the 00z runs so far..

UKMO 850s reveal a couple of very hot days before  LP swings up from the SW at 144..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Looks to me like it will be 3-4 very warm/hot days, Monday to Wednesday or Thursday. This morning’s GFS has Thursday seeing the peak of the heat with 35’C in the South East.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looks to me like it will be 3-4 very warm/hot days, Monday to Wednesday or Thursday. This morning’s GFS has Thursday seeing the peak of the heat with 35’C in the South East.

And add a couple of degrees to that then potentially another shot at the July record looks likely.

Edited by Djdazzle

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A lot of the GFS ensembles seem to agree on the heat being pushed out by Thursday, but the main 0z GFS run itself doesn't agree. Split still exists although if taking it at face value, the even hotter scenario is looking less likely.

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3 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

A lot of the GFS ensembles seem to agree on the heat being pushed out by Thursday, but the main 0z GFS run itself doesn't agree. Split still exists although if taking it at face value, the even hotter scenario is looking less likely.

UKMO showing a potentially very hot day on Thu too. I would give more credence to the op at that range.

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00z ensembles completely killing the notion of a split jet - it’s gone from nearly 50% support in yesterday’s runs to just 1/20 now. GFS has 35c in the se on Thursday though, still a scorcher!

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

00z ensembles completely killing the notion of a split jet - it’s gone from nearly 50% support in yesterday’s runs to just 1/20 now. GFS has 35c in the se on Thursday though, still a scorcher!

Yes, thur or fri will see the heat swept aside looking at the 00z data...

Mon tues wed look very warm to hot , thur still up for grabs..

Edited by northwestsnow

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Tuesday still looking hot across a vast part of the country, widespread 30c seems likely, though I suspect we will be somewhat limited as the import of the hottest air isn't until quite late.

Beyond that and models restrict the more intense heat to the SE, but still time for both West and East adjustment s.

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Posted (edited)

Looks to me like the models have been pushing the peak heat backwards, from Tuesday to Wednesday and now Thursday, but with the earlier period of next week still very warm/hot.

In fact the ECM still has the 20’C isotherm over the South East by Friday.

Edited by MattStoke

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Potentially 3 consecutive days of 90F plus, which is still notable in the UK. Agree that Thursday is now looking like the peak day.

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ECM 0z uppers seemingly the same as they were on the 12z (maybe slightly faster on being pushed out) keeping a decent amount of heat until at least Friday still. If anything it feels like the ECM and GFS are getting further away from each other the closer we get to the event...

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