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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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So next week looking more unsettled with low pressure close to our shores.. The pattern through to mid month looks perhaps changeable. Tonight's EC46 is again banging the drum for the Azores high to flex it muscles beyond mid month into the final 3rd,and it looks to become quite dominant towards the SW... so i would say away from the NW signs are emerging of a better 2nd half of August.. This has been consistent for the last few runs now. Temperatures also on the warm side. It's along way off but encouraging signs all the same. So whether you think August is an autumnal month or not, there is still plenty of scope for another warm up, and hopefully a much more settled 2nd half..... 

giphy.gif

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

So next week looking more unsettled with low pressure close to our shores.. The pattern through to mid month looks perhaps changeable. Tonight's EC46 is again banging the drum for the Azores high to flex it muscles beyond mid month into the final 3rd,and it looks to become quite dominant towards the SW... so i would say away from the NW signs are emerging of a better 2nd half of August.. This has been consistent for the last few runs now. Temperatures also on the warm side. It's along way off but encouraging signs all the same. So whether you think August is an autumnal month or not, there is still plenty of scope for another warm up, and hopefully a much more settled 2nd half..... 

giphy.gif

But above average precipitation the EC call at the moment.... 

EA3DgPPXYAA2FIo.thumb.jpg.28c775613510179efbffb904945b7e54.jpg

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I don't mean to veer off topic but with the dam at risk of collapse in Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire, what’s the rainfall looking like in that area for the next couple of days? 

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1 hour ago, Josh Rubio said:

I don't mean to veer off topic but with the dam at risk of collapse in Whaley Bridge, Derbyshire, what’s the rainfall looking like in that area for the next couple of days? 

A few showers are possible there in the next couple of days with perhaps more general rain on Sunday? 

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The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-4704000.thumb.png.ab431ff7e3c1f960ede0da89064198d9.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.4348859211362060db6b10e0cefcc94a.gif

With the low that has caused all of the recent problems now well out the way, to be replaced by a transient ridge, hopefully that will see the end of the recent intense downpours, for a while at least. Currently it's dry in most places with just a few showers along the east coast and it will remain so in many areas through the day with a fair amount of sunshine but cloud will bubble up during the day and showers of much less intense variety will develop, mainly in western regions

PPVE89.thumb.gif.1e80b000f38eb796af18bbb3b89e2abd.gif1166654287_maxfr.thumb.png.06d5bce34966db13c852ad16a28dc622.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.fd72a878057b7afb1a034cab228d1772.png

The showers will clear this evening leaving a clear night but perhaps some cloud in eastern regions in the light onshore breeze

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d319344c1d96846e3c67b199bb78ecd1.gif925wind_d02_30.thumb.png.3bc62ffeb396d6dd4a58bf4fd7a7acd6.png

Saturday will generally be a sunny and warm day but showers will again develop in western regions and one or two could be thundery. But the upper low to the west is edging closer and fronts associated with the surface low will bring showery rain to N. Ireland later.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-4833600.thumb.png.0895ad317c1c0084bd62143a5457e8a0.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.0f32b9d6ab52bf8f9e2cdde30deb4ec7.gif

precip_d02_48.thumb.png.c589e8463e8531b34414b58bd032dbd0.png2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.4f68031aec8f1d7a8fab4d73ed8dfa91.png

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the fronts and rain track northeast across the country so quite a wet day in most areas but the south east will be warm and sunny.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-4920000.thumb.png.8745fe19c945d74afb8c8bac01132bdc.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.2a30f074a81f9b7ff044b6d75d3e540d.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.38586f0d65b5b953b9002fcdc80d2d48.gif

469461212_rainsun12.thumb.png.484b078f4d60697e3109416335c9130e.png2059273660_rainsun21.thumb.png.0ae4dc839d393746bc3e8aaee4e744b4.png649643763_maxsun.thumb.png.3599356e7fcea20f08c73845283d7fcf.png

By Monday/Tuesday we are looking at a pattern that has been discussed in previous posts and low pressure is once again dominating and over the two days there will be showers, longer periods of rain and sunny intervals.

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5049600.thumb.png.9202dcb5f0a212b4d7b98117c3249cf2.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.0126c410aaffd7dde44268ea3fb69b5e.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.f9d114567fe32715b7c0250c3f4ea33c.gif

625183562_maxmon.thumb.png.8d41bf1d40c22789e7dfa508b0b2ba6c.png892031512_maxtues.thumb.png.b5ce863e045ed1aae617cf2ec2818597.png

 

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In the 5-10 period the gfs NH 500mb anomaly is much as has been previously discussed  A block to the north west and the trough and jet running along the 'corridor' N. Canada > Atlantic > UK > European trough. So an unsettled period and with the upper flow a fair way south the troughs are slowly tracking SW > NE.so we are looking at temps varying around the average

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5395200.thumb.png.26c565c48bb430ccde58969d62793176.pnggfs-nhemi-z250_speed-5395200.thumb.png.23ecfbf5764d7a92192d0f15606d99e7.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5568000.thumb.png.2c9d2f1cbaf1049052899d5adf03e711.png

Some spot charts

144.thumb.png.eb1a928d4d9889f40b7533bbad31fea8.png168.thumb.png.3e7c9f983a3e006d89434b41a83e016b.png

192.thumb.png.9a86bc4d6475721ed029f7897c6ad13d.png216.thumb.png.9e75bec1e038a36efb8129f63ddfdce6.png

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The 0500 UTC chart. A lot of mist around in southern Britain which should clear rapidly

05.thumb.gif.4395f8218dc9ebf82bcb56f8ea1dd369.gif

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Posted (edited)

A quick look at the end of next week with the ecm

The upper trough is more or less over the UK and a surface low tracks ENE resulting in an unsettled three days with showers, a longer period of rain, and sunny intervals, Temps around average

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5222400.thumb.png.9078fa5c62a380b60f24d60eeef0ca99.png

132.thumb.png.a88c9a9e0f74e510eb328d4206f4dcdf.png156.thumb.png.f354e0e5de0b4a41da2608f9e39f58e1.png180.thumb.png.453e5d6fe83404f7e6fd647c8fcf527e.png

Edited by knocker

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I’ve pretty much started to give up with this summer now. What is it with August? All those memories of years gone by of the school summer holidays being a time of sunshine and hot days.....now it’s just unsettled year after year. Looks very poor next week, with only the far S/E escaping a soaking. Flooding concerns in the north and Scotland.

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From this morning's GEFS 0Z ensembles, it appears that, for the next nine-days or so, we're likely to see more of what we've just had: rather warm, humid and with rain never very far away? After the 11th? Who knows? But there are no signs of an imminent return to anything hot and sunny...🤔

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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Posted (edited)

Best way to describe the next 7 to 10 days is that weather wise we’re going to be on a bit of a rollercoaster- ridge, trough, ridge, trough. Southerly tracking jet with areas of low pressure spinning up and slowly moving across the UK, interspersed with ridges of higher pressure and pulses of warm air pushing up from the south. 

As ever, the best of any drier, sunnier, warmer interludes will be in the SE and the wettest weather likely to be towards western and northern areas, however all of us likely to get a bit of a soaking. 

Edited by danm

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Catacol said:

But above average precipitation the EC call at the moment.... 

EA3DgPPXYAA2FIo.thumb.jpg.28c775613510179efbffb904945b7e54.jpg

Yes catacol, the precipitation amounts are on the high side especially in the North and NW. But perhaps becoming drier towards the SW with time. Thanks for posting those charts, I've just viewed the precipitation charts for the uk and they are quite high... Very high for the W/NW. I'm quite surprised being as there was a signal for heights to devolop from the SW, which if it it does rainfall amounts would be a fair bit lower here beyond mid month. But yes after viewing them it would incline that things do look rather unsettled to say the least.. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes catacol, the precipitation amounts are on the high side especially in the North and NW. But perhaps becoming drier towards the SW with time. Thanks for posting those charts, I've just viewed the precipitation charts for the uk and they are quite high... Very high for the W/NW. I'm quite surprised being as there was a signal for heights to devolop from the SW, which if it it does rainfall amounts would be a fair bit lower here beyond mid month. But yes after viewing them it would incline that things do look rather unsettled to say the least.. 

Its a very poor pattern Matt 😞

Moreso the further North and west on heads.

EC is terrible this morning, i'm the 1st one to ramp up nice charts in summertime, but iv'e all but given up the 1st half of August- my hope is the 2nd half turns out better 🙂

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a very poor pattern Matt 😞

Moreso the further North and west on heads.

EC is terrible this morning, i'm the 1st one to ramp up nice charts in summertime, but iv'e all but given up the 1st half of August- my hope is the 2nd half turns out better 🙂

Yes mate I agree. I didn't view the precipitation charts last night. I was aware it was unsettled out to at least mid-month. But I did notice heights to the SW gaining more of a foothold in the final 3rd. Obviously this could mean a better spell for the S/SW and not so good further North. On the other hand it's a long way off and may not happen at all. But yes I agree hopefully things turn better later, if not perhaps September a last saving grace! It sounds like Winter all over again.... Perhaps next month will deliver... Then the next month, and so on... At that point its all finished... The crowd are on the pitch... They think its all over..... Give it another 4 weeks and it will be.... 😂

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

Yes mate I agree. I didn't view the precipitation charts last night. I was aware it was unsettled out to at least mid-month. But I did notice heights to the SW gaining more of a foothold in the final 3rd. Obviously this could mean a better spell for the S/SW and not so good further North. On the other hand it's a long way off and may not happen at all. But yes I agree hopefully things turn better later, if not perhaps September a last saving grace! It sounds like Winter all over again.... Perhaps next month will deliver... Then the next month, and so on... At that point its all finished... The crowd are on the pitch... They think its all over..... Give it another 4 weeks and it will be.... 😂

Haha 🙂

Yes, i'm also aware that predicting weeks in advance is loaded with pitfalls so maybe the models will throw a curveball over the next few days..

At this juncture though, at face value, it doesn't look good, we have flooding issues in the north west already so i'd be delighted, esp for those affected, if the models do change course.

All we can do is watch, and hope i guess..

 

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The ensembles out to August 16th from ECM showing Glasgow with a mean temperature of 4.6c...pressure coming in around 1007mb..Towards Birmingham we have a mean of 6c and pressure around 1010mb..not great viewing in all honesty... Still time for an upturn though... Enjoy your days folks.... I need a time out before my head falls off..... 😂

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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The ensembles out to August 16th from ECM showing Glasgow with a mean temperature of 4.6c...pressure coming in around 1007mb..Towards Birmingham we have a mean of 6c and pressure around 1010mb..not great viewing in all honesty... Still time for an upturn though... Enjoy your days folks.... I need a time out before my head falls off..... 😂

Quite!

If it were not for the fact that many folks have already seen far more rain than is necessary, I'd find the prospect of warmish, humid and potentially thundery weather exciting...But, one can have too much of a 'good' thing!?:oldsad:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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theres still no tangible sign of anything settled in last night noaa 500mb charts. the only slight diffrence is pressure looks like building a bit over southern europe. this might bring slightly less unsettled conditions to the far south and possibly signal the track of atlantic lows might be a little further north. but the mean upper flow remains sourced over northern canada, not that northern canada is particually cold yet, but synoptically these charts are about as far away from a settled anticyclonic spell as you can get.  ..... oh, and just a reminder, im a heat lover, id be happy with 35c everyday in august! but  its looking like 25c wont even be reached away from the southeast. the outlook is - unsettled with rain never far away on a daily basis.

610day_03.thumb.gif.7630dd4ae6423a8ca78c375af91342e6.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.f3465c5ce2eb959b9bed221413bc01df.gif

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Quite!

If it were not for the fact that many folks have already seen far more rain than is necessary, I'd find the prospect of warmish, humid and potentially thundery weather exciting...But, one can have too much of a 'good' thing!?:oldsad:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Yes Pete I agree. But like you say some folks up North are having far to much of it. Not much is gonna change over the next 7-10 day's.. Infact serious flooding issues will result in places... Not good... The set up this year is quite bizarre again, in June we had a set up that wouldn't have been out of place in March!! In early August we could end up with a set up more a kin to Autumn.... Now just what's the chances that come September, we will be saying..... This weather is more fitting for July!! And come December we maybe saying... Strooth... These conditions wouldn't be out of place in May!!! We are all over the place in my opinion... Yes lots of rain in the coming days especially for areas who could do without it. Hopefully beyond mid month improves! Alot of water to flow under the bridge just yet... Or in some cases enough water to bring down a bridge.. Only in the UK my friend.. 😉

Edited by Mattwolves

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27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

theres still no tangible sign of anything settled in last night noaa 500mb charts. the only slight diffrence is pressure looks like building a bit over southern europe. this might bring slightly less unsettled conditions to the far south and possibly signal the track of atlantic lows might be a little further north. but the mean upper flow remains sourced over northern canada, not that northern canada is particually cold yet, but synoptically these charts are about as far away from a settled anticyclonic spell as you can get.  ..... oh, and just a reminder, im a heat lover, id be happy with 35c everyday in august! but  its looking like 25c wont even be reached away from the southeast. the outlook is - unsettled with rain never far away on a daily basis.

610day_03.thumb.gif.7630dd4ae6423a8ca78c375af91342e6.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.f3465c5ce2eb959b9bed221413bc01df.gif

And as before mushy. no argument from the EPS this morning

9-14.thumb.png.aa12f687775e400b8f4af347e2547992.png

And a quick glance at the latest weeklies does not fill one with joy over the following ten days. We shall see

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-6691200.thumb.png.887e0cb4c464832d4b5daa10975903b2.png

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Posted (edited)

The Gem 0z shows quite a warm up with low pressure dropping anchor to the west and much warmer continental air being scooped up ahead of it with weak heights to the east..plume potential? 👍

gem-1-204.thumb.png.d951657ed2ca3675f501ffd8af84f5e8.pnggem-0-204.thumb.png.86bce2116d1dcc54bd8c424a602fe06b.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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55 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Pete I agree. But like you say some folks up North are having far to much of it. Not much is gonna change over the next 7-10 day's.. Infact serious flooding issues will result in places... Not good... The set up this year is quite bizarre again, in June we had a set up that wouldn't have been out of place in March!! In early August we could end up with a set up more a kin to Autumn.... Now just what's the chances that come September, we will be saying..... This weather is more fitting for July!! And come December we maybe saying... Strooth... These conditions wouldn't be out of place in May!!! We are all over the place in my opinion... Yes lots of rain in the coming days especially for areas who could do without it. Hopefully beyond mid month improves! Alot of water to flow under the bridge just yet... Or in some cases enough water to bring down a bridge.. Only in the UK my friend.. 😉

 I've been saying all along that the seasons are out of kilter and the warning signs were there with the rubbish (as in no cold & snow) during the winter just gone. February had barmy temps if you remember.

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Posted (edited)

At least there are suggestions of something plumey, on the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Though, it must be said, the 2m operational tries very hard at being a warm outlier! Must be more balloon data?😁

Edited by Ed Stone

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1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

The Gem 0z shows quite a warm up with low pressure dropping anchor to the west and much warmer continental air being scooped up ahead of it with weak heights to the east..plume potential? 👍

gem-1-204.thumb.png.d951657ed2ca3675f501ffd8af84f5e8.pnggem-0-204.thumb.png.86bce2116d1dcc54bd8c424a602fe06b.png

Yes Karl we still can't rule out some very warm air at times. I've also just noticed a more positive update from exeter, regarding higher pressure and warmer conditions beyond mid month, especially further South... It seems just nobody has a grip on conditions this month, so much chopping and changing. Fingers crossed for one more notable spell to end the summer,then we can spend the next 6 months banging our heads against a brick wall chasing  that elusive pot of gold called winter... 🍯👍

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