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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Well I am off to Cordoba/Spain next week where 40 degs is unfortunately nailed on...

It does look like the beast from the South for the UK next week at points, especially the South if any record temps could be broken but 22 deg 850`s in Hull is pretty impressive indeed. 

Via the ECM, it`s a swift brush on the 850`s, Weds - South up to the Humber and Thurs a little touch more Ne but that`s your lot on raging temps next week it seems.

So this is 2 years in a row where July has had a flirt with 30+ Degs, not unusual at all but climate change is starting to become a lot clearer imo.

 

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Posted (edited)

I would much prefer a protracted hot spell than just a couple of days, there's certainly a chance of stringing 4 or 5 hot days together next week (possibly longer), at least for the southeast going by some of the model runs today..fingers crossed!👍

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

ECU1-144.GIF?19-0   ECU0-144.GIF?19-0

The ECM keeps the ridge to the east much more robustly compared to the others, Thursday has a slack southerly with 850s up to 23C in the south east after three days of hot conditions preceding it. This would put us in record breaking territory here but major uncertainly regarding how the trough pushes east through next week.

Later on, that parent low is still situated far enough away that high pressure could very well take control again, with temperatures remaining warm/very warm.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Here's the UKV take on temperatures. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday

Monday.thumb.png.0e3bc1446e5e31645c1d5be97c1f6418.pngTuesday.thumb.png.857cf356466f4a17b56fe45872d0cca4.pngWednesday.thumb.png.97c22f70d259d94fcd8977690e1bf3a0.png

Cooler on Wednesday largely I suspect due to increased cloud/thundery showers.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I would much prefer a protracted hot spell than just a couple of days, there's certainly a chance of stringing 4 or 5 hot days together next week, at least for the southeast going by some of the model runs today..fingers crossed!👍

but you don't live in the SE?

but Aye models do look good for summer fans, 30 degrees and higher tue to thur, then 25-26 after that

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1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECU1-144.GIF?19-0   ECU0-144.GIF?19-0

The ECM keeps the ridge to the east much more robustly compared to the others, Thursday has a slack southerly with 850s up to 23C in the south east after three days of hot conditions preceding it. This would put us in record breaking territory here but major uncertainly regarding how the trough pushes east through next week.

Later on, that parent low is still situated far enough away that high pressure could very well returned quickly, still warm/very warm.

Yes, next weekend could be nice - not raging heat but very warm.

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Stick to model discussion please.

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Personally i would take EC det with open arms, its hot and spicy, and the cool down still looks warm for many.

Trouble is  , i still dont have much confidence beyond 96 hrs is nailed on yet.

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Ecm mean folks... Still very warm but core of the heat pushing East.. We gradually see a cool off towards the end, this pretty much ties in with the 14 day extended mean, which I will bring you news of later when it updates. 

EDM0-96.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM0-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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44 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Of course 36C is not unusual?

Ridiculous post.

 

 

I’d say ridiculous is a bit harsh. You see it as 36oC. Some see it as 32/33/34oC. Which is what we had last month in the SE. A standard heatwave by the technical definition. Depends on what charts you look at and what your own interpretation is. Lots of potential though and looks odds on low 30’s for a few days. 

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Posted (edited)

ECM mean T120:

image.thumb.jpg.59f8b1acd5921dbfeae11a4524719473.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9b984c275f88c5bce696ac45bb4ff479.jpg

Given it is a mean chart, you might imagine the range of possibilities re the big heat as being the 18C contour rather the the 20C. T144:

image.thumb.jpg.f76fffe3cd0d5a995ae5810dc55b1672.jpg

But the 20C contour clipping the east suggests that this will hold on in the SE to T144.  UK temp record probability (my estimate!) unchanged at 10%, roll on the 0z runs...

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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2 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

I’d say ridiculous is a bit harsh. You see it as 36oC. Some see it as 32/33/34oC. Which is what we had last month in the SE. A standard heatwave by the technical definition. Depends on what charts you look at and what your own interpretation is. Lots of potential though and looks odds on low 30’s for a few days. 

Also you don’t just go by one ecm chart, looking at most models today they have backed away from extreme heat hence my post. It could of course change in the next couple of days. It’s still going to be hot we think 

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Looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean there's  certainly a hot spell next week further s / e / se where the main heat dome covers for several days but very warm in many other areas too..look, we've seen this week with lower uppers temps into the mid 20's celsius so it's not all about who has the highest 850's!!!!!👍

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51 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I would much prefer a protracted hot spell than just a couple of days, there's certainly a chance of stringing 4 or 5 hot days together next week (possibly longer), at least for the southeast going by some of the model runs today..fingers crossed!👍

I'd prefer  40 days of 23 degrees.. Hate the swings and downpours

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There must be a sizable cluster keeping the heat going on Thursday going by the ensembles. The extra day with 850s at 20C or above could be the difference between a potent and short lived affair or something that could be memorable for years to come.

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The ens pretty much in line with the extended. The mean coming in around 10c,with the pressure around 1015mb..it still remains very usable, and has we have seen recently.... 10c uppers can bring about mid 20s comfortably in sunshine. 

graphe_ens3 (1).png

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

There must be a sizable cluster keeping the heat going on Thursday going by the ensembles. The extra day with 850s at 20C or above could be the difference between a potent and short lived affair or something that could be memorable for years to come.

Captain, BBC RAW now has Gravesend Kent at 35 degrees wednesday with a feel like temp of 40 ... thats 105 F ..

wrt the mean, looks slightly more progressive than the det- not a great deal in it i wouldn't have thought.(out to 144)..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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Anyone got the temperature forecasts from the recent ecm for next week?!!!

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Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday

TUe.thumb.png.8f07610aaa5c7f87fa8ffb3c84ccbad7.pngWed.thumb.png.70d7f9bab2da9dd9a8d1a9b2bfce4cfc.pngThu.thumb.png.b8aa9dfce6aff0eb7cbd998a821f7b21.png

Cooler everywhere by Friday though the far east hanging onto high 20's/possibly 30c

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday

TUe.thumb.png.8f07610aaa5c7f87fa8ffb3c84ccbad7.pngWed.thumb.png.70d7f9bab2da9dd9a8d1a9b2bfce4cfc.pngThu.thumb.png.b8aa9dfce6aff0eb7cbd998a821f7b21.png

Cooler everywhere by Friday though the far east hanging onto high 20's/possibly 30c

Given the higher resolution arpege is showing 33C for Tuesday (ECM - 30C), it probably means the July record is under threat with the ECM showing 34C for the following two days. 100F and the all time high look like requiring a few things to go our way to fully max out the potential heat, so very unlikely.

Longer term, low pressure south of Iceland, high pressure possibly rebuilding from the south.

EDM1-144.GIF?19-0   EDM1-192.GIF?19-0   EDM1-240.GIF?19-0

I suspect July will turn out to be a good month overall, but very much dependent on how the following week goes as to how good it will be.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Extended ecm mean out to day 14 shows a mean of 7.7c,probably 60% of the members are above this though!! The mean pressure comes in at 1015.3....with the highest member being 1024.8 and the lowest member 1003.2.👍

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ICON 18z shoves core of heat E fairly quickly once again. 

I'm actually quite sad to be honest, was quite prepared to see a notable spell of heat and associated storms!

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ICON 18z shoves core of heat E fairly quickly once again. 

I'm actually quite sad to be honest, was quite prepared to see a notable spell of heat and associated storms!

It’s the ICON!

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