Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

As above folks... Didn't view the ukmo this morning, although I did hear horror stories.... These charts perhaps more of a fairytale story... Not bad at all. 

Ps... Excellent post has always from tams....

Edited July 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[knocker]

The difference between the latest gfs run and the midnight is relatively obvious. Tonight it has once again decide to amplify the subtropical high towards the high pressure in the Greenland/Iceland area thus becoming settled to a large extent, perhaps a few showers, over the UK with temps around average

Before that the low is over central England on Tuesday so a very wet before it the fulls and a ridge starts to move in

 

 

[northwestsnow]

An improved 12z from UKMO -

Certainly by 144 things settling down again..

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean there's a nice ridge building in from around next midweek and temps on the warm side to welcome August.

Edited July 27, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

Looking at some of the GEFS 12z members we might be flirting with serious continental heat again as we head further into august, there is plumey potential here and there and the mean shows warmer uppers (850's) very close to the south for most of the time!

Edited July 27, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

44 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at some of the GEFS 12z members we might be flirting with serious continental heat again as we head further into august, there is plumey potential here and there and the mean shows warmer uppers (850's) very close to the south for most of the time!

You are the plume master my friend, you spotted the last one very early... And perhaps your smelling the coffee againEcm at day 6....could we possibly get this low pressure in a favourable enough area to again pump up the heat from the south... Or am I still on cloud cuckoo land from the last one...

Edited July 27, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Ensembles are okay, too:

   

   

Let's hope that there's enough inertia there, for the NHP to hold steady until the mid-late September gales turn up?

[Man With Beard]

Right - back to looking ahead.

ECM tonight - as has the been the case for a few runs, a dodgy midweek coming up with a trough slow to move through the UK.

Once it clears we get to this interesting position:

Now most runs have pushed this Atlantic low sleepily through towards the UK, so a settled day or two before some sort of breakdown again. That's still the percentage forecast. 

But any chance that low gets stuck around ridging to its north/west/east, like at the end of June?? Looks a fairly well balanced pattern of ridging on all sides.

Low odds but keeping on eye on the situation.

[knocker]

Quite unsettled and wet week according to the ecm and then a col

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z operational shows decent warmish uppers for most of the run and the surface conditions would be feeling warm and even humid for a while, the pressure field looks very slack so changes are slow throughout. There's a showery trough over the uk which brings sunshine and heavy, thundery showers but the trough slowly fills in-situ and the remnants drift away eastwards  and high pressure to the NW extends a ridge SE into the uk so the showers risk decreases later next week with increasing amounts of fine and hopefully sunny weather but we probably can't rule out a risk of a few showers developing, towards the end another showery disturbance moves in from the southwest so pressure falls a bit and the end of the run introduces cooler uppers from the NE.

Edited July 27, 2019 by Jon Snow

[thestixx]

Can't believe how slack the pattern is on this at day 10, I've never seen such a benign chart.

[knocker]

Generally the four day projection of the mean EPS anomaly isn't too bad but the major failing is in over emphasizing the trough in the eastern Atlantic with the subsequent brisk westerly upper flow across the UK. Currently the European trough is still very much in play with a large area of high pressure and positive anomalies to the north west of the UK covering much of Greenland/Iceland and a large area of the Atlantic.Thus with the 200mb wind field indicating the weak westerly jet running south of the UK the latter is in a very slack pattern with nothing particularly untoward lurking in the woodshed.The det runs need to sort the detail but this portends a sunshine and showers routine with temps around average or a touch above. NOAA is not adverse to this

In the ext period the EPS does amplify the Atlantic to some extent with ridging into Greenland and the trough, via the Arctic developed over the UK and a weak W/NW upper flow over the latter. This would suggest a period of more unsettled weather with temps around average,perhaps a tad below NOAA is not so bold with the amplification and thus more settled. Given the inertia in the pattern in our neck of the woods, and this disagreement, I would imagine the detail will take a bit of sorting

Edited July 28, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's gfs det run in the same ball park

[knocker]

The frontal reain will persist today but over the next 36 hours or so should gradual ease and shift as the front drifts slowly north

But as can be seen the low has arrived by midnight Tuesday and rain will spread north east courtesy of the associated occlusion. Over te next couple of days the low will track into the North Sea and fill giving a showery, sunny intervals  couple of days.

And then we are entering the period that has been discussed above

 

 

[knocker]

A sat image worth a thousand words

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

A sat image worth a thousand words

I can report its bucketing down here Knocker !

Anyway, onto the models , UKMO pick of the bunch for me this morning , drying out somewhat by Thur/Fri...

[Summer Sun]

The next week remains around or a bit above average temp wise ranging from the upper teens to low 20s.

Week 2 maybe turning cooler in the north with Scotland especially down to the low teens

Pretty wet over the next 2 weeks with above average rain widely

[Methuselah]

GEFS 00Z ensembles seem extroardinarily flat, to me, and have very little scatter -- at least temperature-wise?

   

   

I guess I'm nae the only one who's just had 12-hours' uninterrupted sleep!

[Frosty.]

Again there's some plume potential within the GEFS 0z, especially around 8th / 9th August...one to watch!!

Edited July 28, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Again there's some plume potential within the GEFS 0z, especially around 8th / 9th August...one to watch!!

Plume potential also evident through the 06Z, Karl; but, perhaps less convincing, as the colder cack, up to the North, looks to exert a tad more influence than it has done, of late?

   

Will the op turn out to be all on its lonesome, though?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Terrible day here guys... Totally deflated... I have post match, pre match, call it whatever you like summertime blues. Just looking at the extended ecm mean out to the 12th August shows pressure around 1009mb during the first week, with a slight increase during the 2nd week.... 1013mb on average. The mean tends to straddle the 8-10c, so it remains on the warm side. It still looks to me that there is no dominant pattern in play here. So on that basis I would call a most likely NW/SE split In conditions.... Further plumes a possibility, but not really possible to call on the extended mean. Perhaps August will throw a little of everything at us... I don't see a June repeat, on the other hand I'm not seeing a repeat of June last year... All to play for is a good shout. 

Edited July 28, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Methuselah]

Today's GEFS 06Z ensembles don't resolve anything either, @Mattwolves...Growing uncertainty later, too?

   

   

[knocker]

1245 UTC sat image and 300 UK chart

[Tim Bland]

25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Today's GEFS 06Z ensembles don't resolve anything either, @Mattwolves...Growing uncertainty later, too?

   

   

Looks very average with temps 18-24c and showers at times. Not that much uncertainty really

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks very average with temps 18-24c and showers at times. Not that much uncertainty really

Take at mean value, yes. However, I think @Ed Stone was referring to the increased amount of FI scatter compared to recent GEFS. In which case I agree - it is uncertain later on - perhaps some emerging trends to come?