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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Morning runs show a mixed bag. A wet weekend for many (bar the far SW) then drier, brighter and warmer on Monday before turning unsettled Tues-Thurs. End of the working week and into the weekend pressure builds as the low drifts west, so we should see sunnier and warmer weather for a few days. Beyond that is a lifetime away. 

Edited by danm
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Here are this morning's GEFS 00Zs...not bad and not great?:oldgrin:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

But, given that however August turns out, it'll be compared to last week, it has little chance being judged as anything but a 'washout'...:unsure2:

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Starting to look like another poor August is shaping up - literally nothing in any output at the moment to say that the first couple of weeks won’t be pants. All of this thanks to the heatwave. Price to pay and all that...

eh?... how is the heatwave responsible for a poor august?.. the demise of it will, is doing, as pretty common resulted in a few miserable days before the pattern emerges that will see us into august. the heatwave didnt cause that pattern.. the expected low pressure domination. the heatwave was a result of the synoptic pattern, the heatwave didnt cause the synoptic pattern.

however it is looking ominous that august yet again will be poor..  if these predictions are accurate, then its a long way off from and high pressure domination.

poor.thumb.gif.20e255d7fe018b7e9d5176ba5aceb8ea.gifpoor2.thumb.gif.60ab1633ac66972ba9f4e5fea5845f3e.gif

Edited by mushymanrob
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Looks like the heaviest rain will be a bit further east than some models were showing on yesterdays 12z already had torrential rain here in Darlington and more is on the way looking at the radar and WRF/GFS

precip_d02_8.thumb.png.8a0cfb5ce88949354f737e9d4b1eb0a4.pngprecip_d02_10.thumb.png.71cf7ac06283558803e40dd0b0d3ba47.pngprecip_d02_12.thumb.png.3fb519d25302ee351cc4bcb963031ce7.png

precip_d02_14.thumb.png.b1af247a4a7322d799eb7f4971bdce6c.pngprecip_d02_16.thumb.png.51624138d2455f52e03c81a8e7260e53.png

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like the heaviest rain will be a bit further east than some models were showing on yesterdays 12z already had torrential rain here in Darlington and more is on the way looking at the radar and WRF/GFS

precip_d02_8.thumb.png.8a0cfb5ce88949354f737e9d4b1eb0a4.pngprecip_d02_10.thumb.png.71cf7ac06283558803e40dd0b0d3ba47.pngprecip_d02_12.thumb.png.3fb519d25302ee351cc4bcb963031ce7.png

precip_d02_14.thumb.png.b1af247a4a7322d799eb7f4971bdce6c.pngprecip_d02_16.thumb.png.51624138d2455f52e03c81a8e7260e53.png

Good spot Gavin...

Thankfully for my location , the models have shifted the bulk of the rain further NE..

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6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

eh?... how is the heatwave responsible for a poor august?.. the demise of it will, is doing, as pretty common resulted in a few miserable days before the pattern emerges that will see us into august. the heatwave didnt cause that pattern.. the expected low pressure domination. the heatwave was a result of the synoptic pattern, the heatwave didnt cause the synoptic pattern.

however it is looking ominous that august yet again will be poor..  if these predictions are accurate, then its a long way off from and high pressure domination.

poor.thumb.gif.20e255d7fe018b7e9d5176ba5aceb8ea.gifpoor2.thumb.gif.60ab1633ac66972ba9f4e5fea5845f3e.gif

Follow the charts through and look where all the heat from last week ends up - into the Arctic circle which has blown up another Greenland high and forced the jet south again.

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A word on current synoptics - a cold snow lovers dream if this was Dec-March, a slow moving front stalling over some parts with cold air aloft and on its rear with northern blocking.. alas its July. Some places would be experiencing a very long lasting heavy snowfall - rare to see such synoptics Nov-Feb especially, perhaps less so March, but much more so come the spring-summer months.

It has been a marked major switcharound - in two days, quite a classic one, from severe heat to quite cool conditions.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Follow the charts through and look where all the heat from last week ends up - into the Arctic circle which has blown up another Greenland high and forced the jet south again.

its the high pressure that caused the heat thats migrated up there. the high pressure caused the heat, the heat didnt cause the high pressure.. nit picking i know, but it was the behaviour of the high pressure thats resulted in a strong northern block.

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It’s an unusual setup at the moment but even more unusual if it were March given how Atlantic dominated the month is. Perhaps more expected in mid Jan - Feb when Atlantic fronts come up against a big block.

This slack pattern looks set to continue to months end at least with perhaps some convective potential early-mid next week depending on how much clag is left over.

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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Good spot Gavin...

Thankfully for my location , the models have shifted the bulk of the rain further NE..

I was just thinking the opposite, further west than forecast, was meant to be only east coast, SE all the way up to E Scotland, but instead it's covering most of Wales

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19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I was just thinking the opposite, further west than forecast, was meant to be only east coast, SE all the way up to E Scotland, but instead it's covering most of Wales

Well its throwing it down here now so yes, i think you are right 🙂

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A kinda different-looking outlook, from today's GFS 06Z...Will it 'deliver'? Who knows?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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31 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A kinda different-looking outlook, from today's GFS 06Z...Will it 'deliver'? Who knows?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Hmmm me like😁!!those blues are already getting there act together north of us😈!!cant wait!

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Going from the GEFS 06Z ensembles, the operational is going off on its own...

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Whatever, I guess time is fast running out, for all those who 'predicted' a summer just like 2012!:oldgrin:

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Can't mind anything in the tropical teleconnections to suggest that HLB will necessarily force a mainly poor weather pattern for 1st half of August. Not a lot pointing the other way either, but ore than there is toward the cool and unsettled outcome. I suspect the models are, yet again this summer, showing bias toward Nina-like behaviour during times of weak forcing with a 'gentle' Nino standing wave competing against others of similar strength.


For now, I'm focusing on the shorter-term. The LP incoming for Tue is very interesting in that it behaves more like a tropical cyclone than our usual systems. It's so compact - perhaps it will have some degree of warm core? Making it partially tropical. Could bring some lively downpours if so.

image.thumb.png.25501b5a53628aefbe28d612f05f41b3.png

 

Then we get to the question of 'where will it park up' as the westerlies capitulate (yet again!) and it comes down to the phasing of various lows within troughs to dictate the location of near-static ridges and troughs. This time it comes down to a couple of lows out in the N. Atlantic; if they merge, they amplify the trough-ridge combination with the ridge being across the UK, meaning the LP over us is eased out to the east. If those lows stay apart, that push to the pattern doesn't materialise, and we wait for the low to gradually fill in-situ. At least it's a 'warm' low; temps still look to do pretty well in sunnier breaks, reaching near or above the LTA for many parts (provided you apply a +1 or 2*C bias adjustment (a matter of judgement) to the GFS/FV3 raw output).

It's that kind of setup where if you have time off, you have to keep a close track of things and plan around short-range developments. Can be frustrating, but hey, it's the British summer!

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Looks like the heaviest rain will be a bit further east than some models were showing on yesterdays 12z already had torrential rain here in Darlington and more is on the way looking at the radar and WRF/GFS

precip_d02_8.thumb.png.8a0cfb5ce88949354f737e9d4b1eb0a4.pngprecip_d02_10.thumb.png.71cf7ac06283558803e40dd0b0d3ba47.pngprecip_d02_12.thumb.png.3fb519d25302ee351cc4bcb963031ce7.png

precip_d02_14.thumb.png.b1af247a4a7322d799eb7f4971bdce6c.pngprecip_d02_16.thumb.png.51624138d2455f52e03c81a8e7260e53.png

those models seem miles out, it's way further west than that

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5 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Tuesday looks like the next bout of interest, convective wise. Could be one of them classic days with CB’s going up like popcorn from the word go, circling round the country under quite slack winds and giving some half decent storms in places. A setup that has often seen funnel clouds produced in the past too. 

Yes and a pattern that featured prominently around the turn of the decade 2007-2012. 

It just feels like we've gone back to that period weatherwise- the expansive -AO and at times -NAO this summer adding weight to that thought.

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1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Can't mind anything in the tropical teleconnections to suggest that HLB will necessarily force a mainly poor weather pattern for 1st half of August. Not a lot pointing the other way either, but ore than there is toward the cool and unsettled outcome. I suspect the models are, yet again this summer, showing bias toward Nina-like behaviour during times of weak forcing with a 'gentle' Nino standing wave competing against others of similar strength.


For now, I'm focusing on the shorter-term. The LP incoming for Tue is very interesting in that it behaves more like a tropical cyclone than our usual systems. It's so compact - perhaps it will have some degree of warm core? Making it partially tropical. Could bring some lively downpours if so.

image.thumb.png.25501b5a53628aefbe28d612f05f41b3.png

 

Then we get to the question of 'where will it park up' as the westerlies capitulate (yet again!) and it comes down to the phasing of various lows within troughs to dictate the location of near-static ridges and troughs. This time it comes down to a couple of lows out in the N. Atlantic; if they merge, they amplify the trough-ridge combination with the ridge being across the UK, meaning the LP over us is eased out to the east. If those lows stay apart, that push to the pattern doesn't materialise, and we wait for the low to gradually fill in-situ. At least it's a 'warm' low; temps still look to do pretty well in sunnier breaks, reaching near or above the LTA for many parts (provided you apply a +1 or 2*C bias adjustment (a matter of judgement) to the GFS/FV3 raw output).

It's that kind of setup where if you have time off, you have to keep a close track of things and plan around short-range developments. Can be frustrating, but hey, it's the British summer!

A very interesting LP indeed with strong to gale force winds too for the NW of France, SW England and the Channel Islands 👍

Edited by Fitzwis
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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

those models seem miles out, it's way further west than that

It is riduclously further west than the model posted above!!cant believe how wrong that wrf model is at such short short notice!!ecm was bang on the money at the moment!!

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The GFS 12Z doesn't appear to portend a disastrous start to August:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The GFS 12Z doesn't appear to portend a disastrous start to August:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

 

And neither does the UKMO:

0BF5145D-3FCD-48C6-8739-F03A9EB18042.thumb.png.002ec70b325c4cf541efb7e979eb95ed.png

7BC66C53-019A-4C09-8C08-F7AC1C591E5C.thumb.png.122925b01c21d4bed58be5b3a704809b.png

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GFS looking good post Wednesday, plenty of fine weather next weekend:

5F143437-6D16-40B7-9DDD-3D2A2A873D20.thumb.png.2f37e728ede93b9fc30afd72f8a58029.png

9AABA253-DCBC-4F6B-BEDE-75C3370D5E6A.thumb.png.a157028e6799d570d6c226fdcc68b852.png

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