Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Mike Poole]

So ECM 12z has the low at T120 moving away and leaving us in an improving picture at T144, from there is uncertainty, but isn't there always?

 

[knocker]

The ecm's take on the tight little low next week

[Frosty.]

I'm not going to lie, the longer term GEFS 12z mean is not good but there is one member which builds the azores high NE across the uk...lol. I remain hopeful about August and certainly won't be throwing in the towel anytime soon based on 1 run!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

 

Edited July 26, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ties in with FAX charts matt, but still expecting washout 2 days here,

Your in the prime spot mate, not so sure of how far West its lying though. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I'm not going to lie, the longer term GEFS 12z mean is not good but there are at least a few members which build the azores high NE across the uk.. I remain hopeful about August and certainly won't be throwing in the towel anytime soon!!!!!!!

I would be surprised if you did mate, cause it doesn't even start till next Thursday.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I would be surprised if you did mate, cause it doesn't even start till next Thursday.

Post heatwave blues mate, anyway, there are some warmer signs in the mid range and higher pressure indicated for later next week (nice ridge on GFS 12z operational) which would be good news for the ashes first test..as long as we learn how to bat!!!!!

Edited July 26, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mapantz]

NetWx SR and UKV are pretty close in terms of rainfall distribution. 

 

From one extreme to the another!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Your in the prime spot mate, not so sure of how far West its lying though. 

GFS though seem way out, watch this move SW on next few runs

[cheeky_monkey]

38 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Post heatwave blues mate, anyway, there are some warmer signs in the mid range and higher pressure indicated for later next week (nice ridge on GFS 12z operational) which would be good news for the ashes first test..as long as we learn how to bat!!!!!

blimey first ashes test is a bit late in the year? anyway im back in the UK Aug 19 - Sep 2 so hoping for sunny and average conditions no 40c please 

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening ! Southern Britain. looks to be in for a soaking at some point early next week...Thanks to an extropical storm!

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening ! Southern Britain. looks to be in for a soaking at some point early next week...Thanks to an extropical storm!

Rain , oh I was going to type something but stopped.  

UKMO T120 has the high pressure pushing in again.  What was your point, actually?

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean isn't all bad, there is some ridging, albeit weak ridging indicated across southern uk later next week so at least a window of more pleasant weather, mainly further south.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Tonight's extended ecm mean out to day 14 shows a mean of between 8-9c. The sea level pressure is around 1012mb, but a little caution this evening there are quite a number of runs taking it below this figure, more than 50%. 

[damianslaw]

Peak high summer right now - a time when I least post in here for various reasons. Alas, a short look at the models, and it looks rather changeable as we end July and enter August - heights building strongly to the north, slow moving trough underneath means some places could receive alot of rain over the next few days, and temperatures will be very near average. Its turning into a summer with notable bursts of heat but nothing sustained. 

An ode to late July / early August - all is in deep slumber, even the birds go into quiet mode, as we await the reawakening come mid August and stir slowly.. (lets just move forward to September..).

Edited July 26, 2019 by damianslaw

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Yes defo got heatwave blues me. But I still here looking for next warm spell. At least I can finish the garden without sweating like a waterfall lol. Roll on the 6z

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

blimey first ashes test is a bit late in the year? anyway im back in the UK Aug 19 - Sep 2 so hoping for sunny and average conditions no 40c please 

Its all to do with the one day world Cup we only just manage to win. LOL

[matty007]

1 hour ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Yes defo got heatwave blues me. But I still here looking for next warm spell. At least I can finish the garden without sweating like a waterfall lol. Roll on the 6z

Yes indeed. The feeling of emptiness and mediocrity after a heatwave is horrible. 

That's why i loved last year so much, it was pretty much a constant heatwave. Nothing as extreme as we just had, but very settled and long term warm/hot weather. 

[knocker]

Outlook - Over the weekend the stalled front along eastern regions of the UK will return slowly south west as a warm front and pulses of moderate/heavy rain will run along it. Thus the precise orientation of the front is key to rainfall amounts which may well be quite significant in areas that remain  within it's influence for any length of time

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight (note the forming wave 1015mb away to the WSW is Monday's low)

Currently the rain belt(s) are running NW > SE down the spine of the country with the south west, northeast Scotland and. Ireland relatively dry. Through the day as the front waves and moves SW the rain will slowly become confined to an area SW Scotland to NE England. A warm and quite pleasant day in areas that are not under the umbrella of the front

The front and rain belt move a tad further south west during this evening and overnight

And through Sunday the front still hasn't moved very far and this is reflected in the temp spread But as can be seen the wave mentioned earlier is now approaching from the south west

Over Sunday night and through Monday the low continues to track NE and by midday is west of Brest with the associated occlusion bringing rain into Cornwall.which will spread west during the day

A bit tricky over Tuesday and Weds as the gfs and Exeter do not agree on the track of the now filling low. So sticking with the latter the low moves east via the Channel Islands to NE France with showery, perhaps thundery rain, effecting the southern half of Britain, courtesy of the bent back occlusion, Still some showers lingering in the south on Weds and on both days further north should be dry with a fair amount of sunshine

 

Edited July 27, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

For the latter part of next week the gfs has a familiar picture with high pressure migrating west to the Greenland/Iceland area whilst the TPV continues to dominate Europe. With low pressure in the Atlantic and the weak jet running a fair way south the detail is going to be tricky Temp around average

[northwestsnow]

UKMO reverts back to the idea of Low pressure completely in control next week - yuk!

GFS better but looking at the precip charts its hardly dry for much of the UK.

In short, its not looking too clever for the next week to 10 days.

[knocker]

The ecm's take on the track of the low next week is not dissimilar to the gfs

[mb018538]

Starting to look like another poor August is shaping up - literally nothing in any output at the moment to say that the first couple of weeks won’t be pants. All of this thanks to the heatwave. Price to pay and all that...

[knocker]

And the sun shines on Sidney

 

[Captain Shortwave]

If there are not too many fronts under this pattern, then conditions won’t be too bad. I suspect the convective threads might be kept busy with low heights, but with some fairly warm and humid air in the mix.

Edited July 27, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

If there are not too many fronts under this pattern, then conditions won’t be too bad. I suspect the convective threads might be kept busy with low heights, but with some fairly warm and humid air in the mix.

Tuesday looks like the next bout of interest, convective wise. Could be one of them classic days with CB’s going up like popcorn from the word go, circling round the country under quite slack winds and giving some half decent storms in places. A setup that has often seen funnel clouds produced in the past too.