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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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Posted (edited)

There's still some absolutely scorching GEFS 12z members next week, even by next friday!!!👍🔥

3_174_850tmp.thumb.png.11998de7eaf2e78a349c6f77a666eaa8.png3_174_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.162a9eb82fa65ab0fac61c816696c07b.png11_150_850tmp.thumb.png.f75ec0e68e5ab33f2b9d9e93b5c924d7.png11_150_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.727e1ef680560caa9ac0192620cf30db.png12_150_850tmp.thumb.png.57c5168665bc62eea9dadab5b67b8aa3.png12_150_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.fc1216e14ce5b3fa5d2e4053359e3fde.png14_150_850tmp.thumb.png.936fe68e0734f6d049d840631eaa0158.png14_150_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.090590fc5fe802f835cde2fc5ee8d601.png16_150_850tmp.thumb.png.ac4dc93a9e3bc730d6191ee83d131911.png16_150_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.cbcc606c803ae91853e6d785cd520024.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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The Ops run is about 60% of the way down the Ensemble pack in the speed in which it clears the bulk of the heat through. Max 850's also also a tad lower, in fact almost all the members peak higher than the Ops run. Feels like Monday-Wednesday are in the bank and Thursday is pretty much there for another hot day across the south east Lyme Bay to the Wash (at least). 

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Early next week is now coming into range of the Aperge.

arpegeuk-31-114-0.png

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Posted (edited)

So in the shorter range, general maxima.

Monday - 29c towards Humberside (possible fohn effect).

Tuesday - 33c across NW London northwards along the A1/M1 corridor as far as the East Midlands.

This taken from the Arpege which usually performs well.

Regardless of when the breakdown happens, the following Atlantic flow doesn’t look overly unsettled and temperatures remain above average.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Early next week is now coming into range of the Aperge.

arpegeuk-31-114-0.png

Note that's the max. between 8pm Tuesday and 8am Wednesday, so presumably those high temps are from Tuesday evening. Will be interesting to see what it says for the daytime of Weds.

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Although the GEFS 12z mean has shifted slightly further east compared to the 6z, away from the far NW it's still heatwave temperatures for much of next week, especially further s / se...a slight adjustment back west would be very helpful to our members further to the N / NW!!!!!!👍

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1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

some big totals in there..looks like a lots of low pressure barreling across the northern half of the UK and off into Scandinavia 

Yes cm, some really big totals around the NW. I only hope its not the way August pans out. 

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14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just to take a look at potential precipitation amounts in the coming month with the EC46... Obviously subject to major variation... But mainly just a way of spotting any trends. 

Very surprised that output is publicly available Matt.

But it doesn't really matter, the ECM 46 was utterly woeful last winter despite some on here lauding it to the rafters until the major cold period failed to appear, so I'm happy to ignore it!

With ECM still to come, probabilities for the UK record going next week - reduced as most of the 12z shifts the heat east more quickly, still some members of the GEFS have the direct hit, but at closer range the higher resolution of the ops should prevail, overall I'd put probability now at 8%.

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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Don’t mention 40, it gets folk hot under the collar! Fully expect mid 30s in SE from the 12z GFS.

 

 

How long will it be before we start saying I spy a 40c in the South east?!

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B656D06A-0FE8-4849-97B6-53F12FAA0E49.thumb.png.34d6e961d7c9842030ffda09c7fbf772.png

ECM is up and running. 

Lovely and warm Tuesday. 

Pools coming out in the back garden Tuesday and Wednesday, kids love it 👍

Camping in Cornwall next Sunday for 7 days. Weather, 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️ no idea yet. 

 

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ECM is scorchio by Wednesday still....35c surely on the cards? We’re 3 weeks further down the line from June and should be in the peak window of heat - last third of July and first third of August for me.

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Just a quick mention about the cfs 6z, it becomes anticyclonic during august, especially mid month!👍

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ECM further west than UKMO at T120:

image.thumb.jpg.863124aed3d1d8df98a0f7875e20e521.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3fc10808a3d4db9a7ff21a10cb92ae7d.jpg

My record probability up to 10%.

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The 12Z GEFS ensembles have some real stonkers among them:

850t-096.pngt2mLondon.png

t2mLondon.png prmslLondon.png

prcpLondon.png Maybe not as intense as the 06Zs, but a spiffing spell of weather nonetheless!:yahoo:

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ECM keeps the heat going into Thursday, particularly across the south eastern quarter.

ECM0-144_ope3.GIF

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Heat just clinging on in E/SE England by Friday on the ecm, turning fresher from the west as low pressure starts to influence things.

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I’d say a normal 3 day heatwave on the way nothing unusual 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I must say that the GFS 12Z NH profile @T+384 looks almost too benign to be true...?

npsh500mean-384.png

I think most means are like that by FI. Huge scatter means any big low or high pressures on individual runs are lost to background signal.

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What a fantastic ecm!!better than the morning run and also better than the gfs 12z and ukmo!!heat continues till the end of the week on this run!!scorchio!

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Ecm has 24 uppers across Kent, given the 2 previous days will have already been hot/ mainly sunny here... providing limited cloud cover on Thursday, surely the record is ever closer to being smashed.

udjddj.png

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Posted (edited)

Amazing stuff, just when you think the trend is further east, the ecm 12z slams on the brakes and reverses a bit..heat for many..even the NW for a time at least!!!!!!!👍🔥

72_thickuk.thumb.png.70e57dafa5fc8335153bc999bb5f0a7a.png96_thickuk.thumb.png.3da45d8da1645073414bcb634bfd20e6.png96_mslp850.thumb.png.966958b074b16179cf6455a589db4cab.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.9d7fe5540dee60695f5e2f2871256708.png120_mslp850.thumb.png.541037f9acb58deddf7305f46439b419.png144_thickuk.thumb.png.f38a49f7d8b66955264bba582ebc55d8.png144_mslp850.thumb.png.e76bda67647c429589d2200da9dc7fa1.png168_thickuk.thumb.png.7e3099220e4bef721f6fe379f45d1f16.png168_mslp850.thumb.png.d016e997d6cd2a531040d5efb0f39162.png168_thick.thumb.png.061b89890d263503fd369024cf76237b.png

Edited by Jon Snow

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Chris Fawkes on the extended outlook has mentioned the cut off low and extended heat isn’t out of the equation yet - it’s still showing in the ensembles as a less likely option, but until it disappears completely it’s still an option. There are still nearly half of the gfs members going for this on the 12z, far from a done deal yet.

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3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Chris Fawkes on the extended outlook has mentioned the cut off low and extended heat isn’t out of the equation yet - it’s still showing in the ensembles as a less likely option, but until it disappears completely it’s still an option. There are still nearly half of the gfs members going for this on the 12z, far from a done deal yet.

Yes very good post. People saying just a 3 day heatwave. It's not over yet far from it. Let's see where we are Saturday evening. I no 6z gfs fv is now history but I wouldn't right anything similar to that off yet. Let just see. 

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