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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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7 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

EC46 looking positive tonight for August... Positive sea pressure anomalies, temps remain on the warm side where I feel continental influence may have some influence at times... Didn't see any dramatic pressure falls throughout the month ahead... Long way off and subject to change, but good signs all the same. 

Shades of 2003? 

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Decent GFS this morning with plenty of usable weather post weekend.

Awful UKMO persisting with the low to the SW getting stuck right over the UK, yuk!

GEM follows GFS, ICON gone all UKMO..

Really do not want EC to follow UKMO this morning as i'm off work next week.. 😞

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Continuing briefly with the gfs, The pattern in the 5-10 period is similar to last evening as the new upper low continues to track esst and is absorbed by the TPV resulting in Europe being dominated by the trough  This allows the subtropical high to ridge briefly towards the now established high cell to the north, whilst isolating the upper low in the Atlantic. Ergo perhaps a dry few days with fronts edging into the NW by the weekend.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4963200.thumb.png.a03453ac7e427a77dc55c708ee1c08e7.pngsun.thumb.png.26c7f5d273481f819ed94e8f6273825c.pngth.thumb.png.7057060ae59f077ebeccdf9b7e58fe7e.png

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Posted (edited)

Just out of interest, or not of course, the 850mb temps at Torshavn and Lerwick were 14.0C and 18.5C with some medium level instability at the latter

2019072600.03005.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.1b57280fa32d73981207260656bc8944.gif2019072600.06011.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.89b55dea5ce20a37c22835a12700d68f.gif

And the ecm is in the same ball park as gfs next week

ecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-4617600.thumb.png.6ddb47b8c3e5516d080e481a2cdd9565.pngecmwf-natl_wide-z500_anom-4704000.thumb.png.86eb1d45744dad614f47b2392d33071c.png

Edited by knocker

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Phew!! EC siding with GFS ...

Hope UKMO changes direction later..

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Morning all...here are the GEFS 00Z ensembles. Is that a suggested warm-up, I see?:oldgrin:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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Posted (edited)

The UKMO probably quite wet, but also pretty warm and humid with 850s of 8-10c.

GFS and ECM offering a lot of fine weather for next week under fairly high heights. Still probably the risk of a few showers and there is likely to be some rain in the south Monday night into Tuesday.

looking at week 2, too early to call in regards to seeing a return to more typical westerlies with the blocking waning.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Morning all 🙂

Not quite sure what others are seeing but 00Z ECM fairly uninspiring in the short term. 

ECM1-48.GIF?26-12

That wouldn't be a pleasant summer's day but very welcome rain for the south and east.

The question for next week is whether the LP will retreat far enough west to allow a brief Azores HP ridge to nose in from the SW.

ECM1-168.GIF?26-12

Well, yes. but ECM suggests it's only a transient feature with the Atlantic re-asserting into the following week.

UKM this morning isn't pleasant for those wanting settled and fine conditions.

GFS 00Z OP follows ECM at the end of next week:

gfs-0-174.png

Eventually, as with ECM, the ridge collapses and the trough moves back in and it's a typical disappointing August.

My summation, a much more unsettled and wet spell coming up over the next 3-4 days with some welcome rain for many, From the middle of next week, however, signs of a ridge from the SW leading to more settled conditions especially in the south but more widely by the weekend and a 4-5 day decent spell, nowhere near as hot as it has been but certainly pleasantly warm. Thereafter, clear signs for the ridge to collapse and a more unsettled spell moving fully into August with a much stronger Atlantic influence.

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Some parts of the UK will see temperatures go from the low 30s yesterday to the low teens tomorrow a huge drop in 48-hours and a welcome relief for many with a much fresher feel

Yesterday

tx_uk.thumb.png.1def1160cd142f92f216fea05840b5ae.png

Tomorrow

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f9df5cf171df5176230090b032995d7b.png

The warm spot could be northern Scotland with the mid 20s still possible closely followed by parts of the south coast

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some parts of the UK will see temperatures go from the low 30s yesterday to the low teens tomorrow a huge drop in 48-hours and a welcome relief for many with a much fresher feel

Yesterday

tx_uk.thumb.png.1def1160cd142f92f216fea05840b5ae.png

Tomorrow

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f9df5cf171df5176230090b032995d7b.png

The warm spot could be northern Scotland with the mid 20s still possible closely followed by parts of the south coast

Low teens tomorrow I think that chart has a fault no way will it not be plus 20 in England in places.

temp.png

Edited by NTC

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11 minutes ago, NTC said:

Low teens tomorrow I think that chart has a fault no way will it not be plus 20 in England in places.

temp.png

It all depends where the rain band is. The chart SS posted has it further southwest than the BBC map, hence the lower temperatures in that area. Plus, it does have plenty of 20c's in other parts of England. 

This is the UKV take on it at 4pm tomorrow - different again, owing to the difficultly in placing the weather front bringing the rain. 

ukvrain.png ukvtemp.png

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Posted (edited)

UKMO is different to GFS and still has some warmth locally with; 

Low 20s in northern Scotland 

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019072600_39_7267_1.thumb.png.c85804b9be6d290b2bac781fae01a65f.png

The low to mid 20s in the East of England

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019072600_39_7523_1.thumb.png.5fe9058b152bbe1d1e29b5361d1d545e.png

But fresher where rain/cloud is

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019072600_39_7434_1.thumb.png.0dbb990d048d8fe522d4dc2bb4d17720.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO is different to GFS and still has some warmth locally with; 

Low 20s in northern Scotland 

 

The low to mid 20s in the East of England

 

But fresher where rain/cloud is

 

Is this because the GFS is underdoing temperatures?  It had the temps nowhere near what they reached yesterday in the run up to it on most runs, where as  the Arpege (i think) and UKV over did them with even a 41 thrown in by one run.

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Can someone just explain how the models are produced is it literally a computer generated process or is there any human intervention for example if I had been putting the models together and seen a 41c I might have manually adjusted it to not look foolish but I assume these days its all just what the computer churns out?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is this because the GFS is underdoing temperatures?  It had the temps nowhere near what they reached yesterday in the run up to it on most runs, where as  the Arpege (i think) and UKV over did them with even a 41 thrown in by one run.

They're all showing tomorrows rain in different places which is where where are seeing variations in the temps so much anyone stuck under the persistent rain tomorrow will see temps struggling but where you avoid the rain it will still be quite muggy with temps in the low to mid 20s

Edited by Summer Sun

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There are hints from the GEFS 0z mean of another continental incursion at the start of august, nothing like we've just seen but potentially very warm and humid with thunderstorm potential, at least for the south.

21_186_850tmp.thumb.png.2e73cea8e16ee647c133d9e3801a72f8.png21_210_850tmp.thumb.png.810095d2453bdd492c119107f50a37c3.png

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33 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

They're all showing tomorrows rain in different places which is where where are seeing variations in the temps so much anyone stuck under the persistent rain tomorrow will see temps struggling but where you avoid the rain it will still be quite muggy with temps in the low to mid 20s

Yes, think western side of the rain will be cold, Eastern side will be hot still.

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Posted (edited)

UKMO this morning sees that little low over southern England on Tuesday stick around and squat over the UK (albeit the run only goes out to Thursday). 

GFS and ECM on the other hand see that low scoot off relatively quickly with pressure building over southern and eastern areas at first and then further north. 

UKMO on Thursday:

716A1729-9D4F-4778-AA84-AFC07C767114.thumb.png.95cf0587267e1b079f62da086ec91894.png

 

ECM on Thursday:

323C3525-F896-49A9-96EA-25EC50A00571.thumb.png.641595bd173e0e68a5559c8b2edcae1d.png

 

GFS on Thursday:

608CDDC8-2BE1-47EC-9305-1431B8191383.thumb.png.75fe513f152e476c28e6b7fbf325b43a.png

Edited by danm

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, stodge said:

Morning all 🙂

Not quite sure what others are seeing but 00Z ECM fairly uninspiring in the short term. 

ECM1-48.GIF?26-12

That wouldn't be a pleasant summer's day but very welcome rain for the south and east.

The question for next week is whether the LP will retreat far enough west to allow a brief Azores HP ridge to nose in from the SW.

ECM1-168.GIF?26-12

Well, yes. but ECM suggests it's only a transient feature with the Atlantic re-asserting into the following week.

UKM this morning isn't pleasant for those wanting settled and fine conditions.

GFS 00Z OP follows ECM at the end of next week:

gfs-0-174.png

Eventually, as with ECM, the ridge collapses and the trough moves back in and it's a typical disappointing August.

My summation, a much more unsettled and wet spell coming up over the next 3-4 days with some welcome rain for many, From the middle of next week, however, signs of a ridge from the SW leading to more settled conditions especially in the south but more widely by the weekend and a 4-5 day decent spell, nowhere near as hot as it has been but certainly pleasantly warm. Thereafter, clear signs for the ridge to collapse and a more unsettled spell moving fully into August with a much stronger Atlantic influence.

What I'm seeing from the 0z ensemble data out to August 9th is a decent enough mean... 8-9c...with sea level pressure around 1014mb and again a fair few runs that go above this... Clearly we could again  use the phrase of no clear signals or any 1 weather type being dominant... But personally I feel its quite decent moving into the new month I'm certainly seeing no signs of a rampant Atlantic. 

Edited by Mattwolves

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EC would round off a very respectable July to counter the hapless June..

Perhaps a tad previous but subtle signs the 1st week in August might see things going downhill with a signal for Greeny heights and southerly tracking trough(s)..

 

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Well, at T+162, the 06Z is looking okay:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Things'll certainly feel much better than they do now!:yahoo:

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, at T+162, the 06Z is looking okay:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Things'll certainly feel much better than they do now!:yahoo:

Yes Pete, high pressure building somewhat from the S/SW.. And it looks quite a bit warmer in the SE by this stage perhaps high 20s...from this point on perhaps more of a NW/SE split shaping up towards mid month... Lot of water to flow under the bridge though just yet.. I'm still hopeful we are about to buck the trend of dire Augusts though. 

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes Pete, high pressure building somewhat from the S/SW.. And it looks quite a bit warmer in the SE by this stage perhaps high 20s...from this point on perhaps more of a NW/SE split shaping up towards mid month... Lot of water to flow under the bridge though just yet.. I'm still hopeful we are about to buck the trend of dire Augusts though. 

And, in addition to that, Matt, this summer is panning-out pretty-much as Tamara et. al. suggested it might: not as sunny as last year but with a lot more thunderyness?:oldgood:

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2 hours ago, NTC said:

Can someone just explain how the models are produced is it literally a computer generated process or is there any human intervention for example if I had been putting the models together and seen a 41c I might have manually adjusted it to not look foolish but I assume these days its all just what the computer churns out?

There are some that are concerned that the computer generated models will be doing human forecasters out of a job moving into the future! And cost cutting would be my best guess on that one. For me human intervention is necessary. The models are generally very skilled with there predictions from day 1 out to possibly day 5/6, beyond that there skill levels drop substantially. Human input is always required to process pattern recognition skills, overall model performance and certain model biases. Let's hope it stays that way moving forward, I mean how often does man become 2nd best to machine in this day and age. But regarding the day to day micro details, it's very important there is human intervention at some point. 

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This morning;s ecm det run fits pretty well within the framework of the EPS mean anomaly. High pressure migrating north west into the Greenland/Iceland area as the major trough is established over Europe. This movement facilitates ridging over the UK as the upper low in the Atlantic fills in situ with the westerly upper flow tracking east south of the block and the low and abating and backing close to the UK Thus some settled weather, with any frontal systems affecting the north west with temps generally above average.

In the ext period the subtropical high in the western Atlantic is tending to amplify more as a rough develops south from the Arctic to the UK and with the upper flow becoming westerly this portends more changeable weather with temps around average, As ever the det runs need to sort detail.

5-10.thumb.png.d5c627e935fa1f17dc1ec5586bade134.png10-15.thumb.png.b7afa78ff94e77c173c26f8b25de6fff.pngtemp.thumb.png.1bd9584dbf0491bfc3f939e88bbf16c9.png

Last night's NOAA in the same ball park

610day_03.thumb.gif.795626b2add066fa241db6358dd51289.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.81770d1b9c7f255d40967233c34e45fd.gif

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