Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Downpour]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example:

Indeed. I think the nearest station is RAF Wittering? All eyes on that? 

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example:

And to the west of London. Areas like Northolt and Heathrow, which are often hot spots.

[Man With Beard]

ECM raw maximums for tomorrow are 35/36C - actually down a degree or two from a couple of days ago - after usual adjustments this would suggest a final maximum of between 37C and 40C. However there's a very wide area likely to go into the mid 30s, wider even than ARPEGE. 

My most sensible guess for tomorrow based on all input is a 38C or 39C. In spite of the ARPEGE chart, I'd put 40C at about 20% chance. I'd agree with the Met Office assessment of 60/40 chance of the all-time record. 

[Captain Shortwave]

55 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nasty little low at T144 on the ECM 12z . 

 

Yes, that is going to need some watching. A messy pattern emerging next week with staggering amounts of blocking to our north with the jet buckling only so far south which effectively leaves low pressure to get squeezed through the middle. It might push through the UK or stop well short and allow pressure to rebuild. A very hard pattern to call purely because of how unprecedented it is.

As for tomorrow, 36-40c still the range with 38/39c the likely high, many places with a chance from North Kent, NW London and Cambridgeshire all in with a shout.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Captain Shortwave

[stodge]

Evening all

As to the "then what" question, UKM and ECM producing very similar output out to T+144 tonight. Both show the pool of hot air moving into Scandinavia and inflating a significant anticyclone which then pushes the residual warm air west toward Greenland. The British isles are left under the trough so a very different week next week with plenty of rain but some hope as the LP retreats back west of a new push of heights from the SW.

GFS 12Z OP goes down that route with the LP never really getting in and the ridge keeping the south not too bad - obviously a deal cooler than now but still in the warm category. Control follows the UKM/ECM route but Legacy holds HP in charge until early August when rising heights over Greenland send the trough over us and it's June 2019 Part 2. 

[knocker]

Given the differences between the gfs and ecm the detail next week awaits sorting

[shaky]

15 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM raw maximums for tomorrow are 35/36C - actually down a degree or two from a couple of days ago - after usual adjustments this would suggest a final maximum of between 37C and 40C. However there's a very wide area likely to go into the mid 30s, wider even than ARPEGE. 

My most sensible guess for tomorrow based on all input is a 38C or 39C. In spite of the ARPEGE chart, I'd put 40C at about 20% chance. I'd agree with the Met Office assessment of 60/40 chance of the all-time record. 

You got a temperature map for tomorrow from the 12z mate!!00z had 35 or 36 degrees widely right across england and bordering wales!!

[Mike Poole]

37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example:

Just to follow up on this, sorry for self-quote!, usually 20+ uppers are so rare and only just push into the southeast.   But tomorrow it is now nailed on that these will be well into central and central  eastern regions, GFS T24:

Brings more places into play, places further from the coast, with local advantages....etc...so more chances of the record!....I'm in an off site meeting tomorrow, just hope they have got wi-fi!  Should be a fascinating now-cast, record or not?  I am going with the Met Office probability of 60%.....we will see....

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[kold weather]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM raw maximums for tomorrow are 35/36C - actually down a degree or two from a couple of days ago - after usual adjustments this would suggest a final maximum of between 37C and 40C. However there's a very wide area likely to go into the mid 30s, wider even than ARPEGE. 

My most sensible guess for tomorrow based on all input is a 38C or 39C. In spite of the ARPEGE chart, I'd put 40C at about 20% chance. I'd agree with the Met Office assessment of 60/40 chance of the all-time record. 

Based from 12z ECM yesterday it was about 2-3c too cool over most of the region which will be hottest. It's max was 31c in a small zone, max today was around the 34c mark.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Rob K said:

Strange that the Arpege model goes for the highest temperatures if it also has more cloud!

Wonder if high cloud an issue? a lot of it here, quite thick too

[Don]

25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example:

Yes Peterborough still looks to be in the firing line on that map.  Am there for next three nights and have to make do with a fan tonight.  Hope the hotel tomorrow has air con!  Will be amazed if the all time record does not tumble.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the Ecm mean for next week, we appear to have a bit of everything going on... One thing for sure it remains warm. 

Look to the South.... Plume 3 anyone

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[GeordieX9v]

I may go live tomorrow on the coast if anything spicy pops up.

Edited July 24, 2019 by evans1892
oops wrong thread

[knocker]

Synops max temps 1800 today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

47 minutes ago, Downpour said:

Indeed. I think the nearest station is RAF Wittering? All eyes on that? 

A bit of a shame, as wittering sits at a much higher elevation than Peterborough itself and to the south of the city. RAF Wyton near Huntingdon would probably see higher, or Holbeach (Lincs). But you never know. 

[Coopsy]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example:

Generally it’s hottest in north Kent on a direct southerly due to the downs just to the south giving a Foehn effect. If it’s ESE not sure we’ll have the highest temps. Some parts of central Kent might but agree looking like north of London could take it tomorrow 

Edited July 24, 2019 by CanadianCoops

[Sweatyman]

42 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wonder if high cloud an issue? a lot of it here, quite thick too

As usual for our parts

[Downpour]

21 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

A bit of a shame, as wittering sits at a much higher elevation than Peterborough itself and to the south of the city. RAF Wyton near Huntingdon would probably see higher, or Holbeach (Lincs). But you never know. 

Interesting. There’s actually rather a lack of stations in that part of the world. 

[matty007]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example:

Well. I live near Cambridge and Peterborough and whilst it is one of the warmest regions in the UK, it is rather rare indeed to set daily maximum records here. It will be quite a widespread extreme tomorrow. However, I still feel South London/Kent is where we shall see the maximum. I am still confident of my Maidstone/Sevenoaks prediction. 

In regards to the probabilities tomorrow...I think 60% is a little conservative for the all time record. While we don't have Aperage charts of 2003, I can confidently say that they would not have shown 39c so widely, and never has a chart shown 40-41c in the UK. Neither was the upper air so warm and widespread in 2003. I can also say that the pre-warming has virtually been every bit as high as 2003, and the ground in the SE is bone dry. 

80% probability of exceeding 38.5c for me (The other 20% on the chance that cloud will show) 40c is probably about a 30-40% chance. 



 

Edited July 24, 2019 by matty007

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Well. I live near Cambridge and Peterborough and while it is one of the warmest regions in the UK, it is rather rare indeed to set daily maximum records here. It will be quite a widespread extreme tomorrow. However, I still feel South London/Kent is where we shall see the maximum. I am still confident of my Maidstone/Sevenoaks prediction. 

In regards to the probabilities tomorrow...I think 60% is a little conservative for the all time record. While we don't have Aperage charts of 2003, I can confidently say that they would not have shown 39c so widely, and never has a chart shown 40-41c in the UK. Neither was the upper air so warm and widespread in 2003. I can also say that the pre-warming has virtually been every bit as high as 2003, and the ground in the SE is bone dry. 

80% probability of exceeding 38.5c for me (The other 20% on the chance that cloud will show) 40c is probably about a 30-40% chance. 



 

Met Office have said its a 70% possibility now.

[matty007]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Met Office have said its a 70% possibility now.

Better. But still a little conservative to be honest. It's nearing being nailed on, it's only cloud that will scupper it. 34.4c was recorded easily today with much lower upper air temps than we will have tomorrow. Only need another 4.1c for the all time record. 

 

[Frosty.]

Oooo the Gfs 18z operational shows 37c for the SE tomorrow, that's an upgrade from the gfs so add a few degrees to that and we have 39c. heck, make that a nice round 40c!!!!!!!!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Oooo the Gfs 18z operational shows 37c for the SE tomorrow, that's an upgrade from the gfs so add a few degrees to that and we have 39c. heck, make that a nice round 40c!!!!!!!!

It’s annoying how much that model under cooks temperatures by. The upgrade appears to have made no improvements to that!

[matty007]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Oooo the Gfs 18z operational shows 37c for the SE tomorrow, that's an upgrade from the gfs so add a few degrees to that and we have 39c. heck, make that a nice round 40c!!!!!!!!

Well, GFS has been about 4c too low recently. So that would be 41c 

[kold weather]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s annoying how much that model under cooks temperatures by. The upgrade appears to have made no improvements to that!

If anything it's running a little cooler than the previous GFS, clearly a model bias it has which I hope will be ironed out over the years. If you know the bias, it's easy enough to account for it.