Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[knocker]

The 1400 UTC UK chart

[feb1991blizzard]

48 minutes ago, knocker said:

I think more to the point vis the thunderstorm warning late tomorrow afternoon is whether any storms will be preceded by any medium level cloud (such as Ac Cas) just prior to maximum temp time

Would this mean that the 100f mark might not be reached?

[cheese]

13 minutes ago, Bogman said:

As amazing as it will be tomorrow, where is the enjoyment in it? 

Who will be out working in it with no problems, sun bathing in it? It will be too warm to enjoy, so apart from the enjoyment factor of it being most probably a few records broken, where is the fun?

If it’s going to be extremely hot then we might as well squeeze a record out of it. It’ll be almost 20 degrees cooler by Saturday anyway.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Saturday really does look a poor day towards the North and East... The rainband looking stuck for some time... Temps in this zone... 16-18c....it looks a fair bit better towards the West, in sunny spells perhaps 20-22c.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Bogman said:

As amazing as it will be tomorrow, where is the enjoyment in it? 

Who will be out working in it with no problems, sun bathing in it? It will be too warm to enjoy, so apart from the enjoyment factor of it being most probably a few records broken, where is the fun?

I kind of agree... The fun is really in the chase, especially when you have been counting it down for a fair few days. Which kind of proves we can get extremes in this country and still get them from a week out, and watch them count down to 0hrs.... Which makes it even more the worthwhile. And when you consider the type of scenario we faced in early June when many were saying heatwave chances are receding by the day, yet nearly 2 months on we have faced 2 heatwave scenarios... With the potential for more to come in August.... Makes it all the more satisfying. All I can say is, this is the U.k at its best.... And stay safe in the heat sums it all up really. 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Paul]

This being the model thread, can we keep it related to the model output please. There's a whole lot of more general chat about the heat, the potential record, how good/bad/horrible it may be etc, over in the summer thread. 

 

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, matty007 said:

It's going to be a monumental day and one I, and most of us, will remember for a long time. 

I really do think we can accomplish three things tomorrow. 

1. The July record (if it's not done today )
2. 38.5c (I'm virtually positive this will be surpassed)
3. 40c. (Call me an optimist, but I just have an feeling that we might just do it. Or at least get very close) 

Amazing and a real treat for heat lovers and extremists like me. 

I'd agree with all that... though I'd temper it with a prediction that we wont have to wait too many more years for it to be broken again. The catastrophic decline in arctic sea ice is, in my opinion, significantly impacting on the jet, and with such a meandering course from north to south becoming more common these feeds of tropical air are going to be much less rare. Weather records may be broken at all times of the year in the UK regularly from here on in as the reality of climate change and the specific arctic feedback for the North Atlantic becomes embedded.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Catacol

[Man With Beard]

With the hysteria over reaching 40C or not, I almost forgot the weather carried on next week

Here's a look at the clusters for D10

Northern blocking puts us at risk of a southerly tracking jet, but with slight positive anomalies over Europe, every chance the Atlantic will be held back once more and the UK could once again be on the warm side of the pattern - or dry but average if a North Sea influence sets in. Several options on the table then, but drier options preferred on balance for the end of next week.

D11-D15 - well, looks like the trough may take over. Now, back to the record-breaking...

[Frosty.]

From little acorns...the GEFS mean looked similar to this a few weeks ago as a warmer trend began to emerge regarding this week and the rest is history..well it will be tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

still looking like the +20 850s will reach here which is rare possibly historic     

[MattStoke]

Latest Aperge. 39'C looks more widespread than the last update to me. Might even be a 40'C in there.

Edited July 24, 2019 by MattStoke

[Mike Poole]

ARPEGE ensembles 6z, charts are 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the probability distribution:

So uncertainty reduced now to a maximum of between 34C and just under 40C, Met Office have put 60% as the probability of beating the all time UK record, and that's consistent, and with the kind of likelihoods we've discussed on here too....will it, won't it?  Gripping!  The all time records, hot or cold, don't go very often.

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I spy a couple of 40c on the latest ARPEGE run. The naughty 40's 

And omg a 41c 

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[warrenb]

Even a 41 just south of Ramsey

[Mike Poole]

19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Latest Aperge. 39'C looks more widespread than the last update to me. Might even be a 40'C in there.

Zoomed in on it and can't find one, but a fair region of 39C near Cambridge:

Edit, noted above posts, must be between the hourly plots, but 41 - extraordinary!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

I spy a couple of 40c on the latest ARPEGE run. The naughty 40's 

And omg a 41c 

 

Those maxima are much further north than was shown even yesterday as well.

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Zoomed in on it and can't find one, but a fair region of 39C near Cambridge:

Edit, noted above posts, must be between the hourly plots, but 41 - extraordinary!

 

13 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

I spy a couple of 40c on the latest ARPEGE run. The naughty 40's 

And omg a 41c 

 

Hope there's a station in that area if it comes off!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 

Hope there's a station in that area if it comes off!

Don't think there is...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

List of independent automatic stations here:

https://www.weatherstations.co.uk/aws_map.htm

Only one of the stations, at Peterborough, is still active.

Edited July 24, 2019 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Mike Poole]

AROME ensembles 9z at T30 4pm Thursday, charts are 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% of the probability distribution:

I don't buy the bottom half of this probability distribution at all, I cannot see any scenario that we don't see 35C plus somewhere.  AROME ensembles only 12 members so maybe that is relevant.  Having said that, the high end of the distribution is over 40C which the ARPEGE ensembles wasn't.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Icon and GFS at 24hrs...you guessed it the heat is expansive.... Now just for any thundery activity to hold off. 

[Man With Beard]

Time for one last detailed look at Thursday on the ARPEGE 12Z

A zone of 36C and above from Bognor Regis up to Scunthorpe, and from Derby and Oxford across to Norwich.

33C for Manchester and maybe Birmingham, 34C for York and Leeds, and 30C for Edinburgh and Inverness.

A large area from London to the Wash at 38C, and 40C in spots such as Peterborough.

 

[Man With Beard]

AROME 12Z is one or two degrees lower than ARPEGE in general - Londond looking like the hot spot on this one at 38C/39C

[Gael_Force]

This wee snippet from the French Met office shows how exceptional the heat of tomorrow is. Red warnings a few miles away from you!

Quote

Thursday will be the hottest day of the event, with always high minimum temperatures often between 18 and 24 ° C and maximum 39 to 42 ° C in the interior, 35 to 38 ° C on the coast. These temperatures are absolutely exceptional for the region: many absolute records of maximum temperatures will be beaten. The threshold of 40 ° C had been very rarely reached until then. It should be frequently passed tomorrow afternoon. The unprecedented nature of this peak of heat justifies the red vigilance of all the departments of Hauts-de-France.

http://vigilance.meteofrance.com/Bulletin.html?a=dept62&b=

Edited July 24, 2019 by Gael_Force
edit for link

[knocker]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Would this mean that the 100f mark might not be reached?

Put it another way. It's an added complication in reaching maxima potential that is best not to happen to later in the afternoon. Not that I'm saying it will happen