Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[kold weather]

18z GFS and Icon are still somehow on the cooler side with 36/37c respectively but that is an increase in earlier runs.ad to call 36c on the cooler side...but it is!

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

Switching to the Maximum T2 on Meteociel and this view, shows a little 40c, hidden by the top right bar. Make that of what you will

That 40c looks to be around Peterborough and guess whose going to be in Peterborough Thursday?  Me!!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

18z GFS and Icon are still somehow on the cooler side with 36/37c respectively but that is an increase in earlier runs.ad to call 36c on the cooler side...but it is!

The fact that its increased from earlier runs could mean its playin catch up!!at the moment midlands east anglia and the south east look to be copping the heat big time on thursday!!not to say its not gona be hot elsewhere but the extreme heat will be reserved for the regions mentioned above!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Only 35c on Euro4.

[londonblizzard]

10 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

Switching to the Maximum T2 on Meteociel and this view, shows a little 40c, hidden by the top right bar. Make that of what you will

EDIT: Added a better view

the colours on that chart - especially with the british isles looking like it's melting in to a burning sea - is also an abstract depiction of what thursday is going to feel like in london. Never seen a chart like that before

[Porto]

I think the actual positioning of that 40c is perhaps something to be ignored from the model, but it does mean that there seems to be the POTENTIAL of 40c somewhere in the London up to Cambridgeshire area. Something the models have yet to actually really go as far to say. But I wouldnt put a bet on it.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Loifeless

[Porto]

Looking at the radar currently, I believe some may clip West London (aka our two typical hot spots). But it does have more or less a whole day to dry out, and the ARPEGE model even has rainfall over London included into their model for tonight. So I guess they presume up to 40c even with rain.

[kold weather]

20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only 35c on Euro4.

Remember that is only a grid point, hottest temps will n that chart are a little east of that grid point. Plus widespread 35 would suggest maxes at usual hotspots a good 2c higher regardless.

Edit - yes deepest red strip shows between 36-38c, likely you'd get a local temp 1-2c higher in the classic hotspots as well.

Edited July 23, 2019 by kold weather

[Rob K]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only 35c on Euro4.

The grid spacing for the numbers is just too wide. If you look at the shading there are plenty of areas above 36C, although the key is very confusing.

[matty007]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Only 35c on Euro4.

That shows about 36-37c in deep red to the right and below the 35c figure. 

[Porto]

Indeed the EURO 4 has 37c when zoomed in.

[matty007]

5 minutes ago, Loifeless said:

Indeed the EURO 4 has 37c when zoomed in.

Can typically add 2c to the Euro. Arpege tends to be the most accurate at this time frame for temperatures, that is suggesting 39c. 

Arpege - 39c 
Euro - 37c
CPTEC - 38c
Icon - 38c
GEM - 37c. 
GFS ( add 2c) - 36c (38c)

Taking it over all the models, 38c seems to be the figure. Being conservative and adding 1c, would place the final figure somewhere around 39c. Although you really can't rule out 40c. 2c over forecast is rather common. 

Who's taking bets on it ending up at 39.9c 

[MattStoke]

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

UKV now has a high of 40c tomorrow.

[Porto]

Certainly less wide spread 39c on there, but the inclusion of 40c makes it the second model to do so. Rest could be believably added upon temp wise with the usual values to get pretty close too. And with both the met and BBC showing 39c on their forecasts.. pretty damn wild

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and the the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 UK chart

As can be seen a very warm and muggy night, Just out of interest a quick glance at the Hersmonceux midnight sounding still showing 30C at 985mb above the radiation inversion

and still some heavy thundery rain in the north which should clear northern Scotland by 0900 this morning with perhaps a few residual slight showers. Thus  a warm, hot in the south east, and sunny day, but a tad cooler in the west. where there may be some cloud around

Another dry and muggy night tonight with some very light rain just effecting N. Ireland by dawn courtesy of  fronts associated with the low west of Ireland

By midday tomorrow the upper trough has adjusted alignment resulting in a another surge of hot air from the south resulting in a very warm day for all of the UK and very hot in many areas of England but particularly the south east. But the fronts associated with the low to the west are tracking east and there could be some thundery out breaks in western regions by late afternoon

The progression east of the thundery outbreaks continues over Thursday night and through Friday as the fronts continue to track east resulting in a much fresher, showery, day for most on Friday

Over the weekend the pattern change that has been discussed previously tales place resulting in the surface fronts not moving very far and thundery outbreaks taking place for much of the period but generally confined the the north east and eastern regions

[knocker]

I'm not inclined to bother with much detail past the weekend but just to note the NH progression with an intense TPV over norther Russia and high cell in the eastern Arctic

[Captain Shortwave]

Not much to say this morning after a rather eventful night.

There looks to be some showers breaking out later on Thursday with another round of showers moving northwards from France which lasts into Friday, nothing persistent but obviously the risk of torrential downpours near enough anywhere across the British mainland. I would treat rain predictions with a pinch of salt as even into the weekend the rainfall looks showery in nature.

Temperatures

Today - 32-35C East Anglia

Tomorrow - 36-39C (Low end achieved quite widely, high probably up the A1 corridor if such a thing exists as far north as Peterborough)

Friday - 25-28C but 30C still possible in theory.

[kold weather]

Bar the GFS which stubbornly stays cooler around 35-36 (and IMO was poor yesterday and too cool) most models now homing in around 38c, give or take 1c. Such an outcome wouldake it highly likely at least one station would break the record.

[knocker]

A snapshot of the ecm over the weekend

[mb018538]

Without wishing to sound like a party pooper on a record breaking week....next week is starting to look very dodgy indeed!

All models this morning balloon a big Arctic high up as a result of all the heat in our locale, and as such the Atlantic lows have nowhere to go except slowly drift across and get stuck over the UK. Looks a bit like early June again, could be a real soaking on the way, as well as down the eastern half for the weekend. One to watch.

[Man With Beard]

Highest min last night seems about 23C so probably missed the minimum record - this time. 

Main models converging on 38-40C for Thursday now, and a very wide area 33-37C

[knocker]

A lot of Stratus has crept in down here

[Guest]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Bar the GFS which stubbornly stays cooler around 35-36 (and IMO was poor yesterday and too cool) most models now homing in around 38c, give or take 1c. Such an outcome wouldake it highly likely at least one station would break the record.

GFS was nearly 5c out here yesterday! 

[Frosty.]

The magic 100F is within reach!!!

 

 

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jon Snow