Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

ICON swings that low into the trough FV3-style but it’s too far north; it stays involved with the jet stream and the merges with the other low in the trough to produce one deep system.

ECM 00z was some 500 miles west with the main LP position, and the one arriving from the west was much weaker with no merger - so there’s a lot to sort out here!

Edited by Singularity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Just before the 12s, an update on my estimated probability of the UK temperature record being broken.

Last night I put it at 25%.  This dropped to 15% after the 0z runs, but the 6z both FV3 and legacy GFS and a strong ensemble suite shows that actually the uncertainty remains, no downgrade can be substantiated yet, and so I'm back at 25% as the GFS 12z starts to roll.  Fascinating.

 

Edited by Mike Poole

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Eyes down for the 12z folks!

UKMO sticking to its guns - hot Tuesday & Wednesday before the heat is pushed away. Probably still hot in the east Thursday.

image.thumb.png.18a8daf093797d067921aa4a1f46e1c0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to suggest the ukmo 12h will be better than the ICON even though the run isn't quite finished and I don't have the 850's yet!👍..am I bold or foolish?..don't answer that!😜

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z FV3 to +102 versus 06z... both lows slightly deeper, ridge a tad weaker, but northern low a little further west.

Tough one to call.

UKMO has the southern low missing the northern one yet continuing further east than the FV3 06z took it. Still an overall slower looking shift east of the hit airmass though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Part of the problem is the development/lack of development of all the little low pressure features zipping across the Atlantic
.
12z for 8pm Wednesday:                         6z for 8pm Wednesday:

image.thumb.png.9f0d898121359b582775b1eb4cd2bba1.pngimage.thumb.png.0bcc28b96fe5cdc9c7f2783d5b54ea9c.png

One deep low, one hardly developed. No wonder it's a nightmare.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I fail to see the optimism guys... Yes it's very warm, even hot towards the East... But the core of the heat is missing us on both ukmo and GFS... What's that coming over the hill... Is it a monster..... No its a backtrack!!! 😂

UW96-21.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, southern low tracks just a tad too far north and engages with the jet stream... quite impressively in fact.

Even so, hot air is still a hanging on for eastern parts on Thu. Odds of that day hitting the 30s for at least the SE have increased during today IMO - while Wed now has a high chance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

More of an eastward shift on the ICON / UKMO 12 compared to the 0z / 6z runs so far and yet most of next week still looks very warm / hot and plumey away from NW Britain!👍

UW96-21.thumb.gif.658c8adabc0d362089d2255767406321.gifUW96-7.thumb.gif.686ad1745000d8fd35dd568d28b4d3b6.gifUW120-21.thumb.gif.259366a085674c918ca4e18b5e725801.gifUW120-7.thumb.gif.7dc8a0cf07d74b48003bc3bf0685f45d.gifUW144-21.thumb.gif.1051e733d669b99228d3f4bffbe2d7db.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.eae9726f2177f77221a479f11bd30df5.gif

Edited by Jon Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

More of an eastward shift on the ICON / UKMO 12 compared to the 0z / 6z runs so far and yet most of next week still looks very warm / hot and plumey away from NW Britain!👍

If it goes any further East Karl it will be in the Ukraine... 😉

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just one run from the GFS, hopefully the reality will be something in between the 06Z run and this latest one. I have a feeling this 12Z run will be on the cooler side of the ensembles.

Of course I would love the 06Z to be right but that would be wishful thinking!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I'd be very surprised if there isn't an intense thundery trough in there, somewhere?:shok:

h850t850eu.png  h500slp.png

It's also possible that the GFS is overdoing the depth of that depression? I know, I'm getting desperate!:oldgrin:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Part of the problem is the development/lack of development of all the little low pressure features zipping across the Atlantic
.
12z for 8pm Wednesday:                         6z for 8pm Wednesday:

image.thumb.png.9f0d898121359b582775b1eb4cd2bba1.pngimage.thumb.png.0bcc28b96fe5cdc9c7f2783d5b54ea9c.png

One deep low, one hardly developed. No wonder it's a nightmare.

I have to say I think its highly unlikely that low will bomb out like GFS has it doing.

@T96hrs its a 1005mb non feature, 30hrs later you've got a sub 985mb low knocking on the door of western Ireland (which is 15mb lower the UKMO). Experience tells me that sort of deepening in high summer is unusual. I would already be relatively confident in saying the GFS Ops run will be on the more progressive side of the ensembles. 

Edited by Alderc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.edcd05793e6d5f13cfabcfbd8fca3805.pngimage.thumb.png.71516ebe35de5f9a40d946c6cb94d226.png

The 12z is the polar opposite to the 6z! Now we have a SW flow with a deep Icelandic trough. Earlier it was a SSE hot continental flow, with no Iceland low.

Headache anyone? Ensembles bound to be a mess yet again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z is still a very good run. And it clears out the funk Thursday/Friday to give a good weekend in the SE quadrant next weekend.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could that be an inchoate plume, just under Bart Simpson's nose?:oldgrin:

h500slp.png 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEM is no longer a gem.... Its fake costume jewelry!!! Surely to progressive with the low pressure! 

gem-0-120.png

gem-0-144.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS also rebuilds the warmth quickly and temps back up to 30C in the south east by Sunday - terrible 12Z 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can see the headlines now.... Plume 3....the revenge... They say sequels get worse... Perhaps with the weather they get better 🌞😉

gfs-0-210.png

gfs-1-210.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Id actually prefer the 12z - it rebuilds the warmth back, and really kills off heights over Iceland and Greenland.

Maxes:

32c Tuesday
33c Wednesday
32c Thursday
26c Friday
28c Saturday
30c Sunday
30c Monday

image.thumb.png.bdfc44006f24e60cd9eb784b119772de.png

It's a winner winner chicken dinner run!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah very disappointing Gfs 12z operational for next week, it only reaches 31-34c across the southeast on tues/wed/thurs......pfffttttttt🤪😜:whistling:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS also rebuilds the warmth quickly and temps back up to 30C in the south east by Sunday - terrible 12Z 😂

Aye, Chris...it always pays to look south? Except of course, during the winter months -- when those old newsreels of 1963 need be brought out of the closet!:oldgood::oldgrin:

If that 'feature' over western Spain/Portugal is what I hope it is, we may well be in line for a quadrilogy!

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z is probably worst case scenario. And it’s pretty good. It will be a cold outlier for at least some of next week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The 12z is probably worst case scenario. And it’s pretty good. It will be a cold outlier for at least some of next week.

Still looks warm/hot on thur- and i spy a 40 in France, or is it Netherlands  !

image.thumb.png.b2ba7d5a3777a9b052e571ae86b73b79.png

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Still looks warm/hot on thur- and i spy a 40 in France !

image.thumb.png.b2ba7d5a3777a9b052e571ae86b73b79.png

Don’t mention 40, it gets folk hot under the collar! Fully expect mid 30s in SE from the 12z GFS.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...