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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

EDM1-144.GIF?22-0   EDM1-192.GIF?22-0   EDM1-240.GIF?22-0

Looks like the ridge to our east may be close enough to dominate the weather for many areas, remaining very warm as well. Just some questions regarding fronts over the coming weekend and whether they stall, and if so where?

I wouldn't be surprised if the ridge continues to strengthen in influence over the coming model suites. GEFs very similar to the above.

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
50 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The average is 21c in June... And 23c in July and August... So its a fair bit above average in my eyes. 

 

47 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

24’C is the summer average, but 27’C is common for a few weeks at least each summer. It’s not note worthy in the slightest for the South East. Even 30’C occurs numerous times in the South East each summer. It has a warm climate. Far warmer than the rest of the UK.

O/T I know (sorry Mods), but this sort of disagreement is one of the reasons newcomers get confused.  One (or both) of you must be incorrect, I'm afraid.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon further west again at only 51 hours

It's the second wave i'm more interested in on thursday!

Looking great!

 

icon-1-69.png

icon-0-69.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon further west again at only 51 hours

Highest uppers are a bit slower to push into the UK on Thursday though. If they’re too slow, the chances of records will be reduced. Although, they have crossed the south coast by 11am on this run.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ICON at T69:

image.thumb.jpg.dd60e5c181d91bb377553e54805be1ef.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7215aa76efb4fe0ad3c9113dc78c2d80.jpg

Ticking down so close now that it is going to happen, as far as the uppers are concerned anyway, focus should now shift to the surface details, cloud, storms and the high res models....

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Ruddy wonderful icon any further West with these uppers and we will have the Welsh valleys in on some of the action... 

icon-1-72.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

O/T I know (sorry Mods), but this sort of disagreement is one of the reasons newcomers get confused.  One (or both) of you must be incorrect, I'm afraid.

 

temperature-graph.pngthese should add ba bit of clarity Chris..

climate-graph.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ruddy wonderful icon any further West with these uppers and we will have the Welsh valleys in on some of the action... 

icon-1-72.png

icon-1-81.thumb.png.d0d7e69e0241aec88411619fc6847b99.pnglovely jubbly

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Weather Boy Enthusiast

Weather Boy

Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
Posted
32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Some probabilistic fun from the ARPEGE ensemble 6z.  Here are the 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% percentiles and maximum peak temperatures Thursday...image.thumb.jpg.49c739775ab92d006adac675031348b6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.37212165a632c558145de4026fe3b1d0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.b91fc802a35165f3050a59df911422b9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d9ec9c46ac45df3e1f48129b76592c25.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.b8eb3336825a86c54dbc030b5b5fcd8e.jpg

The max is insane (edit - apologies that I originally posted a chart 3 hrs later for the max one, now corrected) and what also strikes me is the location of the hot spots, not just the SE corner, and with 20+ uppers affecting a large swathe of the south and east, we might find some new hot spots!

Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

ICON maximum temperatures for Thursday. Low to mid thirties as far west as East Wales! Highest temperature I can see on there is 35'C.

icon.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
8 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks.

I think those charts and the temperatures associated with them indicate the percentage chance of that particular scenario coming off... I maybe wrong.. If so Mike will put you right. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ICON maximum temperatures for Thursday. Low to mid thirties as far west as East Wales! Highest temperature I can see on there is 35'C.

icon.png

Jeez only 35c 95f..that's just not good enough!!!!!!!!!!:whistling:

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ICON maximum temperatures for Thursday. Low to mid thirties as far west as East Wales! Highest temperature I can see on there is 35'C.

icon.png

And that again demonstrates how small changes in wind direction can really change the distribution of the heat. We lose the really intense heat over the SE in favour of much more widespread hot weather. A lot of local records could well be broken but the national record could end up staying intact due to this subtle change (PS this isn't a gripe on the synoptic situation which is still remarkable, just an explanation of the changes )

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
Just now, Weather Boy said:

Sorry, Mike, I'm probably being very dim, but it's just possible I'm not alone in not understanding these charts, but they seem interesting. Would you be kind enough to explain them to the idiots among us? Thanks.

Yes, of course.

The PEARP or ARPEGE ensembles are like ECM or GEFS ensembles, a series of model runs with different starting conditions, or perturbations.  Just it is for shorter range prediction in the case of ARPEGE, GEFS and ECM ensembles are for day 10+ really.

So in the case of PEARP, 35  calculations with different starting conditions are run trying to capture the uncertainty.  That gives a probability distribution of outcomes and the charts I posted are different percentiles in that distribution, from 25%, then the median 50%, the one in the middle, to 75%, 90% and the maximum, thus giving a graphical idea of the uncertainties relating (in this case) to peak temperature.  

Hope that helps.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And that again demonstrates how small changes in wind direction can really change the distribution of the heat. We lose the really intense heat over the SE in favour of much more widespread hot weather. A lot of local records could well be broken but the national record could end up staying intact due to this subtle change.

Indeed. Good for more of us to join in with the proper heatwave conditions. Not so great for those of us who like records and absolute extremes. Although I would still think that the July record at least could go as well as local records.Disappointed that the chances of the all time record being broken look to be reducing. Got to be only matter of time until it is beaten though, what with the warming climate.

Edited by MattStoke
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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

And that again demonstrates how small changes in wind direction can really change the distribution of the heat. We lose the really intense heat over the SE in favour of much more widespread hot weather. A lot of local records could well be broken but the national record could end up staying intact due to this subtle change (PS this isn't a gripe on the synoptic situation which is still remarkable, just an explanation of the changes )

And note that Friday is now shown to reach 34C in East Anglia with temperature reaching 32C up here in Yorkshire too, so even here we could exceed 30C three times this week, not something that happens often for this part of the world. If Wednesday ends up a bit hotter than currently forecast we could exceed 30C for four days in a row!

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NTC Contributor

NTC

Posted
  • Location: Doncaster
  • Location: Doncaster
Posted
Just now, cheese said:

And note that Friday is now shown to reach 34C in East Anglia with temperature reaching 32C up here in Yorkshire too, so even here we could exceed 30C three times this week, not something that happens often for this part of the world. If Wednesday ends up a bit hotter than currently forecast we could exceed 30C for four days in a row!

I don't think we will have 30c on Friday 

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
2 minutes ago, NTC said:

I don't think we will have 30c on Friday 

Just based on the latest ICON run. All liable to change.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 18z operational is going for 36c in the SE on thursday and again there's a small area within the main heat zone which could hit 37-38c which would of course beat the Heathrow July 2015 record which I believe is 36.7c?....impressive cape, ripe for T-Storm development!

18_72_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.a6c5fdad772fb1331a7561a4d5c43b0c.png18_72_mslp850.thumb.png.65b05a0e3eeba365600a266f0de499e3.png18_72_ukthickness850.thumb.png.dd1ffbef0780199a76e0c14c3484457b.png18_72_ukcape.thumb.png.6a5366b1cbbdecd4809430c2123b46cc.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted (edited)

Good news!!ģfs 18z literally identical out to 96 hours to the 12z!!infact the heat is pushing the atlantic further west again at 102 hours with a scandi high!!this is unreal!!

Edited by shaky
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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z looks a tad further east here at the crucial stage, T66, T72:

image.thumb.jpg.843eefce0aeb2c6492e537a963816505.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c3cc34112d6e3c0c56decf151040a051.jpg

Gives a maximum temperature of 36'C in London.

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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted

looking like the 18:00 GFS shows low pressure completely Stalling over the Far West of theUK Friday-Saturday , and stays South a little longer due to lack of momentum..
But it looks like it allows a ridge to come in from the South East.. over the weekend.. and lose the influence of a further atlantic Low
 

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