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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Roll on the weekend for me! Incredible watching the charts and waiting to see if all time records do go in various places. But it really is far too hot for me but enjoy it folks that do like such

Its been forgotten that the opening week or so of the month was warm both by day and night and the CET was (technically) well above average and the second third of the month has simply corrected that

Looking back at a previous post last weekend, and some thinking expressed back then, its clear that the lesser progressive solutions did lead the way in some erratic modelling that was forced into som

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The GEFS 12z mean for Friday is much hotter than it was a few hours ago on the 6z!!!!!!!!!???????..amazing..insane..wonderful!!!!???

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Edited by Jon Snow
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2 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Given the upgrade in the last 24 hours for Thursday, 
What if this happens in the next 24 hours for Friday too ?

Interesting point .

It might be hard going to do that but just looking at last night 18 hrs GEFS ensembles and comparing them to the 12 hrs today .

Last night unanimous support for the 850s dipping to around 10c for the 26 th  . The 12 hrs is quite an amazing change .

Indeed since last night every set has shedded the cooler runs , it could still stay hot but I think the extreme heat might be more difficult .

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

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Fascinating GEFS !!

The drop off a lot less pronounced this evening with a decent cluster hitting the extension button ?

I have no evidence to back this up, other than that remarkable GEFS set above, but I can't help but feel like we're on the cusp of something truly historic. There must be a chance, albeit a slim one, that we are on the verge of an extended spell of heat. Even if it peaks this Thursday we could see a continuation of well above average temperatures for some time. Think I'm just getting giddy ?

Edited by Onding
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Is it possible with the west ward corrections we might squeeze in another day of mid to high 30s. Truly extroadinary developments tonight. Notice the corrections west are churning out different solutions to beyond friday. May well lock in to a dry and warm/hot spell of weather. What is fascinating is the depth of widespread heat showing. A big chunk to the south and east are showing 37 and even 38s. Bear in mind the record was 38.5 . Could wipe the floor with the record 

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Can’t you pull a sickie ? 

No way I’d be hitting the underground in that heat again . Re records if the favoured areas miss  any showers , so dry right through and sunny on Thursday then I’d put it at a 70% chance.

 

I’m actually going for an interview for another job, so no chance there! ?

I love the heat, but the underground can be unbearable in this weather. 

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You can see the huge difference in 24 hrs if you compare last nights T96 hrs fax chart and compare it to the T72 hrs fax chart which has just updated .

A big westwards correction . Sorry can’t link as on iPad but that’s quite some change.

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18 minutes ago, Onding said:

I have no evidence to back this up, other than that remarkable GEFS set above, but I can't help but feel like we're on the cusp of something truly historic. There must be a chance, albeit a slim one, that we are on the verge of an extended spell of heat. Even if it peaks this Thursday we could see a continuation of well above average temperatures for some time. Think I'm just getting giddy ?

I believe so. You dont have to say much when in the last 250 years the last 4 have been the warmest globally. It makes you wonder. Its like 35c is the new 30c. We hit it more or less every year no problem and a handful of times each summer

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ECM holding strong at T72, as to be honest you would expect it to!

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I'm upping my probability of the UK record going to 55%, that's a big jump but reflective of the big changes in the modelling over the last 24 hours.

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1 minute ago, RAIN RAIN RAIN said:

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20C 850hpa temps for shetland

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Crazy, crazy chart. 20c 850’s in Shetland would be simply absurd and incredible. Naturally it wouldn’t produce the same surface temperatures as 20c 850’s would further south, but still remarkable nonetheless. 

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Briefly on ARPEGE having such a different temp distribution to other modelling - it’s one big weakness from what I’ve observed during the past few years is too much advection of temps with the flow.

This amounts to too much cooling of locations within about 20-50 miles of the coast, but seems to help it catch the true maxima well inland where this error counteracts the underestimation seen in global models (and to a lesser extent in some high-res models).

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I've been waiting for some kinda fall back into the "downgrades" these events usually end up experiencing, but the closer we get the more apparent this is a very significant event. July record almost looks certain to fall with the Met Office predicting themselves 37c somewhere in the SE, it's still crazy to think that 40c is really not completely out of the question (even if still a low chance). And now the last 12 hours of models have shown that this might not all be over by Friday. Very interesting weather watching times

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Whilst I've not seen past 03z on Thursday on the ECM, much cooler night than was forecasted by the 00z (by a solid 2-3c), so the heat may not be quite as extreme on the 12z ECM at the surface for Thursday day, but we will see.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Whilst I've not seen past 03z on Thursday on the ECM, much cooler night than was forecasted by the 00z (by a solid 2-3c), so the heat may not be quite as extreme on the 12z ECM at the surface for Thursday day, but we will see.

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-4077600.thumb.png.6627add4c8b5795797d7d40b15b5487e.png

Cooler air in by Friday with the trough with the big negative tilt

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Edited by knocker
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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

ecmwf-uk-t2m_c_max6-4077600.thumb.png.6627add4c8b5795797d7d40b15b5487e.png

Still hot, but noticeably cooler than some of the other models out there tonught.

Seems to stem from the overnight mins dropping away quite nicely. For example, London down to 17c by 1am...

Looks somewhat too low to me though based on what all the other models are showing...almost certainly the coolest of the main models for sure tonight...

Edited by kold weather
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Amazing ecm so far!!also just seen the gfs ensembles and what a flip from friday onwards!!as good as the gfs was it actually one of the coolest runs!!!the heat could be here to stay way longer than we thought!!

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