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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

GFS nudges things ever so slightly further west on Thursday

image.thumb.png.c6ea4af7fc916ff189e5bdddbd56a333.png GFSOPEU06_81_2.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Gfs legacy has the heat slightly further West than the FV3.... would be nice to see a further 50-100 miles NW corrections to bring others into the game... And tbh it's still possible. 

gfs-1-72.png

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Chris K Rising Star

Chris K

Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
Posted
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.bd731ef02cdaadb08fb8729c9d4fbed8.png

image.thumb.png.a867af560cd64a3d4e525e8fab402e1d.png

image.thumb.png.d3389581a1c2ba144c724a9c64330588.png

image.thumb.png.e153bcfd0af8dd8e133400b7b6679faa.png

GFS advertising some very warm temps for midnight tomorrow with a trough moving up from the SW, could tomorrow night turn thundery?

Difficult to tell as models seem to show the main action developing more North across parts of Wales/Midlands and upwards into Scotland. However I am only going by precipitation which I guess could not taking into account 'dry' thunderstorms? 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Surface temperatures on the ICON don't look as high as previous runs. Uppers around 20'C instead of the 24'C on previous runs.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Aaand gfs does the same pushes things west and also heat just sticks around into friday!!really bog uppgrades in the last 18 hours or so!!

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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted

by midnight Friday .. the hotter uppers seem to be 30-40miles Westwards compared to the last run. 
Quite a large difference.. 

If it keeps going the Low Pressure won't even make it.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

GFS goes for 36C (or 38C?) over London on Thursday...

image.thumb.png.ddfda0a0d4063cfce74d8d4152202814.png

also 40C over parts of rural Belgium, must be that darned severe population density urban heat effect and not the African heat source.

 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

If enough wimps turn on their a/c units, and set them to 'max', we might even squeeze another 0.1C from this situation?:oldgrin:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

GFS goes for 36C (or 38C?) over London on Thursday...

image.thumb.png.ddfda0a0d4063cfce74d8d4152202814.png

also 40C over parts of rural Belgium, must be that darned severe population density urban heat effect and not the African heat source.

 

Not sure if it’s just my eyes, but that seems to show 38c over London. 

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ancientsolar Community Regular

ancientsolar

Posted
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
  • Location: Blackwood SE Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, danm said:

Not sure if it’s just my eyes, but that seems to show 38c over London. 

Given that it's purple, and purple represents 38

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Just astonishing, the Gfs 12z operational shows a minimum temp of 24c 75f for London on wednesday night and then 36c 97f on thursday but there is a small patch where 37/38c 99/100f is possible!!!..the intense heat and humidity then generates some big storms moving north...Friday still looks very warm / hot further s / e where 30-31c is possible...phew what a week..delighted to see the heat lasting longer with each run!!!

12_78_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.e1d3bc7cc2667059c403d6ae03941d31.png12_78_mslp850.thumb.png.7bf90ba6dec223732c514ba145cf8e61.png12_78_ukthickness850.thumb.png.165fe8edd655dad6f9cdc5ea6c14b7e8.png12_102_ukthickness850.thumb.png.c491aa7dbf9925f06f63ad08861f016c.png12_102_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.47c0b4851b094ee5743dd54e99a70312.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

The UKMO also looks further west .

Indeed if you compare yesterday’s 12hrs run forecast to T96 hrs and then to today’s for T72hrs you can see it’s a big shift .

 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

ARPEGE for Thursday (not yet updated in UK view) - look at the distribution of heat - 37C as a max but 36C in Birmingham, 34C in Manchester - looks a little ambitious compared with other output but this is the period when this model starts to trump the others...

arpege-31-78-0.png?22-17

 

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Mr Brown Explorer

Mr Brown

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ARPEGE for Thursday (not yet updated in UK view) - look at the distribution of heat - 37C as a max but 36C in Birmingham, 34C in Manchester - looks a little ambitious compared with other output but this is the period when this model starts to trump the others...

arpege-31-78-0.png?22-17

 

I’m guessing that 36C patch is London. It looks quite west though.

Edited by Mr Brown
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

I think what we’ve seen is a slight delay to the hottest 850s arriving on Thursday but a much wider area effected .

The UKMO is about a hundred miles further west with the 20c 850 value today then it was yesterday .

 

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Connor Bailey Degnan Community Regular

Connor Bailey Degnan

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
Posted

Based on all high res charts, including The king imo the UKV these are the likely maxes day by day

Tuesday 34c

Wednesday 36c

Thursday 39c

Friday 32c

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

The UKMO at T72 needs no explanation really, except that the heat is even further west on this.

UW72-7.GIF?22-18

One thing - I really don't think the SE can miss out now - there won't be an eastward shift large enough at this range - if anything, everything is being held back more and more.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

A slightly different point here, but the cold front now appears to stall across the Eastern side of the UK on Friday, so temperatures are no higher than were predicted under clearer skies (still mid to high twenties). Of course two things come from this, the threat of thunderstorms along that front Thursday night into Friday and indeed Saturday. The other would be that the front may never arrive in the east and fizzles out somewhere across the spine of the country. Not out of the question.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO also looks further west .

Indeed if you compare yesterday’s 12hrs run forecast to T96 hrs and then to today’s for T72hrs you can see it’s a big shift .

 

Yup, and now GFS attempting to bring the warm uppers back in through sunday :-D

Edited by northwestsnow
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Crazy upgrades and backing of the heat in earlier time frames!!didnt expect this much change at such a short time frame!!friday looks like its going to be another hot one for england with temps around 27 or 28!!!ukmo goes west at 72 hours and 96 hours!!!gona enjoy my 2 runs in the extreme heat and they both fall on 2 of the hottest days this week which is tuesday and thursday?

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