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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Doncaster
  • Location: Doncaster
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

... so, using usual adjustments of adding 3 degrees to the raw temps, the ECM 12Z suggests:

Monday 31C 

Tuesday 33C 

Wednesday 36C

Thursday 41C

I'm just saying what I see, honest!

but it will go to the wire I'm sure, can't rule out a late east shift

So using your theory of 2c + 3c +5c it would be over 60c by Monday then 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

25°C at 3am Wednesday morning?

149149890_viewimage(5).thumb.png.023101da548073363c157236e56f2ef0.png

It’s been mentioned that the overnight UK record has a chance of going midweek

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Sorry, 38c. The UKV has 38c, so that's ECM, EURO4 & UKV suggesting 38c is possible now on Thursday. 

Could.. could we be genuinely looking at hitting 40c? Add the usual 1-2c and we're there. Definitely a shift towards a record breaking day on Thursday by this afternoons runs.

Screenshot 2019-07-21 at 20.19.35.png

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15 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That's an odd temperature profile with places northwest of London being warmer. 

Indeed, no way Dorset and Wiltshire will be stuck at 24-25c if there’s even remotely sunny skies, 850s are still 16-20c here..

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Alderc said:

Indeed, no way Dorset and Wiltshire will be stuck at 24-25c if there’s even remotely sunny skies, 850s are still 16-20c here..

Cooler surface flow off of the Atlantic by that point on Thursday as the cold front begins to march eastwards, so it's certainly a plausible outcome.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Indeed, no way Dorset and Wiltshire will be stuck at 24-25c if there’s even remotely sunny skies, 850s are still 16-20c here..

As Dan mentioned above.

The UKV shows 12 - 16 degree uppers by then, with a South Westerly influence. Likely to be more cloud around for our neck of the woods.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s been mentioned that the overnight UK record has a chance of going midweek

Right over me. Brilliant. Isn’t the highest overnight min record 23.9oC - Brighton in 1990? 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

... so, using usual adjustments of adding 3 degrees to the raw temps, the ECM 12Z suggests:

Monday 31C 

Tuesday 33C 

Wednesday 36C

Thursday 41C

I'm just saying what I see, honest!

but it will go to the wire I'm sure, can't rule out a late east shift

Worth noting that during the last hot shot the air profile above the surface easterly would be suggestive of 41-42c at it's peak if the airflow came from a better direction at the surface rather than the north sea. Even with just 12hrs we managed a solid 34c.

So as mad as it sounds, if we do get a good alignment, that's not impossible!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Just to take the heat out of all the talk of the upcoming heat... If you get me drift ecm mean not to bad... Looks like its ending well also... Positive signs as we head into August. 

EDM1-96.gif

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

graphe_ens3.png

graphe_ens3 (1).png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
39 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Sorry, 38c. The UKV has 38c, so that's ECM, EURO4 & UKV suggesting 38c is possible now on Thursday. 

Could.. could we be genuinely looking at hitting 40c? Add the usual 1-2c and we're there. Definitely a shift towards a record breaking day on Thursday by this afternoons runs.

Screenshot 2019-07-21 at 20.19.35.png

Sorry just out of curiosity do you have the ukv temperature maps for tuesday and wednesday?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
39 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s been mentioned that the overnight UK record has a chance of going midweek

Evening ! Very surprised it didn't go donkeys years ago, I think the lowest night uk temp was around 23c, back in the 1930s 40s in London!  Its about time that record was beaten especially given the concrete tarmac and building a bigger ever London and of course the antropegnic warming.! Anyway looking forward to some Violent thunderstorms on Tuesday /Wednesday after a very warm evening..we are certainly due a few ! I will be staying in the pop up tent  with my Brindle at the bottom of my garden. .looking forward to the next round of thunderstorms by Thursday,  after that it looks like the Atlantic is in control.

ukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

Interestingly the ECM mean still has the +15C isotherm over eastern areas on saturday morning (just abouts)...

image.thumb.png.a2e5636b731d3cd0ca8a7180f90ce6eb.png

Just goes to show how sluggish it is to clear the heat away... edit... oops sorry that is the OP not the mean and its the 00z... Doh!

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Wind chill temperatures on Thursday based on Netwx-MR feeling dangerously hot

 

jsjsj.png

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan
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Scattered overnight thunderstorms Tuesday night across SW England & Wales quickly clearing the very warm, sultry air away by Wednesday morning leaving a fresher feeling day but still pleasantly warm (high teens / low 20's) and perhaps most importantly, turning drier again under a weak ridge, still hot & humid further east with a continuing risk of thunderstorms breaking out

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s going to be a battle between the storm lovers and heat lovers .

Any chance of a UK record needs the storms to stay away for the favoured heat areas .

Normally in the UK it’s a few hot days then a thunderstorm then cooler .

This time it’s hot then possible storms then hotter . It would be a shame to have a possible record hit the buffers because of some storms .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Wind chill temperatures on Thursday based on Netwx-MR feeling dangerously hot

 

jsjsj.png

Not sure how that works? Windchill is technically only used for temperatures below 10°C with a wind speed of at least 3mph.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Almost a full house of ensembles getting the 20C uppers line to London on Thursday 

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=0&y=0&run=12&vi

which shows the ECM getting pretty confident about this. 

Bearing in mind we've seen uppers of just 18C with an all level continental flow produce 36C and 37C at this time of year (summers of 1990, 2006 for example), it's starting to look like the only thing preventing an all time top 5 temperature will be cloud or thunder. A late east shift will now need to be pretty dramatic to clear the heat completely from the SE (though I'm sure such shifts have happened before!). 

As for the chances of the all-time record and 40C - we're clearly in the game but don't think it will be wise to forecast this until the final 24 hours - everything will have to fall perfect. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The hottest temps on Thu will be where the flow stays off the near-continent into the afternoon.

I was a bit surprised to find that this only happens east of Southampton on the ECM 12z; the SLP charts suggested otherwise, but it turns out the sea breeze effect become so strong that winds in the Channel turn to westerly by 3 pm, such that it no longer matters that the flow stays southerly as far west as Weymouth.


I think the setup of the ECM & FV3 12z runs may be the one that maximises the peak UK temp, due to delivering a direct flow from the hottest parts of France to the locations most capable of being UK hot spots due to topography or an urban heat island.

If the low adjusts further south in future runs and the flow turns more toward the SE, then there'd likely be a wider area reaching 30-34*C, but the UK peak temp could end up slightly lower due to the flow being from not quite the hottest part of W. Europe and crossing a bit more of the N Sea on approach to London for example.


Just thought it worth flagging up this possible concern for UK record-hopers, given the trend of today to stretch further southward the trough into which the low is heading, to help maintain level heads. Or something like that .

I suppose that outcome could be turned around again if the low adjusted so far south that it got stuck to our SW or S and set up another roasting day on Fri with even more day-to-day heat build, but that'd be an unusually large shift considering what's now a pretty narrow model spread for Wed-Thu. So, a bit of a long shot! I'd be astounded... and yet, I'm not going to rule it out!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

The hottest temps on Thu will be where the flow stays off the near-continent into the afternoon.

1675954960_viewimage(7).thumb.png.a27edeb838db4b948147a7999f5580f3.png

I think that sums it up quite nicely?!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not sure how that works? Windchill is technically only used for temperatures below 10°C with a wind speed of at least 3mph.

My mistake, sorry.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Well I type this as torrential rain pours down outside with winds gusting to 35mph - feels like a late September night! 

Temperatures here are forecast to go no higher than mid 20’s (I am near the West coast of Scotland ) but there is a chance of thunderstorms also so I can’t really complain! (Latest GFS for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday)

F7308F12-AF0F-45F2-8EF5-7FDE561CA487.thumb.png.3a4aef76b0704f307254f21b27515fb3.pngEA467ECF-A102-4AA4-A584-8F4797025C64.thumb.png.6f0abd65ad56a9c72b1b4f22217a90c7.png

88C3E4D5-F70A-4D6A-B2DD-0E3BC999CF67.thumb.png.69e78f257fd38b3f41cd5f599716a634.png

On a side note being a big lover of weather extremes I am really looking forward to seeing how high the temperatures go down South - extremely jealous of you all! 

Once again it has been a fascinating read in here today - these plumes always deliver great discussion from all members. (Those who prefer hot or cool Summers) 

Have a good night all!!

Thanks for being still able to put a positive spin on things, considering how bad your weather is right now David.... Here's hoping you get a big improvement before much longer... I will leave you with a current radar image... And yes its rather poor,and for much of tomorrow.. Hopefully you get something better soon after mate. 

xx_model-en-330-0_modez_2019072112_9_18_155.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

The hottest temps on Thu will be where the flow stays off the near-continent into the afternoon.

I was a bit surprised to find that this only happens east of Southampton on the ECM 12z; the SLP charts suggested otherwise, but it turns out the sea breeze effect become so strong that winds in the Channel turn to westerly by 3 pm, such that it no longer matters that the flow stays southerly as far west as Weymouth.


I think the setup of the ECM & FV3 12z runs may be the one that maximises the peak UK temp, due to delivering a direct flow from the hottest parts of France to the locations most capable of being UK hot spots due to topography or an urban heat island.

If the low adjusts further south in future runs and the flow turns more toward the SE, then there'd likely be a wider area reaching 30-34*C, but the UK peak temp could end up slightly lower due to the flow being from not quite the hottest part of W. Europe and crossing a bit more of the N Sea on approach to London for example.


Just thought it worth flagging up this possible concern for UK record-hopers, given the trend of today to stretch further southward the trough into which the low is heading, to help maintain level heads. Or something like that .

I suppose that outcome could be turned around again if the low adjusted so far south that it got stuck to our SW or S and set up another roasting day on Fri with even more day-to-day heat build, but that'd be an unusually large shift considering what's now a pretty narrow model spread for Wed-Thu. So, a bit of a long shot! I'd be astounded... and yet, I'm not going to rule it out!

Agreed with all of that, WZ seems to have updated to show the right charts with regards to the ensembles. Still some uncertainty with the SLP out west so perhaps a chance Friday could still see heat...

image.thumb.png.9193ff0f935849d08f8af3488c7e9cc9.png

Though I think its the less likely option for now.

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