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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Definitely a slight delay in the change from hot and humid to cooler and fresher in today's GEFS compared to the very progressive runs yesterday..happy to say it looks like Thursday will be hot for many now looking at the 12z mean..could it improve further?!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Very South London
  • Location: Very South London

ECM looks to be marginally west at T96, although hard to do direct comparisons due to the 12 hour difference.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
43 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I think he is referring to Leeds weather centre. It used to be located near the city centre & frequently breached 30C. If Manchester city centre had an official weather station it would be the same I'd imagine given the UHI but there isn't one. Having said that didn't Hulme library used to have a weather station on it's roof? Pretty sure it did & that is close to the city centre. Sorry mods a bit off topic.

Probably right about the city centre, but at Manchester Airport 30C hasn't been an annual thing historically- the last 6 years it has but there were several barren years between 2006 and 2013- I don't think it quite reached 30C in that brief June 2011 hot spell?

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Just to take a look at some of the models take on the heat at 96hrs....and a quick mention that the Ecm 12z has corrected the heat quite a bit further West than its 0z run.... Surely a good sign. 

So the charts are ECM

GFS

UKMO

ICON

GEM

ECM0-96.gif

gfs-1-96.png

UW96-7.gif

icon-1-96.png

gem-1-96.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

The GEFS 12Z ensembles are...not really all that different to the last ones, really...

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

So, nae bad!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

My god..

ggg.thumb.gif.f3283dbaebd1b602982fea0718e877b2.gif

The August 2003 record came off 850s just scraping 20c . That had a lengthy hot spell beforehand but still if an area can avoid any of those possible storms , and if it can stay sunny it could be close .

Four days out though still a lot can change.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM day 4

850s approaching 24C reaching the SE, surface winds coming straight from France where temperatures will be reaching in excess of 40C (even close to the coast),

ECU0-96.GIF?21-0   ECU1-96.GIF?21-0

This has got to be close to record breaking.

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Posted
  • Location: Very South London
  • Location: Very South London

The difference between the midday charts for Thursday and Friday sure are stark! Uppers drop from 23c to as low as 9/10c in the South East.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM day 4

850s approaching 24C reaching the SE, surface winds coming straight from France where temperatures will be reaching in excess of 40C (even close to the coast),

ECU0-96.GIF?21-0   ECU1-96.GIF?21-0

This has got to be close to record breaking.

Problem is those precip spikes on the GEFS.  Without that and the run in being very warm to hot and dry till Thursday it would have been a decent chance . 

Not sure even with those 850s that it can overcome some heavy showers  the day before , its crucial to have bone dry ground to hit those records .

Hopefully some areas will avoid those .

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Problem is those precip spikes on the GEFS.  Without that and the run in being very warm to hot and dry till Thursday it would have been a decent chance . 

Not sure even with those 850s that it can overcome some heavy showers  the day before , its crucial to have bone dry ground to hit those records .

Hopefully some areas will avoid those .

Those showers will hopefully be very sporadic.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Those showers will hopefully be very sporadic.

They aren’t forecast to be completely widespread at the mo....some places won’t see them in the SE, for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational Thursday would be very hot and humid, Friday would still be very warm further east, there's no dramatic drop in temperatures to cool levels, it still looks warm after the main heat clears to the east..anyway, i'm just happy that thursday still looks a scorcher!!.

96_thickuk.thumb.png.ee49da4c10bce4dbf8c5b6c898f7850f.png96_mslp850.thumb.png.6136220b71e25d6ecf95e5aa33aeacba.png96_thick.thumb.png.8b73bd9a4704fc07c47493e19757b1a1.png120_thickuk.thumb.png.9d9a0b17873a8615e70e5102c26b2c7a.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Those showers will hopefully be very sporadic.

Let’s hope so . The set up is almost perfect minus those .

Wind direction and some baking temps over much of France . Meteo France have just issued a weather warning here .

Temps 36 to 40 with some locations a few degrees higher. The intense heat then spreading ne towards northern France . 

Hottest I’ve ever recorded here is 40c , remarkably coming at the end of August , aided by a fohn effect .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ridiculous temps for central and eastern england shown on ecm for thursday!!!between 32 and 37 degrees!!thats dangerous!!

Yesterday it looked like thursday would be turning cooler and fresher from the west and to me it now feels like a real bonus to still be very hot for an extra day at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

There's a raw temperature of THIRTY EIGHT just to the east of London for Thursday on the ECM 12Z

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/temperature/20190725-1500z.html

Certainly achievable in that set up - providing it doesn’t pour with rain at some point on Thursday and soak the ground. I reckon the E and SE corner will escape most of the instability anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

... so, using usual adjustments of adding 3 degrees to the raw temps, the ECM 12Z suggests:

Monday 31C 

Tuesday 33C 

Wednesday 36C

Thursday 41C

I'm just saying what I see, honest!

but it will go to the wire I'm sure, can't rule out a late east shift

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The UKV has a 37!!!

UKV.thumb.png.1b0fea032386d3a3a28a0b3649c5ed18.png

That's an odd temperature profile with places northwest of London being warmer. 

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