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Paul

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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16 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Some more good news: once the heat gets blown away, the GEFS 06Z operational keeps T850s somewhere close to 10C, providing for 2m maxes of between 23 and 25C...So, nae a bad outlook at all?:yahoo:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Pretty similar to the ECM extended Pete.... Only real difference being the gfs had the mean around 7.5c as opposed to the 9.2c from ECM. The pressure was very similar. Also worth nothing was the Ecm had a good 60/70 of members going above the 9.2c mean.... So not bad at all my friend ??

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The ICON is pretty toasty for the South East on Thursday. Particularly across Kent.

Untitled.png

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A better chance this time of 36C + temps across the se .

Several days of heat and dry conditions beforehand , the last time there was that upper pool of cooler air which hang around suppressed temps so it really turned out to be a one day affair .

Thursday is looking a bit messy at the moment because the behaviour of the low to the west could still change at this timeframe .

Temps across northern France are expected to hit 40c especially around the Paris area so definitely there’s the heat there to draw on .

Edited by nick sussex
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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A better chance this time of 36C + temps across the se .

Several days of heat and dry conditions beforehand , the last time there was that upper pool of cooler air which hang around suppressed temps so it really turned out to be a one day affair .

Thursday is looking a bit messy at the moment because the behaviour of the low to the west could still change at this timeframe .

Temps across northern France are expected to hit 40c especially around the Paris area so definitely there’s the heat there to draw on .

Agree Nick, at the end of June as you say we had several days of cool surface winds off the North Sea and the highest 850 temps didn’t arrive here in the SE until the Saturday of that week. Even then we still achieved 34c. Seems we have a much better chance of exceeding that this week due to all of the factors you’ve mentioned. 

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Hello I'm back ?

Interesting forecasts at the moment that is for sure. I think we can be certain that by Saturday we will be back in cooler air but a hot week before then. Wednesday I feel may see a cooler reprieve if more showers / storms however the GFS shows it as being a dry day for now.

Solid consensus that Thursday will see the peak of the heat however that low to the SW may still shunt the really hot air further east. I don't think it will though and this time tomorrow I think we will know for sure how the week is going to pan out.

ECM delays the cooler air further so still a lot to be resolved! The low to our SW is key to this, I don't think it is being deepened too much by the models though given the very hot air over Western Europe and cooler air digging in a short distance away.

 

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

Agree Nick, at the end of June as you say we had several days of cool surface winds off the North Sea and the highest 850 temps didn’t arrive here in the SE until the Saturday of that week. Even then we still achieved 34c. Seems we have a much better chance of exceeding that this week due to all of the factors you’ve mentioned. 

Yes critical you get a few days of heat and dry conditions beforehand . So 36c can easily happen in the current set up . 

If the low to west can hold back a bit more that would also help .

All to play for if you like the heat !

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

Sorry I've just come in but you keep referring to this low. What type of LPs do you mean and is the 'common occurrence' based on some personal research or are you quoting? I'm not nit picking but peeps on here often make statements of a similar nature with no reference or any attempt to explain why. I just feel this has the potential to mislead people who perhaps don't possess your expertise.

I personally find nothing odd about the fax chart for Thursday albeit it might be adjusted today

PPVO89.thumb.gif.c0ffadbc39fde6f5843be86a7f44adf0.gif

 

I think this idea comes from winter observations - if the GFS has a winter storm developing in the jet stream forecast to be, say, 970mb, 8 out of 10 times it will be 980mb when it arrives. The ECM sometimes does this too but the GFS is the worst offender. 

I take note because I like chasing hurricane force predicted storms - so often the GFS has promised such a storm at T96/T120, so often it fails to deliver. 

The incoming low for Thursday looks very much like these storms that would commonly get downgraded in winter. 

However, maybe the upgrade to FV3 will have mitigated this? Also, the UKMO I find less likely to get this wrong, and it also has a reasonable low this week? So perhaps not so straightforward. 

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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

30deg at 9am next thur in the SE , thats really insane heat .

image.thumb.png.635a75356fa9c76e9fd460276f35b86f.png

 

That is 09z which is 10.00am BST - still pretty toasty mind !

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1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:

That is 09z which is 10.00am BST - still pretty toasty mind !

Hi chapmansslade 

do you think we will get any big storms in our part of the world this week looking at those charts? 

 

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46 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think this idea comes from winter observations - if the GFS has a winter storm developing in the jet stream forecast to be, say, 970mb, 8 out of 10 times it will be 980mb when it arrives. The ECM sometimes does this too but the GFS is the worst offender. 

I take note because I like chasing hurricane force predicted storms - so often the GFS has promised such a storm at T96/T120, so often it fails to deliver. 

The incoming low for Thursday looks very much like these storms that would commonly get downgraded in winter. 

However, maybe the upgrade to FV3 will have mitigated this? Also, the UKMO I find less likely to get this wrong, and it also has a reasonable low this week? So perhaps not so straightforward. 

And one has to also include, why at the same time the senior forecasters at Exeter are also wrong. And this is a low under a developing upper trough which the models are having a problem pinning down.  In any case the situation may change.

But just  make sure there is no misunderstanding.here  Mine was merely a polite inquiry for clarification of a comment which I did not understand, And still don't.

Edited by knocker

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

And one has to also include, why at the same time the senior forecasters at Exeter are also wrong. And this is a low under a developing upper trough which the models are having a problem pinning down.  In any case the situation may change.

But just  make sure there is no misunderstanding.here  Mine was merely a polite inquiry for clarification of a comment which I did not understand, And still don't.

Man With Beard’s reply was pretty much what I was thinking.

Also, the fax charts are often taken directly from the raw UKMO output. So if that model is overdoing the LP, it may be that Exeter are too.

Knocker I took your post in the way that you intended, so no worries there.

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5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Probably because it’s a largely south east affair. Here in Leeds temperatures will be around 30C on Tuesday and Wednesday which is hot but happens most years and is therefore not spectacular.

Pretty sure on average over the last 15 years 30C is not an every year thing in Leeds- it's at the very least noteworthy for the northern half of England. 

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So to the 12s then, and it has pretty much come to the crunch now.  How long will the really hot uppers hold over the UK?  6z output seemed to extend it well into Thursday for the SE, but could we see a further shift west on the upcoming output.    We will see....

First out ICON, here at T72:

image.thumb.jpg.f9f04206187a4bfe335b6c84fdf70464.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bbc5cdf908ac59a8e678a07dcb83a84e.jpg

Looks like the heat is sliding away, but as I noted re the GFS 6z (I think) a second wave is introduced, and it's the same here, T102:

image.thumb.jpg.d646f6e547291c2c6e9bfe977b04770e.jpg

But that's just the ICON.

The other thing that will come into play as we try to predict maximums etc will be things like cloud cover, thunderstorms, it isn't going to easy to get this right in my opinion.  Fascinating model watching...

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

So to the 12s then, and it has pretty much come to the crunch now.  How long will the really hot uppers hold over the UK?  6z output seemed to extend it well into Thursday for the SE, but could we see a further shift west on the upcoming output.    We will see....

First out ICON, here at T72:

image.thumb.jpg.f9f04206187a4bfe335b6c84fdf70464.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.bbc5cdf908ac59a8e678a07dcb83a84e.jpg

Looks like the heat is sliding away, but as I noted re the GFS 6z (I think) a second wave is introduced, and it's the same here, T102:

image.thumb.jpg.d646f6e547291c2c6e9bfe977b04770e.jpg

But that's just the ICON.

The other thing that will come into play as we try to predict maximums etc will be things like cloud cover, thunderstorms, it isn't going to easy to get this right in my opinion.  Fascinating model watching...

Sticks to its guns from the 06z which is fantastic!!westward correction made after the 00z run this morning!

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Icon is digging the upper trough to n Iberia day 5 .....the low heading east across the Atlantic  is more defined than the 00z run.....we could see the Azores ridging in on this run and cutting off the upper trough over Iberia .....

more variations on the theme ......

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The ICON 12z follows the 6z with a second pulse of heat pushing up the eastern side of the uk during thursday, so we get an initial pulse of heat between tues / wed which pushes off to the east and then another which sweeps right up the East side of the uk even reaching the far NE...hottest week of the summer so far coming up!!??

Edited by Jon Snow
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11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Sticks to its guns from the 06z which is fantastic!!westward correction made after the 00z run this morning!

Yes looks like an ICON 'hold' in that constituency,  and agree with @bluearmy with regards to the later evolution, very happy with this post the fun and games at T162:

image.thumb.jpg.e918a89ef97cd7f9a1ea6e635cd04ea7.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

Very hot in the east on Thursday from the 12z Arpege.

15B12715-A820-4E79-89E8-5472596DC502.png

I think Thursday is our best shot at any records, with a south east flow and record breaking heat over Northern France. Although I think the actual chances of breaking records are slim.

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21 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I think Thursday is our best shot at any records, with a south east flow and record breaking heat over Northern France. Although I think the actual chances of breaking records are slim.

All depends on sunshine amounts, think I'm right in saying Tuesday will be the sunniest day during the week ahead nationwide..thunderstorms overnight tues into wed morning further w / n followed by more hot sunshine from the south...Thursday the hottest most humid day of the week with a risk of T-Storms breaking out ahead of the cold front bringing a band of thundery rain slowly from the west reaching the east later.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Is it me or is gfs even further west by a long way at 78 hours??!!

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GFS, FV3 and legacy, at T96:

image.thumb.jpg.96e6c27c41696cdb88169a9ef1824eed.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8d2691c5609516ab991deaa260f69ea0.jpg

FV3 in particular pushing the heat plume back west, this is knife edge stuff not only in terms of weather records, but also in terms of what we will get in different parts of the country.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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The 2nd plume of heat hitting quite a large area come Thursday.... Now if sunshine amounts play ball, we could be about to see some records fall. 

gfs-1-90.png

gfs-1-96.png

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is it me or is gfs even further west by a long way at 78 hours??!!

It’s not just you!

gfs-1-102_cmi6.png

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is it me or is gfs even further west by a long way at 78 hours??!!

Courtesy of the upper trough dug further south as per icon  .......ukmo and gem within half an hour 

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