Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[knocker]

And the gfs stll has Dorian not making a Florida landfall but there is still uncertainty about the track

[Snowy Hibbo]

In terms of the 2019-20 Winter Outlook, so the countdown begins:
https://longrangesnowcenter.net/201...-seasonal-2019-20-winter-preliminary-outlook/
 

Some ideas here:

A strong winter Aleutian low

A +NAO favoured by models and Greenland ice cover.

Perhaps some -EPO blocking

A warm neutral ENSO state.

A good outlook for Japan, Northern Alps and Western North America

An opportunity at a decent winter for the Eastern US, per some indicators.

And probably a wetter and more mild winter for the UK. That said, there is a good environment for SSWs, so we might see more -NAO like conditions later in the winter

 

As for Dorian, per the UKMO and EC, it should move up the coast, rake the East Coast, Georgia, SC and NC. Gets quite close to the Carolinas on both models. And quite deep too.

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean / perturbations longer term there are signs of sustained settled and warmer weather..fingers crossed!.

Edited September 1, 2019 by JON SNOW

[Polar Maritime]

A new thread coming up so please hold off posting for a few minutes.

Thanks.

[knocker]

deleted

 

 

Edited September 1, 2019 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Ok new thread here. Locking this one now.

 

Edited September 1, 2019 by Polar Maritime