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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Not so sure about the long term direction of our weather.... Definitely signs of more unsettled later next week and weekend, especially NW areas. Drier conditions more likely further SE. Beyond that perhaps some signs of further settled and warmer conditions. The extended ecm mean out to day 14 shows the mean around 5c,but there is a huge amount of scatter, and runs going well above this!! The SLP mean is close to a 1019mb come the 2nd week of September!! So perhaps signs of another warmer and settled spell towards mid month. Back to the hear and now... Currently 32c in a few locations... That's quite something for a Bank Holiday!!! More of the same tomorrow.... Enjoy it folks

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Quick question!is this now the hottest bank holiday ever?

Yes shaky the 31.6c reached at Heathrow, makes it the hottest on record. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes shaky the 31.6c reached at Heathrow, makes it the hottest on record. 

Cant believe it thats 2 massive records broken in this average summer!!had the best summer ever last year and even then we could not beat records like we have done this summer!!really weird!!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, shaky said:

Cant believe it thats 2 massive records broken in this average summer!!had the best summer ever last year and even then we could not beat records like we have done this summer!!really weird!!

Pretty amazing shaky, for a good many the summer of 2109 has been average at best... Compared to last year, where we had relentless heat and sunshine... It probably is!! But 2 records have been broken this year, firstly the July heat beating the all time maximum..... Now we have the hottest Bank Holiday period ever!!!! Coupled with the record breaking spell of February, or close to it for heat.... Pretty amazing year, all after  one of the worst starts to june ever!!! Hopefully more records to go later this year..... Namely cold!!!!! Well we can hope can't we!

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes shaky the 31.6c reached at Heathrow, makes it the hottest on record. 

Now 33.1c,so the record shattered easily.

No doubt now that the all time Late August Bank holiday Monday record will go too.

Models have backed away from any sort of cool down in the East for Monday and Tuesday.

Also last year,despite the amazing Summer overall much of August went right off the boil,nothing like we have now.

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 12Zs are nae bad...still plenty of warmish weather to come.:oldgood:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

There is some rubbish in there too though...to be fair.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

Chalk and cheese comes to mind with regards the latter frames of the 12z Ecm compared to the 00z which was looking very autumnal indeed. Surely must call into question how much credence one can give to the latest outlook, especially beyond next weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
44 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Chalk and cheese comes to mind with regards the latter frames of the 12z Ecm compared to the 00z which was looking very autumnal indeed. Surely must call into question how much credence one can give to the latest outlook, especially beyond next weekend.

The op sits pretty well within the ensemble pack tho . So it’s not an outlier and there’s quite a few cooler runs in there . 

95ABCDD8-AD57-4E71-9C67-54434FF12E13.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Today's GEFS 00Z ensembles are also 'trending' toward a cooler outlook, as HP becomes centred more to our west...?

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

T+324 h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
18 hours ago, shaky said:

Cant believe it thats 2 massive records broken in this average summer!!had the best summer ever last year and even then we could not beat records like we have done this summer!!really weird!!

last years summer way better though, I'm not bothered about records

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Seems to be getting to that time of year in the models where that excitement of cooler and chillier weather slowly starts to creep in for a few, especially if it’s from the North-West or North.

In the meantime, some further warm or very warm weather to continue for next few days, with the best of the settled and warmest conditions clinging onto the South-East and generally cooler and breezier further North-West. But even South-Eastern areas could see a few showers (some of which could be thundery) at times. 

8F25CF75-1377-4EF3-A62D-32D26D9242A8.thumb.png.f3aaa495119807bd629c56ab3dc8341f.pngF7904810-4C85-41D0-BA73-7567185D0FE8.thumb.png.35b360444e8bc80de228b1451a3c4d77.png05362F5F-252D-4156-A4FA-5EA69C0F1A54.thumb.png.6faf59f5e6b74b1d9edd958d8b81c535.pngD6E04947-96D6-4D26-81D0-DA032D01E855.thumb.png.65a92f0dfbeb9574d437a336e2716f39.png227EA278-1373-403F-AE4E-9E774CCAB283.thumb.png.c96ab899244157e72ff4968668e1fdb1.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Seems to be getting to that time of year in the models where that excitement of cooler and chillier weather slowly starts to creep in for a few, especially if it’s from the North-West or North.

In the meantime, some further warm or very warm weather to continue for next few days, with the best of the settled and warmest conditions clinging onto the South-East and generally cooler and breezier further North-West. But even South-Eastern areas could see a few showers (some of which could be thundery) at times. 

8F25CF75-1377-4EF3-A62D-32D26D9242A8.thumb.png.f3aaa495119807bd629c56ab3dc8341f.pngF7904810-4C85-41D0-BA73-7567185D0FE8.thumb.png.35b360444e8bc80de228b1451a3c4d77.png05362F5F-252D-4156-A4FA-5EA69C0F1A54.thumb.png.6faf59f5e6b74b1d9edd958d8b81c535.pngD6E04947-96D6-4D26-81D0-DA032D01E855.thumb.png.65a92f0dfbeb9574d437a336e2716f39.png227EA278-1373-403F-AE4E-9E774CCAB283.thumb.png.c96ab899244157e72ff4968668e1fdb1.png

 

Agreed, but with Dorian having sprung up and heading towards the Leeward Island then if it survives Florida, this will change the complexity of the Atlantic going forward possibly. At the moment, it's all looking very normal almost benine, but if the tropics do fire up, then expect some changes going forward. September is always my favourite model watching period for the first impact of Hurricanes both surface wise and Jet Stream.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well the 6z bar a couple of days is literally a write off! Much cooler, much more unsettled out to mid month. I'm pretty sure the big boys and long range models had been talking about settled and warm  conditions moving into September for quite some time, now in the last few days it all seems to have changed! What's the odds on the 4th consecutive month being mixed to start, before increasingly warmer and settled conditions take hold for the final 3rd!!! I wouldn't rule it out. Anyhow, it's been a blast this summer, a bit of everything.... I'm not gonna complain, and I'm quite content for the winter countdown to resume very shortly. Should be a fun 6 months or so!!! Or nerve shredding.... But hey its the UK.... So expect the unexpected, and you won't be disappointed.... Enjoy your Bank Holidays. 

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-0-162.png

gfs-0-240.png

gfs-0-264.png

gfs-0-288.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

For quite a while it was looking at least changeable into September, before a temporary change to more settled charts, which have now reverted back to changeable conditions being shown.

Going forward it’ll be interesting to see how tropical storms play their part. Long benign spells in September tend be thanks to ridges being thrown up ahead of these lows. Then again, if the jet returns to where it was through mid August, it could be a recipe for further wet and windy spells.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I must agree with Matt, in that today's GEFS 06Z ensembles are not exactly spiffing...That said, were things to dramatically improve by this time tomorrow, it'd nae be the first-time this summer that dire-looking GFS runs have turned to dust...?:oldgood:Recall what happened to all those predictions of another 2012?

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Location: West London

I don't know models going around in circles, always ignore them. Last weekend 22nd-25th everyone was saying wet, windy I was in Eastbourne and it was only a few brief showers most of the rain was overnight and during breakfast only a little during the airshow which was more of a joke of a shower just kept trying to spit and nothing got in the way of fun. Plenty of sunshine on Thursday and Sunday that weekend and lots of cloud on Friday and Saturday but in terms of rain if it did happen it was few and far between albeit heavy, which I was in a museum at that time.

Temperature could have been warmer but as soon as the sun was out it improved so much so I even though slapped on the sun lotion still got burnt however the monday was very gusty and ive ended up the week with a cold.

 

hopefuly it will be somewhat mild start to september anything between 18-22c will be welcome and sunshine with little wind. BBC at the moment shows a stable run of dry weather for the period for where I'm heading perhaps the south is the key to escaping the general weather spoken about.

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Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
1 hour ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:

I don't know models going around in circles, always ignore them. Last weekend 22nd-25th everyone was saying wet, windy I was in Eastbourne and it was only a few brief showers most of the rain was overnight and during breakfast only a little during the airshow which was more of a joke of a shower just kept trying to spit and nothing got in the way of fun. Plenty of sunshine on Thursday and Sunday that weekend and lots of cloud on Friday and Saturday but in terms of rain if it did happen it was few and far between albeit heavy, which I was in a museum at that time.

Temperature could have been warmer but as soon as the sun was out it improved so much so I even though slapped on the sun lotion still got burnt however the monday was very gusty and ive ended up the week with a cold.

 

hopefuly it will be somewhat mild start to september anything between 18-22c will be welcome and sunshine with little wind. BBC at the moment shows a stable run of dry weather for the period for where I'm heading perhaps the south is the key to escaping the general weather spoken about.

will be keeping an eye on peoples views of the models, i am off to Burghley horse trials on the 7th Sept and Goodwood revival motor racing  weekend on the 12th-16th Sept, fingers crossed both events will be at least dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles. And they ain't pretty!

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Here are the GEFS 12Z ensembles. And they ain't pretty!

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Quite substantial divergence in the ensembles regarding pressure, with most staying above 1000hPa.  I'd suspect that explains the generally low ppn. spikes.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Still on course for something cooler (hardly difficult!) over the coming 16 days...according to today's GEFS 00Z ensembles. Proper sleep, here we come!:oldgood:

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Morning,

After all the heat of the last few days, we've got one more scorcher in the E/SE before it finally caves in tomorrow.

Beyond this - we have another attempt at the 435678394570956th Greenland high of the spring/summer 2019 season:

image.thumb.png.5b7dbe1618756252c36ad839644f5b34.png

Thankfully this looks like being a short lived affair, as pressure around this area and the N/Pole in general looks to rapidly fall:

image.thumb.png.191110d0d310132094ee1461890ab79e.png

Nothing too untoward for the UK. Low pressure flirting with the north, best of the conditions in the SE. Temperatures going to around average/slightly below through Sunday/early next week before slowly recovering.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

ECM 0z already showing that mid-Atlantic ridge flattening out, a few cooler days and then back to what we have been accustomed to on and off this summer (low pressure closer to Scotland) and some relatively humid Tm air to the south...

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