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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

This looks tasty. Very very tasty!:yahoo:

h850t850eu.png   h500slp.png

OH MY WORD!!! I've been avoiding the charts for a few weeks as I couldn't bare looking at the outlook! A scandi high will be just the tonic for the farmers ( and us)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

What sort of max temps would that give across the country?

I'd GUESS at between low 20sC in the North, to high 20s, maybe scraping 30, is the far SE? Though, should HP end-up being to our west, I'd take 3-4C off those temps...

It's all rather academic, at this stage, though.:unsure2:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean increasingly supports high pressure gradually taking control of our weather during late August, at least across southern uk and it looks like beyond day 10 would continue to improve, what's unusual is the mean looks even better than the operational longer term which is a good thing!...most importantly there's an end in sight to this very unsettled autumnal spell!!!

EDM1-168.thumb.gif.f222913287021534aebb0872c12f9360.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.921c40b32bc86eb4ea86deda2db3d1f1.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.556d0a3ab5d3acc739e0787f65058659.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.d0cfc0bae3cb7e0bbe8e7f21df984145.gif

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 06Z ensembles going for quite high, perhaps too high, T850s after Day 12.:unsure2:

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

So, not for the first time, summer 2019 looks like blindsiding the doom-mongers?:yahoo:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking at this morning's clusters 192-240 merely illustrates how tricky the detail for next weekend is at the moment. Of course one has to take a punt on the surface analysis but you wouldn't bet the farm on which airman will be the dominant feature as of now. The percentage play is a north south split but fine adjustments can swing things. For instance TCs in the Paacific impacting the North Pacific jet which could reverberate downstream.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081500_192.thumb.png.6c22de4dc5f4563790ec9c83ecabe0eb.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081500_216.thumb.png.adeab339915a0220c66a8a1070d95ac1.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019081500_240.thumb.png.f32547ce79c692161ebd0ce7fb2b5a6e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean indicates a BIG improvement is not far away..it could even last beyond the end of August!!

21_180_500mb.thumb.png.7bf6f9cc343893959dd5eae5b6781cba.png21_204_500mb.thumb.png.20071f39da1a7a77c07c98e699482eb4.png21_228_500mb.thumb.png.ec6cd737d730dcfc3da55e11f2a1b87a.png21_252_500mb.thumb.png.a764f49c9b3c3920551585491e26a3bc.png21_276_500mb.thumb.png.40f8da4234829fb484401ac54ed45aa1.png21_300_500mb.thumb.png.1f9fddb01a5a361afe20acebb2da4f46.png21_324_500mb.thumb.png.e80d0b5631e5651545ba94f3e9c09077.png6_366_500mb.thumb.png.dc0865e95847afde05b7e6142a909f1c.png20_366_500mb.thumb.png.de87913bbd46dd502ceddc69ed17ba0e.png20_372_850tmp.thumb.png.53b5f52279393e35f585e32f0023121a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

PPVA89.thumb.gif.1781cfbea1c5755f08a000d6c92d534b.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.83c2f0cc59d675b2c7f3de82fe9f8891.gifsat.thumb.JPG.b57805ac99ad94cd2767745789269124.JPG

The weekend low is readily visible on the midday sat image and rain from the initial warm front will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland by 20000 and track NE through Scotland over the next few hours. But the band of heavy rain from the main frontal system will arrive hot on its heals into the same areas by 0300  This will spread east with the heavy rain over NW England and west Wales by 0800 and will be accompanied by strengthening winds in western coastal regions.

precip_d02_14.thumb.png.49b96f6a06a6e5c25ab32a1a1422a2de.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.d6909182c8902e00c1b88882ace7b244.pngprecip_d02_20.thumb.png.6d3d66ddef0d9793d064548a0eee6421.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.c0018ce420fc299f2e8ca7a2e3da8fca.pngprecip_d02_26.thumb.png.d3073f510bc35721ad01d944c42256ad.pngsfcgust_d02_26.thumb.png.8cff6c403e21170c0e261daf0519e2f0.png

Front already noticeable on the Valentia sounding

2019081512.03953.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.798bbe78af35e9b2897f81e87738f10e.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Absolute dire day tomorrow, looks like heavy rain for much of the day for a good chunk of England and Wales. From next Tuesday the showers should increasingly become confined to the NW, as pressure builds from the SW... This is potentially a spell that could expand well into September, even Northern areas improving... The EC46 had been suggesting this for a while and now it appears Exeter are on board with a lengthy settled spell.... So very good signs beyond this weekend. How warm is still open for debate, depends on where high pressure locates!! But folks... If warm sunny days and cool misty nights are the order of the day for a 10-14 day period.... Then bring it on I say.. 

xx_model-en-330-0_modgbrhd_2019081506_29_18_155.png

xx_model-en-330-0_modgbrhd_2019081506_35_18_155.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I certainly can't see much evidence of retrogression of any high pressure next week as some members have been going on about. In fact pressure looks like lowering considerably over Greenland if the GFS 12Z is to be believed. Temperatures gradually increasing and definitely rising above the average for the time of year for most of us.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And so on

Mid Atlantic trough jet running south of it suppressing subtropical high amplification; N/S split and tricky detail yet to be resolved

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6734400.thumb.png.d1af86b42363e0f06e5602be42cf9f02.pngjet.thumb.png.7be3d802515e1d40ae0f22789d984f18.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6734400.thumb.png.47e3b067cc56ed887cc3efb3b9569979.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational gives us the perfect end to august / meteorological summer!

12_360_mslp500.thumb.png.bdafb642e7e589819e06abdd9d91bec0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not a bad 12Z at all: h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png:oldgood:

And the ensembles are nae bad, either!

prmslLondon.png   t850London.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

  image.thumb.png.3600cacf62c383cf1be6b270a22a20ea.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

A very good end to the Ecm 12z operational going forward..becoming warmer with a strong anticyclone building in!

There's actually some decent weather before then, especially further south, certainly an improvement on the way compared to this week!.

1348391797_240_mslp500(1).thumb.png.93e62378d8fff309b69ecc3e22e6e3d9.png240_thickuk.thumb.png.ee3dac49d947a003bb2048a5bd588396.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here's an initially very poor mean gradually transforming into a good / very good mean, at least across southern uk from tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, I'm really encouraged about prospects for late August / early September !!..

EDM1-48.thumb.gif.0395985af14ddded789b21b2b0a787fb.gifEDM1-96.thumb.gif.a3f953de277630e4cf76a94454d6ad88.gifEDM1-120.thumb.gif.3d0b4b47a3e9855a7fca270b65cec622.gifEDM1-144.thumb.gif.f779dac392fb1e699bcf0038c1f3ef65.gifEDM1-192.thumb.gif.042b8c216fe307a97995f0ccb83edc73.gifEDM1-216.thumb.gif.f3fe9ebed3c8fb7aa769d558fd1a82e3.gifEDM1-240.thumb.gif.303738f7a99b6ee4d404e5265b9e0bd7.gif

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Aye Jon, this time tomorrow, 384 chart will be my b'day!, but todays is last day of Aug, at least looks dry to end Aug

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

There appears to be a lot going on upstream with tonight's outputs with intense Aleutian lows and TPV in the western Arctic resulting in the settled warm spell not looking quite so nailed on this evening. There is no particular agreement with the anomalies but the GEFS and EPS have both backtracked This is not to say the weather will not show a marked improvement and at the moment merely something to keep an eye on

9-14.thumb.png.323d55acad7d3e0033312135ce3f98df.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7080000.thumb.png.a4f7ad97bf3297c6da0c10d036076d8f.png814day_03.thumb.gif.f2eb2c6d26872bcbf75ea295f6aa5953.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

18z is a very funny run, it puts a high to the east and west of us and then shapes the lows in such a way as to do everything possible to keep pressure over the UK low(ish). Even when it builds pressure it parks a tiny little upper weakness over the south east. 

Not a chance of occurring but very funny.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The EC46 tonight shows a strong build in pressure next week, perhaps this high pressure remaining a tad to our West.... Moving towards Bank Holiday it's so far so good! Further into September shows pressure building at times towards the SW, but towards mid month, pressure does fall at times, especially further W/NW... Precipitation amounts in more Western and Northwest areas does become quite high at times as well!! This is all along way off and subject to much change though.... Will be interesting to see if Exeter remain with there high pressure dominating start to September, or we see  a gradual re wording to more unsettled especially further NW.... Tonight's run to me looks like a classic NW/SE split devoloping, and perhaps more widely unsettled the further we move into the month!!! So let's just wait and see. 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

o  dear  looking like  the gfs  is  slowly  changeing its  mind reg the warm spell

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5913600.thumb.png.38643292980622e79c8aa979f9f82fe6.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.66f62471fcb2427933095176831dd572.gif

The belt of rain associated with the cold front is already into most western regions and this will make steady progress east during the day accompanied by strong winds. It will be followed in the north west by heavy blustery showers. But there are further complications in the form of another frontal system that tracks up from the south west that brings further heavy rain into much of England and Wales during the afternoon, particular west Wales and south west England

PPVE89.thumb.gif.0e5cc03ddb29aa633938bdb4f32d145e.gif1579813345_maxfr.thumb.png.882487eaa4a3bb683a11ff6bbb811d90.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.d3f71e7d0167dde44115b0a67dc41937.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.c8b843e43f41d1d35624fc2c46e7ce6d.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.dc64766bf87fe7f6b7f14bbc7e6b82e1.pngprecip_d02_25.thumb.png.20081668746e4c6ddd350f6a9d55ef44.png

The rain will clear by midnight as everything scoots into the North Sea but the country is still under the influence of the deep low now north west of Ireland and a weakening occlusion within this circulation will bring showers to western regions, frequent and heavy with the risk of thunder in the north west.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.56c484be1db313fed13038e76b9d576c.gifprecip_d02_29.thumb.png.e4f8d93959f1a2beaa00515ba32c4890.pngprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.6e0beaa408f0fd2f0fd7e040271d604d.png

By midday Saturday the low has edged further east and with the fronts finally cleared, a day of sunshine and showers ensues and these could well be heavy and thundery in western Scotland, and perhaps N. Ireland, and the wind could reach gale force in these regions.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.9a50412bacdd18b53db3cdd86bd3d682.gif2057487136_maxsat.thumb.png.2ffdc6c5e3abf78268d9427e646f9fd0.pngprecip_d02_44.thumb.png.a0ed813870b48b39cb9efdb2c0d8e6ca.png

Over Saturday night and through Sunday the low drifts just north of Scotland so a similar story of heavy thundery showers in the north of the country with a continuation of the strong winds whilst less windy in the south but frequent showers in the south west courtesy of an embedded occlusion.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.fbe826741f905719bea4701a4d0bd7c9.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.42ffc80c7781627f58e4baef24da3e78.gif931188970_maxsun.thumb.png.51c15fc4bc81dbfee534f1651e2be10e.png

The low continues to drift north on Monday but the country still remains within the circulation so another day of sunshine and showers and again heavy and thundery in the north courtesy of the trailing occlusion. Nut note another little upper has tracked east to be near the southern tip of Greenland,

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6216000.thumb.png.6af21af9c80865785ccb302ea29e2e74.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.6b94665915b129e4ce7a537e74df759e.gif1349736881_maxmon.thumb.png.dc9ebba9ef1e84d3e1505ae773a7e82f.png

By Tuesday the low has finally cleared off so far less windy and plenty of sunshine but still some showers around courtesy of a couple of troughs loitering

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6302400.thumb.png.29220a73dcbc23cdb2a21c9d5bd96f36.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.fab09e9f034f79ca2a32e30688bdd77d.gif554130666_maxtues.thumb.png.1399108ca8bdbc923dc83781cd1cd6e0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

To continue with the gfs

Developments upstream are having a knock on effect downstream and the aforementioned Greenland upper low tracks east on Wednesday and further surface fronts bring rain and strong winds to the north.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6410400.thumb.png.af974d8a5684c4bb1be1af74a790557e.png138.thumb.png.cd129b02f76230552d3f4da3b177a692.png

From this point there is so much going on it's pointless to dwell on detail so I'll just settle for the NH profiles for Friday and Saturday as the gfs drops another upper low into the Atlantic and tracks it east.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6518400.thumb.png.8da724cd972535ee6e212640cbdaab67.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-6604800.thumb.png.6ea805777b1fb9434890663ef440e62a.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Ergh....this settled spell is starting to get watered down to nothing at all. Might not even get a proper build of pressure now as low pressure to the north is more influential than thought. Let’s just hope it corrects back slightly, ukmo isn’t too bad.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm evolves in a not dissimilar manner to the gfs with obvious differences in detail. In any case not to get to bogged down with this at the moment but a glimpse at the ecm

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6648000.thumb.png.c9af75cf3ddac5ee6394a43fd5bb58d6.pngecmwf-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6648000.thumb.png.9aa894a0c244701c64ef8972df5ce403.png

132.thumb.png.a7fda9b427a1d7eb795fc34122670af9.png156.thumb.png.d88c6ecbb7efc32412515dbb62255513.png192.thumb.png.48f83bf9fa46d1d756a2de348b9b5e75.png

 

Edited by knocker
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