Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Folks!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The ECM ensembles literally look like they have flatlined come next weekend!! Is there a doctor in the house??! They do start to improve come the end of the run... But tbh, they couldn't have got any worse! Still thinking of an improvement for the last week of the month!!! In like a lion and out like a lamb for this month perhaps!! Ohhh and beware next weekends dartboard low!! 

[JeffC]

13 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

And it might be a long time in coming, Jeff? Eye-candy at Day 16?

   

And, the GEFS 00Z ensembles...

   

   

Plenty of cooler, more comfortable nights to enjoy, though.

Aye, well eye candy it may be, will be all the sweeter if it verifies, if it doesn't may leave a bitter taste ?

[Catacol]

6 hours ago, Singularity said:

 It instead involves applying known cause & effect while allowing for distorting factors such as the drastically changed Arctic troposphere and (more intermittently) lower stratosphere. 

Heres one simplified take: If you know that the tropics and mid-latitude patterns are intrinsically connected, and then the tropics change substantially, it makes intuitive sense to anticipate changes in the mid-latitudes too .

Yes. The challenge is to know exactly what the impact of our drastically changing arctic environment will have, and it is interesting to note how currently slow the vortex is at getting underway in this very early stage of its genesis. But the last bit is spot on - changes in the tropics has to mean changes in the mid lats, and we have our next MJO wave passing through the key maritime sectors shortly. Expectations of an increase in AAM followed by a change in wavelength means a likely end of the atlantic express as we head towards month's end...

What of our near semi permanent -NAO as we head towards Autumn? Been fascinating to watch its dominance bar the briefish spell of Euro heights in July on the back of the last MJO progression. After such a long time of +NAO impact are we going to see this reverse continue? 

[Methuselah]

Well, this morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles still suggestive of something of an improvement as time goes on:

   

   

And, on the subject of teleconnections --- of course they matter: they can help predict grain harvests, and other related things, worldwide...?

My only quibble is when the NAOI is used as a proxy for describing the day-to-day movements of Iceland LPs and Azores HPs...and the myriad other short-term fluctuations that add-up to the whole...

But, other than that, we do need an holistic, diagnostic overview, if we're to get to grips with things, IMO...the planet's oceans, atmosphere, biosphere and cryosphere are all inextricably linked...?

[Summer Sun]

The main 3 in agreement this morning for another autumnal weekend coming up with strong winds and rain

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes but what you won't mention is again on GFS signs of improvement later in August, and decent days before then too, easy just to bypass the weather you don't like

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm in minority for my weather preference I know, most describe warm and sunny as 'benign/boring' but signs on EC of improvement too?

[Summer Sun]

GFS mean looking a bit better longer term a very unsettled weekend to get through first then maybe an improving picture as we move towards the final bank holiday weekend before Christmas

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes but what you won't mention is again on GFS signs of improvement later in August, and decent days before then too, easy just to bypass the weather you don't like

Signs certainly improving, but still a tad early to start celebrating an improvement in the last week of August. Give it another 3-5 days and i feel we will have some clarity.



Note the rainfall spikes/mean starting to disappear towards the months end - signs that the storm track may finally move out of our locale. A few warmer runs in the mix too.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I'm in minority for my weather preference I know, most describe warm and sunny as 'benign/boring' but signs on EC of improvement too?

They do?

[Man With Beard]

ECM ensembles last night suggesting some improvements between 21st and 26th August but certainly not worth counting chickens yet

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 0z mean longer term through late August looks increasingly summery with high pressure and warmer temps!

Edited August 12, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

Wednesday's sure shaping-up to be a stinker; only 'positive' is the potential for some thunderyness, what with the currently warm SSTs?

  

 

[summer blizzard]

Still disagreement.

Euro this morning is quite optimistic in building a proper ridge early next week however it looks primarily to be a surface ridge largely being pushed aside by day 10 by another advancing low.

GFS this morning is simply unsettled right through to day 12.

..

Personally I remain dubious as to a proper change occurring quickly even if may come around slowly, there seems to be too much inertia still in the system meaning that it might take two or three ridge attempts to attain any decent sustainable ridge.

Looking at the tropics the westerly wind burst is also pretty weak.

[Methuselah]

And, maybe a return of warmer, more humid TM air? Which, for me, would be be a 'mixed blessing', as I'm getting rather tired of warm, sticky nights!

  

Edited August 12, 2019 by Ed Stone

[mb018538]

Trough starting to weaken and perhaps lift out by day 12? Let's hope so!

Looks a lot better than day 6!

Edited August 12, 2019 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

An interesting end to the 06Z (were it to materialise?) as the continental HP area edges northward...

   

But, thinking in the longer term, how will the NH profile react to the PV -- whenever that decides to form? Anywho, I'm getting the feeling that, with all of what's going-on just now climatically, analogue-based forecasts are only becoming more problematic, with time. The globe is simply not what it was 50 or 100 years' ago?

[Frosty.]

The longer term Ecm 0z ensemble mean gradually improves, especially further south.... I think there is light at the end of this unsettled cool tunnel!!!!!!!

Edited August 12, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Methuselah]

And the trend is now becoming clear...GEFS 06Z ensembles:

   

   

Light at the end of the tunnel, there is... 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Patience grasshoppers!! I feel we just need to ride out the next 7 or so days, especially in the South. The ECM 0z ensembles out to day 14 are slowly but surely showing an increase in both temperatures and seal level pressure... The mean going above 9c,and the pressure rising to 1018mb...perhaps higher with time!!!! Balmy September anyone!!!

[phil nw.]

After the July heatwave August has brought us more normal fayre it seems.

The rest of this week continues with the jet pattern further south so we look to more Atlantic fronts bringing wet and at times windy interruptions to the brighter days with temperatures disappointing at times. 

Wednesday and the weekend promises to be the worst of it in the next few days

Let's hope the ECM later mean outputs for next week verify

with the chance of the Icelandic trough retreating north somewhat allowing some improvement from south west as the Azores high tries to ridge in.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Patience grasshoppers!! I feel we just need to ride out the next 7 or so days, especially in the South. The ECM 0z ensembles out to day 14 are slowly but surely showing an increase in both temperatures and seal level pressure... The mean going above 9c,and the pressure rising to 1018mb...perhaps higher with time!!!! Balmy September anyone!!!

hope we have a similar to Sept 2011, certainly more likely than in Aug

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hope we have a similar to Sept 2011, certainly more likely than in Aug

That was some month for England and Wales! Firstly western Scotland had a very wet month.. 500-600mm falling locally. Western parts of the Midlands was very dry, especially Shropshire and Herefordshire. Cambridge recorded the highest temp of the month at 29.2c, this coming in on the 30th September. The. Coldest night was Stirlingshire at - 0.4c on the 15th September. The Central England.. CET was 15.2c...1.5c above the average, and the highest for 5 years. England and Wales recorded 155hrs of sunshine... 108% of the mean average, making it sunnier than August.... No surprises there then!!! And I wouldn't be surprised to see a much better September than August this year. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looking like a decent’ish Bank holiday weekend at least before Monday on the latest GFS 12z run with high pressure trying to build at least for a short while.

Although we’ll be in Calgary next week until Bank holiday Monday!

Edited August 12, 2019 by prolongedSnowLover