Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[tinybill]

10 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mid month indicates the best opportunity for some ridging, probably from the azores but no way guaranteed, there are plenty of very disturbed members, especially beyond mid month and also unseasonably cool.

just looked into deepest  fantasy world   its looking horrible

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image

the next front(s) associated with the low just west of Ireland are currently crossing the country having cleared western regions so still some patchy rain in the east/south east during the morning and early afternoon and first up still some heavy rain from the first system over N. Scotland. In western regions showers will develop, particularly over N. Ireland and Scotland where they could be heavy and thundery. Cooler air behind the front but still warm in the south east

Overnight the front clears to the east but another occlusion associated with the low which is now close to N. Ireland will continue to bring heavy  showers there and Scotland and also to some extent western areas further south

By midday tomorrow the low is centred over N. Ireland and with a couple of fronts in the circulation we are looking at a breezy day of frequent showers which could be heavy and prolonged in northern regions, particularly Scotland

Over Tuesday night and through Weds the trough moves north east but the UK is still under it's influence so another day of sunshine and heavy showers, But to the south west another upper trough has arrived under which another surface low is developing.

By midday Thursday the low is continuing to develop and track north east but in the interim the UK is in a col so light winds and sunny with just a few showers,

By midday Friday the low is adjacent to south west Ireland and a myriad of fronts are crossing the country so basically very windy and very wet

Edited August 5, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The problem here is that the gfs has the low tracking north east quicker than Exeter and deepens it considerable so this is the gfs over the weekend so just to note there will not be any great continuity with the above.

 

[Frosty.]

There's a very autumnal look to these Gfs 0z operational charts with october like temperatures, especially further north during low res...and lots of rain, way too much rain for the flood sensitive areas.

Edited August 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Summer Sun]

Still plenty of summer warmth to be had this week it will be unsettled at times but if you manage to avoid the showers it will be nice enough remembering of course it's early August and the sun is still strong

[knocker]

The ecm is closer to Exeter midday Friday

[Methuselah]

Hardly the most inspiring of GEFS 00Z ensembles today? London maxes going below 20C?

   

   

What happens next?

[knocker]

The EPS development of the low pressure to the north of the UK has already been discussed so suffice it to say in the 5-10 period a fairly strong westerly upper flow augmented with some input from the NW. Ergo unsettled with temps a tad below average with the usual caveat vis details and airnass mixing

[len]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm total rainfall is indicative of the forecast upcoming pattern

Knocker....is it possible to send a link for this 240hr percipitation chart.

I searched "weathermodels.com" but it seems to be a paid subs? Is that right?

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, len said:

Knocker....is it possible to send a link for this 240hr percipitation chart.

I searched "weathermodels.com" but it seems to be a paid subs? Is that right?

Precipitation charts are a waste of space in that range, rather like fantasy snow totals in winter that never happen.

[mountain shadow]

Jeezo, that is one dire ECM OPs run, Deep low after deep low impacting heavily on the North and West.

It's still early August right? Not mid November?

[Man With Beard]

Just what is it with Augusts and this decade?

If recent ECM ensemble clusters are close to the money, most of this one will be pretty unsettled.

Last night's D12 and D15 charts - enough agreement there to think any settled weather will be a surprise - could possible fluke a better period in the far south I suppose:

  

 

 

[Methuselah]

Is this what I think it is?

   

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Is this what I think it is?

An outlier?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

There's a very autumnal look to these Gfs 0z operational charts with october like temperatures, especially further north during low res...and lots of rain, way too much rain for the flood sensitive areas.

Do I detect a little desperation in your posts Karl!! That's not like you, posting deep FI charts of cool, unsettled and autumnal conditions at 14 days out!! Highly unlikely to verify... Which I'm sure you're aware of. The week ahead looks decent away from the North... Warm sunny spells and showers, some places obviously missing them.. More general rain for Friday which will quickly clear to sunny spells and some showers for the weekend!! What I am noticing over the last few days, is plenty of blue sky gaps, and reasonable sunny spells. Perhaps it's not worth the hassle of taking those day 10-14 charts with much credence. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 0z ensemble mean @ day 10 shows signs of improvement once that low clears away to the NE..the azores high / ridge is lurking with intent, patiently waiting for its opportunity to try and build in!!!!!!!!...no matt, I'm positive

Edited August 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

Where are those silly CFS charts now that predicted above average SLP for the UK in August?



ECM clusters showing conituned +ve heights to the N/NW, southerly tracking jet and UK trough. August 2019 is looking like joining the hall of shame with most of the last 10-15 years.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Where are those silly CFS charts now that predicted above average SLP for the UK in August?



ECM clusters showing conituned +ve heights to the N/NW, southerly tracking jet and UK trough. August 2019 is looking like joining the hall of shame with most of the last 10-15 years.

The final 3rd can still deliver.. The hall of shame??? Well the 1st 5 days have been splendid in some parts. Am I missing something here!! Do the Ecm clusters set the next 26 days in stone!! You was pretty much saying in June that our summer was literally doomed... 2 plumes and a record being broken since then! And still plenty of time for another really warm spell. To my knowledge there isn't a model available that will predict a month ahead with even a fraction of certainty. Hence why I keep pointing out, alot to play for this month.... 26 days left.. 

[Frosty.]

To me the Gfs 6z operational doesn't look quite as cool or wet as the 0z...baby steps!!!

[mb018538]

57 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The final 3rd can still deliver.. The hall of shame??? Well the 1st 5 days have been splendid in some parts. Am I missing something here!! Do the Ecm clusters set the next 26 days in stone!! You was pretty much saying in June that our summer was literally doomed... 2 plumes and a record being broken since then! And still plenty of time for another really warm spell. To my knowledge there isn't a model available that will predict a month ahead with even a fraction of certainty. Hence why I keep pointing out, alot to play for this month.... 26 days left.. 

I never once said summer was doomed.....quite the opposite in fact. Me saying that August will be bad is no worse than constantly saying things aren't that bad 365 days a year ad nauseum.



More flooding to come. Landslides in Scotland today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-49236254?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk&link_location=live-reporting-story

Before people start saying these ppn charts aren't accurate, they are pretty decent when dealing with mainly frontal rain as opposed to convective. 

It's also pointless saying that the first few days have been 'splendid in places'. That's like looking at the chart below where parts of England had their wettest January for over 100 years and saying at least the far NW corner of Scotland was dry. 

Edited August 5, 2019 by mb018538

[Frosty.]

As I suspected, the GEFS 6z mean has also improved, at least for the south, it's more of a north / south split longer term with some azores ridge influence further south, the north bears the brunt of the unsettled weather but even up there it's not as bad as the 0z...in situations like this any improvement, no matter how small is worth highlighting!!!

Edited August 5, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

3 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Precipitation charts are a waste of space in that range, rather like fantasy snow totals in winter that never happen.

Not completely because they do give a reasonable idea of the distribution which can come in useful when disseminating the rest of the output. And talking of charts being a waste of space at that range is using up another of Irony's nine lives

Edited August 5, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

And, here are the 06Z ensembles...as you say karl, they're marginally better -- temperature-wise:

   

   

Precipitation-wise however, it's a wee bit less than ideal. Also, it's one run from one model.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I never once said summer was doomed.....quite the opposite in fact. Me saying that August will be bad is no worse than constantly saying things aren't that bad 365 days a year ad nauseum.



More flooding to come. Landslides in Scotland today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-49236254?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk&link_location=live-reporting-story

Before people start saying these ppn charts aren't accurate, they are pretty decent when dealing with mainly frontal rain as opposed to convective. 

It's also pointless saying that the first few days have been 'splendid in places'. That's like looking at the chart below where parts of England had their wettest January for over 100 years and saying at least the far NW corner of Scotland was dry. 

So it's pointless to state that the 1st few days have been decent... But its fine to say the rest of August is doomed!! And you keep pointing out how bad it is in Scotland when your from the SE... according to David... Mr frost... The weather in Western Scotland has been very decent this summer! And its the UK.... Its very often unsettled in that neck of the woods while areas further South are much better!!! Another lovely day here in the Midlands... Tomorrow not to bad either, so that's the 1st week looking respectable. 

[knocker]

The 1145 UTC MODIS image showing the weakening front clearing the east coast and showers popping up elsewhere