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Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext EPS mean anomaly has the TPV N. Canada but still retains ridging over Greenland and a general area of low pressure to the NW of the UK. All of this relts in a fairly strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic to the UK which portends changeable weather with temps varying around the average

9-14.thumb.png.3f6e2dd03a916950120d7c3c1b131cc2.pngindex.thumb.png.11ff99f30c546c882cf1cf5efb5af8fc.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A mixed bag, according to today's GEFS 00Z ensembles: temps are okay, but rain will never be very far away...scatter on the increase?

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Things don't look too good, for those living in already rain-soaked areas...?:oldsad:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 0z there's a window of opportunity for the azores ridge / high to build in towards / during mid month and I've still got my eye on a warmer spike around August 9th / 10th.21_162_850tmp.thumb.png.f40ce83f5bd82b15e22e12b496764cdb.png21_276_500mb.thumb.png.1cc2b2013b798487ff7d79bc0cc3bdfd.png3_258_500mb.thumb.png.10b88e50f008aa9fe9dccecd7f307a85.png6_282_500mb.thumb.png.e4a9a929a91abe70e3c9ee013dba896f.png9_282_500mb.thumb.png.01b61e3264f469435da283faf88bb8de.png15_282_500mb.thumb.png.15869b4fbbf6ef5a9e9814225413195a.png17_306_500mb.thumb.png.7e11ba92447976bd39e743ad9981bfd6.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z operational is a preety unsettled run with plenty of heavy, thundery showers and longer spells of rain but also some drier and sunnier intervals. Temperature wise, generally low 20's c further s / se  but much cooler further n / w / nw...there is a suckers gap of fine weather mid month.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Still a slow decline over the coming days, according to the GEFS 06Z ensembles:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

So, very mixed bag...and no-one'll be seeing a water shortage, any time soon!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Extended ecm ensembles picking up on the unsettled conditions over the next 10 day's, perhaps an increase in pressure around mid month bringing better conditions... And more widely settled and warmer conditions by the final 3rd!! Could we be looking at  the 3rd consecutive month where our weather greatly improves towards the end of it. We just need to ride out the next 10 day's or so, but have your wellys and boats on standby..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick look at the storm potential tomorrow afternoon and evening with the latest wrf

Still some heavy showers, possible thundery, over western and northern Scotland but it's during the afternoon when the warm and moist air gets involved with the front that storms develop over north Wales spreading north east through the day and evening. Potentially some intense downpours in some areas with hail and lightning in the mix Of course they could occur anywhere within the potential zone

PPVG89.thumb.gif.3aafb3d31959f79cfff2b417d81b6f34.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.3b4bdb8e3225e0bf1392c17c6f0c5b22.giflpi_d02_35.thumb.png.5a3cc203c7bc5d91c4aede4754d91b8a.png

precip_d02_29.thumb.png.40bb3157d4e0804dbe1611fb637b9344.pngprecip_d02_32.thumb.png.e5df5a6e8e618cfb560c071ac2e8cbb5.pngprecip_d02_34.thumb.png.74de00bad2de93b6995f439253ceb293.pngprecip_d02_36.thumb.png.be8ebfaf52696f22289f2900e7632e41.pngprecip_d02_38.thumb.png.69f98ca02c615aa079faf448c6b7c205.pngprecip_d02_40.thumb.png.eaf69a295f8aae2e11f482c2a387e7d4.png

Cloud tops up to 30,000ft which the sounding would agree with

ccd_d02_32.thumb.png.3762ee415ec07f0190e0a41d8cc7f351.pngccd_d02_36.thumb.png.a904baa2bcac383ef3805d459919a20b.pngsounding.thumb.png.605595e9974ef9b7f1c71005fef6ab88.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking at the GEFS 6z members / mean there's no sign of any sustained settled weather, transient ridging at best, highest chance mid month (no guarantee) but there's plenty of unsettled weather before then and after for most of the uk. Low res trends increasingly cool for all but next week still looks warm (21/22c) with sunshine and showers / longer spells of rain (cooler for n.ireland & scotland) warmest days for the SE (23/24c) where there should be less showers and longer drier and sunny spells compared to the rest of the uk until later next week.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A rather positive-looking chart, from the 12Z...:shok:

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z operational is a mixture of troughs and ridges but with the emphasis more on troughs, again as with the 6z there's a brief suckers gap around mid month when there's a fine interlude but it's not a summery run, far from it although there is still some warmth next week further s / se, cooler further n / nw but through low res it's cooler for all..it will be interesting whether it does eventually become much cooler nationwide because there's no indication of that happening at all from exeter..i.e..no suggestion of below average temps as the gfs / gefs runs have shown today for the extended outlook!!!

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The interesting feature on this evening's gfs is the low it has forming at the base of the upper trough east of Newfoundland on Tuesday which develops and tracks east to be just to SW of the UK by midnight Friday

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5071200.thumb.png.343f46ad65ebe72c2dcfe84be61abbc9.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5244000.thumb.png.eb82f218256953399e1d1fccf3d9ad89.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5308800.thumb.png.1ed24708d2da4ffa7f5adc1912d767c5.png

Resulting in quite an intense surface low bringing strong winds and rain on Friday

132.thumb.png.74ae894367f334a8330f1765aa7b532a.png150.thumb.png.b75b088f98121b7256b627655596507e.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Today's GEFS 12Z ensembles might just be indicative (though it's a bit of a stretch!) of something better, during its later stages...?:oldgrin: 

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Too soon for getting excited...

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I don't like using the word autumnal in summer but looking at the GEFS 12z mean longer term it has to be said with lows swinging down from the NW on a NW / SE aligned jet there is no other word..well apart from some expletives!!

GFSAVGEU12_294_1.thumb.png.6881cb4b4c0b2aba6f993d07f1762173.pngGFSAVGEU12_312_1.thumb.png.2d8f1cab1329038d467179d85900ba6f.pngGFSAVGEU12_342_1.thumb.png.37efa74fbf624457468ac45a3c0bb41c.pngGFSAVGEU12_384_1.thumb.png.5a2df33f14d5fd81840fa3c0a17edeae.png

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well the Ecm 12z operational is a great run...just kidding....it's rather unsettled with temps around average but a few warmer days in a week's time before it turns cooler, there is a bit of ridging between lows / troughs but it's preety poor for the holiday season.

Edited by Jon Snow
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ecm500.024.png ecm500.144.png

I've been doing a little detective work on the model output - the culprit for our trouble with the trough crossing the Atlantic mid-late this coming week is that little low (with cool pool of air) situated east of Greenland at +24. This heads down by Iceland and keeps the door open for the trough to head NE through the UK, as opposed to stalling in place.

This is most unfortunate, as the pattern then looks to amplify again with some build of heights into Europe, but that has to push a big trough out of the way to get across the UK, instead of being able to build in with ease.

It also serves to amass some cool air and low heights - hence trough formation - to the N/NE of the UK, which that ridge has to compete against. Both the EPS and GEFS currently have an astonishingly strong signal for the trough formation to win out for dominance of the UK's weather, but there is a hint that the ridge could find a way to split the trough west and east of the UK, at least for a time around mid-month. In my experience, the models often underestimate the capacity of ridges to do that.

The Nino standing wave will be important though - and it looks a bit troubled in the near-term. Some powerful Central Pacific trade winds are being projected by GEFS especially. I'm hoping these are being overblown (as they often have been in recent months) and that the standing wave will hold together, but with much-reduced support from the sea surface temps beneath it in recent weeks, that hope is starting to seem more strenuous. That being said, the VP200 continues to revisit a Nino configuration from time to time, so it's possible that I'm being a little too negative on the prospects here.

vp.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Strong ocean temperature signatures at present. Very warm PDO , almost perfect Atlantic tripole and La Nina signal in east Pacific. What's your thoughts for later in the year @Singularity

2019080300_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@

Edited by Gael_Force
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
12 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Strong ocean temperature signatures at present. Very warm PDO , almost perfect Atlantic tripole and La Nina signal in east Pacific. What's your thoughts for later in the year @Singularity

2019080300_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@

Look at that Atlantic tripole!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Look at that Atlantic tripole!!

The rests a stonker, always fear a warm PDO though tbf, although with a tripole it might still do the job though, -  very early punt for me - late Jan / Feb Easterly after Northerly.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Look at that Atlantic tripole!!

Looks good, but I fear that roaring PDO will most likely throw a very big spanner in the works! 

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Outlook - low pressure in charge

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-4876800.thumb.png.2a0aefc45fc5a7d1287cad6d0be1a5ad.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.8f357bc8aaf6e25382e3f636944c0f1c.gif

The occlusion, preceded by a trough, has already brought some heavy showery rain to western Scotland and lighter, more intermittent, precipitation to western regions further south. As the front continues to track east so will the rain but storms will start to develop this afternoon over north Wales and then over the whole of the north of England and western Scotland before clearing this evening.There will be lightning, hail and some intense localized downpours in places unlucky enough to catch a storm. Quite a warm day, particularly in the south east

PPVE89.thumb.gif.87084b9146bfd98d1eea31eba96c3427.gif935687022_maxsun.thumb.png.47f1060bfc225e5522f1414ed96222e9.pngprecip_d02_15.thumb.png.523440c63ceca0a4320ffe6dd606af02.pngprecip_d02_18.thumb.png.bc49ed8e2677100bc864fd1b62756682.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.33ff35012b1294fd0fd6693bc90b8b6e.pngprecip_d02_24.thumb.png.cd8140538cd9fc1ac7f68bccee867377.pngprecip_d02_26.thumb.png.6ff58c0961097b8fd6c817de24b949a5.png

But as can be seen rain from the next occlusion associated with the low west of Ireland is already effecting N. Ireland and this will track west through the night as the heavy showery activity from the old front clears NE Scotland. Dry to the east and relatively mild

PPVG89.thumb.gif.1510db9aacffb577b40bb62547abe8e7.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.2c3c45893b765a9de953c6a1101623ab.pngprecip_d02_33.thumb.png.e4007872f9fe03b248eb16f8318855e0.pngprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.1f2f74c46775508d6500d490c3a272e6.png

The front and rain will continue east through Monday with some heavy, and perhaps thundery, showers developing in the north west later as the low is now centred just off the west coast of Ireland.Tending now to be a much cooler day than  of late but still warm in the south east.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.fe0a1ece1cf608bab9b312b34a14ecb5.gif951761010_maxm.thumb.png.f8b31a9d1098aa9b896b2bd1912ce6ce.pngprecip_d02_39.thumb.png.b69e14d8a91a1d8a774c221ddff7261d.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.8ea0fc1dc0b1dc5274bafba67331099c.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.b138a21aacaa6a6b9b49c2beb71c5d7b.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.39298ee465505939dc7eb810692a0966.png

By Tuesday low pressure is firmly in charge and with sundry troughs littered about a day of sunshine and showers is on the cards and some of these may be thundery and prolonged.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5092800.thumb.png.d36567a522d08fb11cad80676cbfb727.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.0fd9cd4628f22b5a606b674b00a59392.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.14e4c838bbb6d9c9f1f2edfc3c236b13.gif

738409668_maxtues.thumb.png.dc4e6147c970964ab517e5c4f1ae9560.png

Little change with this scenario on Weds but by Thursday the low has moved northeast so far fewer showers with and am upper trough now orientated Iceland > south to the west of Ireland

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-5276400.thumb.png.b0e594195eed196021c4848eb70c2493.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.c6786cda8161e456de66bc2759f57a03.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.6a21dd422ce0100674c44949ec3dcbaa.gif

1373800935_maxwed.thumb.png.e28a95632c4c974f74eb91f5bf29358b.png1662730631_maxth.thumb.png.1b7e40bcf4b52233bbda11139013e10c.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs the trough to the west swings around the upper low anchored over Iceland through Friday/Sat and the surface low in the southern quadrant tracks north east across southern Britain bringing with it some wet and windy weather,

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-5449200.thumb.png.adc737923d9a27eee93b3cdb814e98ad.pngindex.thumb.png.a7039f002622e181a140f188a653f2d5.png2136750293_sat12.thumb.png.34f2f4d8c9f64fc86c1e35a10978b4f5.png

And the five day anomaly from this point would suggest a continuation of unsettled and temps struggling around average/ Of course as been mentioned previously, as the day-to-day detail is sorted there is likely to be quite a regional variation of weather and temps as the Pm and Tm airmasses phase in the fluid upper westerly (but it should be noted the source of some of this air is Alaska)

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5913600.thumb.png.7560d9f083a381dc40559571f23bd06c.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-5913600.thumb.png.00cbbc9a8fcfd986f548ced971f4c9d6.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

From the post above this should read 'and the eastern Arctic'

(but it should be noted the source of some of this air is Alaska)

The ecm treats the low very differently but which ever way you hack it cooler air is being introduced (if correct )

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-5438400.thumb.png.7ca773189fc614462a1df1d07b6a3457.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-5611200.thumb.png.a8553306268645ac9a18714db25a55ef.pngecmwf-nhemi-t850_anom_stream-5611200.thumb.png.6532a102d6dc8bfbe2e0b9394b115fee.pngfr.thumb.png.29eb8a83942633cd857c17fcce8e55c6.pngsat.thumb.png.78aa9e4939666810926022a1f5f65898.pngsun.thumb.png.f537f14df8b3b9d778cfa8403e53db14.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 00Z ensembles look a tad chaotic today, once the upcoming cooldown happens -- and especially (but not in the least bit surprisingly) post mid-month...?

t850London.png   prmslLondon.png

t2mLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

And, most concerning of all, yet more rain!:oldsad:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The rests a stonker, always fear a warm PDO though tbf, although with a tripole it might still do the job though, -  very early punt for me - late Jan / Feb Easterly after Northerly.

A couple of tweets @knocker has posted over in model tweet thread.

Also another previous seasonal signature Nino Modoki currently but if you read in entirety, with such novel extremes, it would be a mugs game trying to second guess any season now. 

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