Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

The Gem 0z shows quite a warm up with low pressure dropping anchor to the west and much warmer continental air being scooped up ahead of it with weak heights to the east..plume potential?

It's been alluded to by the Euro and GFS for a few days now, it's essentially just a 36 hour warm spell of no use for anybody outside the south east and East Anglia between the passage of the warm and cold front. All three models move the low through. 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It's been alluded to by the Euro and GFS for a few days now, it's essentially just a 36 hour warm spell of no use for anybody outside the south east and East Anglia between the passage of the warm and cold front. All three models move the low through. 

I know that, I just mentioned it because it shows potential to be something better.

[mb018538]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

And as before mushy. no argument from the EPS this morning

And a quick glance at the latest weeklies does not fill one with joy over the following ten days. We shall see

It looks rubbish....without even a hint of anything more settled as we head further into August. Ho hum.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It looks rubbish....without even a hint of anything more settled as we head further into August. Ho hum.

You keep saying the words rubbish and useless in your updates, firstly the start of August as been very respectable... Lovely here today. And secondly read my last post regarding signs of a much better 2nd half of August, especially to the South. Yes it maybe wrong, but it may be correct. You seem to be rubbishing every model output and run and treating it like the gospel. And tbh summer has not been that bad at all barring that chronic spell in early June... Not to mention the fact we broke the all time heat record.... 

[knocker]

53 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It looks rubbish....without even a hint of anything more settled as we head further into August. Ho hum.

The ecm  weeklies appear to be losing the Greenland block during the third week of August with the TPV again established over northern Canada. and thus a more general westerly upper flow A spot chart

Edited August 2, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

This evening's gfs 5-10 anomaly has the trough/ridge complex NE Canada/Labrador Straits with the westerly upper flow running south of this across the Atlantic to the trough in the east of the latter and the TPV/trough in eastern Europe. ( Note the low over the Arctic which may well be the beginning of the TPV transferring to N. Canada). This would portend unsettled weather through the period of sunshine/showers and some longer periods of rain. Temps  generally struggling to stay around average

A couple of spot charts, not to be taken as set in stone

[sunnijim]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

It looks rubbish....without even a hint of anything more settled as we head further into August. Ho hum.

Meanwhile,in the real world, the Summer so far has been mostly summerlike,with nothing akin to any sort of washout bar a couple of days here and there especially in June.

A cursory glance back at various model discussions since June 1st will show 'various' pointing that summer is done for! 

Since the departure of last week's extreme heat,somewhere in the South has sat at 25c under sunny periods.

This despite doommongery about how the last seven days would play out on here.(local flooding in North Yorkshire aside)

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 12z operational there's some very autumnal looking charts in low res with temps well below average but in the meantime through most of high res there's plenty of warm weather, mainly further s / se, becoming cooler further n / nw and there's another showery trough moving in next week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

You keep saying the words rubbish and useless in your updates, firstly the start of August as been very respectable... Lovely here today. And secondly read my last post regarding signs of a much better 2nd half of August, especially to the South. Yes it maybe wrong, but it may be correct. You seem to be rubbishing every model output and run and treating it like the gospel. And tbh summer has not been that bad at all barring that chronic spell in early June... Not to mention the fact we broke the all time heat record.... 

Aye agree and for his location, I'd be way more optimistic if I lived in the SE

[Methuselah]

Looks as if we're entering a period of meteorological decline (no, I refuse to say the A-word!). But, despair ye not: Those Who Cannot Be Named are thinking about an improvement, later on...

   

   

COME ON YOU HATTERS!

[mb018538]

I’m not just talking about my corner of the world though, it’s the model output thread, not the regional thread. Here - sure, it’s been reasonable since late June....but other spots haven’t been so lucky.

As I mentioned earlier - a lot of places are likely to receive 1 - 1 1/2 months worth of rain in the next 10 days....if that doesn’t qualify as rubbish I don’t know what does!

* I will add the caveat that at least it’s not too bad in the SE, as that seems to be offending people.

[danm]

57 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye agree and for his location, I'd be way more optimistic if I lived in the SE

Yes and despite what some would have you believe, the weather here since the last third of June has been good. Plenty of fine, warm, sunny days with temperatures between 24c and 27c, plus a 33c, 2x34c and a 38c thrown in for good measure. 25c and sunny again today, 25c tomorrow and 27c on Sunday. 

The models this evening don’t look as bad for next week as they did earlier. The low seems to be tracking a bit further north and doesn’t look particularly potent, so the S/SE/E may not do too badly. Wetter further north and west, in areas that don’t need it.

Edited August 2, 2019 by danm

[Frosty.]

Looking towards mid August, the GEFS 12z I would say shows there's an equal chance of some sort of ridging / high pressure or low pressure and cooler conditions, the mean suggests a north / south split longer term, more chance of azores ridge influencing the south.

Edited August 2, 2019 by Jon Snow

[knocker]

The ecm in the same ball park as the gfs Weds >Sun so I wont repeat the spiel

[MATTWOLVES 3]

23 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’m not just talking about my corner of the world though, it’s the model output thread, not the regional thread. Here - sure, it’s been reasonable since late June....but other spots haven’t been so lucky.

As I mentioned earlier - a lot of places are likely to receive 1 - 1 1/2 months worth of rain in the next 10 days....if that doesn’t qualify as rubbish I don’t know what does!

* I will add the caveat that at least it’s not too bad in the SE, as that seems to be offending people.

The thing is some people presume the SE means that far corner... A NW/SE split can mean unsettled for N Ireland.... West Scotland... NW England and into North and West Wales... With areas south of this coming into the better category! 

[knocker]

The renaming of this thread to pedants corner is long overdue

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Dare I say it... Its looks better in that SE corner....

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Dare I say it... Its looks better in that SE corner....

Indeed, they have their own micro climate in summer..anyhoo the Ecm 12z is a mix of troughs and ridges, very warm at times further s / se too.

Edited August 2, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Far to much talk of troughs and rain and showers today.... How's about plume 3 instead.... Low pressure to the SW... and we potentially squeeze those very warm uppers from the south.... Come on GEM don't let me down...

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean at T240 looks horrible to me, wake me up when something more positive presents itself in the model output,  

Edited August 2, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean at T240 looks horrible to me, wake me up when something more positive presents itself in the model output,  

It's not all bad mike, it's mostly bad though ..humour aside, there is some warmth, some ridging, mainly at first but then mostly troughs..same as the operational really.

Edited August 2, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Norrance]

Back to model discussion please.

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis and the 850mb anomaly for midnight

There is a fair bit of mist/fog around at the moment but this will quite quickly burn off this morning leaving a sunny and quite warm day for many.but there will be more cloud in western regions as the occlusion and a couple of troughs take closer order But the movement of the front and associated low does start to drag warmer air up from the south so some heavy showers will develop in the west/north west during the day and they could well be thundery in places

Showers will continue in the NW for a time this evening as more persistent rain move into N. Ireland which will track NE through the night,, courtesy of the occlusion continuing to to move slowly east. Elsewhere it will be a mainly clear night with mist/fog patches again forming

By midday Sunday the occlusion, accompanied by a trough, has moved further east and the aforementioned WAA is now taking place so initially the rain will persist in the NW and then during the day heavy showers will develop with thundery outbreaks giving some localized heavy rain. These will mainly be concentrated north of a line central Wales > the Wash. Further south dry and warm

By midday Monday low pressure is in charge of proceedings so although the old occlusion has cleared to the east there are sundry other fronts around so essentially a day of sunshine and showers with longer periods of rain thrown in

Over Tuesday and Weds the upper low moves a tad NE but low pressure still dominates and with a myriad of fronts/troughs around another couple of days of sunshine and showers with temps generally around average.

Edited August 3, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Looking at the gfs in the 5-10 period there is little to add to previous posts and as this is of little interest to most I'll keep it short and just post the charts

Some spot charts.

Generally remaining unsettled with temps struggling around the average  But the detail is a long way from being set in stone and with the phasing of the Pm and Tm airmasses there could well be some significant  regional variations, with the temp especially.

[knocker]

deleted

 

Edited August 3, 2019 by knocker