Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[Frosty.]

The 564 dam line makes a welcome return @ day 10 on the Ecm 12z operational...nice to see you again old friend, it actually ties in with a warmer spike in the GEFS 12z mean around the same time!!!!!

Edited July 31, 2019 by Jon Snow

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening..  2012 ..? No but echoes of that year , this year, and August looks very wet...potential flooding. . But that's the great British weather 

[Frosty.]

Does anyone remember the way the Gem 0z ended?..well let me tell you it had a dartboard low slap bang over the uk but the 12z looks completely different with the azores ridge gradually building in!!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

50 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening..  2012 ..? No but echoes of that year , this year, and August looks very wet...potential flooding. . But that's the great British weather 

I can't see any similarity with 2012 at all.. And tbh August 2012 was a very decent month... I can understand you saying the next few days look wet... Which they don't... But to make a call on the whole of August being wet is a tad extreme!! The Ecm ensembles out to day 14 showing a mean around 8c...and a pressure level of around 1013mb..also a lot of spread, so know way of being certain on any specific weather pattern gaining the upper hand. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Does anyone remember the way the Gem 0z ended?..well let me tell you it had a dartboard low slap bang over the uk but the 12z looks completely different with the azores ridge gradually building in!!

 

Cheers for that Karl. That's a vast improvement on the earlier run, and hopefully a trend setter.

[cheese]

38 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't see any similarity with 2012 at all.. And tbh August 2012 was a very decent month... I can understand you saying the next few days look wet... Which they don't... But to make a call on the whole of August being wet is a tad extreme!! The Ecm ensembles out to day 14 showing a mean around 8c...and a pressure level of around 1013mb..also a lot of spread, so know way of being certain on any specific weather pattern gaining the upper hand. 

August 2012 was the best month that summer so if the best of summer 2019 has yet to come then bring it on.

Edited July 31, 2019 by cheese

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

looking at what coming its not looking very nice at all  plus with  the low coming later in the week   even the bbc said last night not what  you  expect in augest

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

and fantasy  world  not geting any  better

[knocker]

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

Now that low is continuing to fill and drift away the storms and heavy showers have died out with just a few bits and bobs around in the west of Scotland and the NE of England, a much drier and clear start ti the day in many places. And this will be the order of the day and pleasantly warm in the sunshine bur showers will still persist along eastern coastal regions, courtesy of the old wrap around occlusion, and will also pop up over western and central Scotland down through the NW of England to the midlands. These could be heavy with the odd clap of thunder.

The showers should dissipate this evening leaving a clear and quite cool night but they will persist along north eastern coastal regions courtesy of a sneaky trough

By Friday the influence of the  nasty low that has caused some major problems in some areas has finally disappeared so a largely dry and sunny day and again pleasantly warm in some areas but there is a convergence zone in the north and there will still be showers along the corridor of this

Over Friday night through Saturday the pattern is evolving as previously described and low pressure is taking closer order to the west. So although many areas will be warm with plenty of sunshine a trough has tracked east and showers will develop in the western regions and these could well be heavy.

 By Sunday the frontal system associated with the new low is just to the west and the trough orientated across western Scotland and NW England so widespread showery rain in these regions whilst still warm and relatively sunny in the south east.

A band of more persistent frontal rain will track NE over Sunday night and through Monday as the low edges closer and  more of the same will effect the south west and spread east resulting in a fairly wet day for many

And this is pretty much the state of play through Tuesday

 

Edited August 1, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

Just an overview of the next five days. The Greenland block is established with the trough 'corridor' running south of this N. Canada > Atlantic > UK > TPV/European trough. This would suggest continuing changeable with temps around average.

[Methuselah]

This morning's GEFS 00Z ensembles appear relatively straightforward until the 9th, after which, an 'explosion' of scatter arguably renders them of little use...?

   

   

Maybe there's a pattern-change afoot? But, I'll leave that one for the Merchants of Doom to ponder.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 0z mean there's a warmer spike on sun / mon and another around the 9th / 10th and then towards mid August there's a window of opportunity for the azores high to ridge in, at least across southern uk.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Jon Snow

[danm]

The Atlantic low next week moves towards us very slowly. In fact on the UKMO, by Wednesday, its still centred to the west of Ireland with eastern & SE England staying largely dry and warm: 

The Gfs does push that low over us where it mills about for a few days - not a great set up - but even here it’s progress eastward seems to have slowed down early next week. 

ECM shows the low losing intensity and another pulse of warm air heading up around the 10th. 

 

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, danm said:

The Atlantic low next week moves towards us very slowly. In fact on the UKMO, by Wednesday, its still centred to the west of Ireland with eastern & SE England staying largely dry and warm: 

The Gfs does push that low over us where it mills about for a few days - not a great set up - but even here it’s progress eastward seems to have slowed down early next week. 

ECM shows the low losing intensity and another pulse of warm air heading up around the 10th. 

 

Aye, Dan: a potentially warm and humid start to next weekend...

   

I'm thinking that our weather'll depend on just where, in Knocker's Corridor, depressions choose to sit?

[summer blizzard]

Models do suggest that the outlook is one which those who prefer an early Autumn will like. The outlook is generally cyclonic, generally showery and temperatures generally on the cooler side of average.

With that being said there is as Ed alluded to some evidence that the troughs will approach sufficiently slowly that the south east may squeeze out the odd warmer day between the passage of the warm and cold fronts.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

29 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Models do suggest that the outlook is one which those who prefer an early Autumn will like. The outlook is generally cyclonic, generally showery and temperatures generally on the cooler side of average.

With that being said there is as Ed alluded to some evidence that the troughs will approach sufficiently slowly that the south east may squeeze out the odd warmer day between the passage of the warm and cold fronts.

Well we really can't complain here in SW UK, it's been a dry July so welcome rain for many, just a shame it has to be during the kids holidays. I heard that Milford Haven has had about 50mm less than the July average of 70mm. I'll put a fiver on there being a return to high pressure and fine weather when the kids start back to school in September as it happens here about 95% of Septembers lol 

Edited August 1, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[Methuselah]

The 06Z looks (to me at least) more in keeping with the general pattern that's prevailed during the summer, than the 00Z did: warm in the South and Southeast to average in the Northwest...?

   

[Frosty.]

Essentially, in a nutshell the Gfs 6z operational is ridge, trough, ridge, trough, ridge etc etc with some warm days and some cooler days, the most warm days for the southeast and east anglia.

[Scorcher]

40 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Models do suggest that the outlook is one which those who prefer an early Autumn will like. The outlook is generally cyclonic, generally showery and temperatures generally on the cooler side of average.

With that being said there is as Ed alluded to some evidence that the troughs will approach sufficiently slowly that the south east may squeeze out the odd warmer day between the passage of the warm and cold fronts.

I don't really see the autumn comparisons- unsettled doesn't automatically equal 'autumnal'. This morning here it's not wall to wall sunshine but it still feels like summer. I'm still seeing air from a tropical maritime source next week so warm in any sunshine and also warmish overnight with cloud cover.

Autumnal to most people brings up thoughts of cool nights and dewy mornings which I can't see next week for the most part. Yes there may be days when the temp doesn't reach average when rain lingers, but with very average looking charts and lots of cloud here this morning, we reached 21C before midday.

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I don't really see the autumn comparisons- unsettled doesn't automatically equal 'autumnal'. This morning here it's not wall to wall sunshine but it still feels like summer. I'm still seeing air from a tropical maritime source next week so warm in any sunshine and also warmish overnight with cloud cover.

Autumnal to most people brings up thoughts of cool nights and dewy mornings which I can't see next week for the most part. Yes there may be days when the temp doesn't reach average when rain lingers, but with very average looking charts and lots of cloud here this morning, we reached 21C before midday.

Indeed, Scorcher...Despite the 'autumnal' look to some charts, RAF Mildenhall was at 25C. At midday!

[mushymanrob]

well i do see the autumn comparisons. just look at these predicted charts and see where the air is sourced.... northern canada! so whilst it might not be 'autumnal' for a week or so, as the mean upper trough drifts eastward as expected on all models this next 7 days, it looks to me like theres a case to be made for it getting cooler and fresher... assuming these charts are accurate. (note - early signs of autumn, not full blown october like).

as for writing off the whole of august, mentioned above somewhere, again, these charts suggest the next two weeks will be unsettled with periods of wet weather with low pressure in charge. blocked patterns like this dont tend to disappear very quickly, so suggesting august will be a wet month (id liken it to august 2013 actually) is i suspect a fairly safe and reasonable thought.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm quite bemused by the talk of autumnal conditions on the 1st of August!! Which ever way you look at it, there is between 4 and 7 weeks of summer left! Next week is far from a done deal so I can't understand why some would want to discount the month ahead as a cop out. The Ecm shows the potential for much warmer conditions again by next weekend!! The ukmo seems to be very reluctant for low pressure to stray to far from the West of Ireland, even at day 6!! The extended ecm ensembles paint a decent enough picture, with the mean temperature coming in at between 8/9c...the pressure looks like being around 1014mb...thats a slight upturn over last night's 12z by the way. The spread is again very large, which again tells me fine settled conditions are just as likely to have the upper hand as unsettled conditions.... Oh and tonight we have the EC46... So that will be of interest to me regarding the next couple of Weeks!!yes it's a long way off, but I still feel its good at smelling the coffee with regards to trends!! Again I say.... Alot to play for... And yes today is the 1st of August.... What does that tell you??? It tells me there is plenty of time left in the final 3rd of summer just yet!!! Enjoy your days folks...

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm quite bemused by the talk of autumnal conditions on the 1st of August!! Which ever way you look at it, there is between 4 and 7 weeks of summer left! Next week is far from a done deal so I can't understand why some would want to discount the month ahead as a cop out. The Ecm shows the potential for much warmer conditions again by next weekend!! The ukmo seems to be very reluctant for low pressure to stray to far from the West of Ireland, even at day 6!! The extended ecm ensembles paint a decent enough picture, with the mean temperature coming in at between 8/9c...the pressure looks like being around 1014mb...thats a slight upturn over last night's 12z by the way. The spread is again very large, which again tells me fine settled conditions are just as likely to have the upper hand as unsettled conditions.... Oh and tonight we have the EC46... So that will be of interest to me regarding the next couple of Weeks!!yes it's a long way off, but I still feel its good at smelling the coffee with regards to trends!! Again I say.... Alot to play for... And yes today is the 1st of August.... What does that tell you??? It tells me there is plenty of time left in the final 3rd of summer just yet!!! Enjoy your days folks...

bib... really?... every run, every source, has consistently predicted low pressure domination. although it might be warm at times, its looking like itll be wet, possibly very wet with the potential for persistent rain. the noaa anomaly charts have been consistent in their suggested 'lower then average' pressure and a steady mean upper flow from south of west but sourced from over canada. 

theres nothing settled and summery on those charts *for longer then 36-48 hours* , nor is there anything on the operational runs to get excited about, just the usual unsettled westerly mix sunnier periods/wetter spells.

[Methuselah]

Rather than any genuine trend toward 'autumnal' conditions, today's GEFS 06Z ensembles merely point in the direction of greater uncertainty (the Atlantic hurricane season is only really now getting underway?) IMO, with plenty of both warmer and cooler potential...?

   

   

If there's anything that irks me more than year-round references to 'autumnal' weather, it's the season itself!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

bib... really?... every run, every source, has consistently predicted low pressure domination. although it might be warm at times, its looking like itll be wet, possibly very wet with the potential for persistent rain. the noaa anomaly charts have been consistent in their suggested 'lower then average' pressure and a steady mean upper flow from south of west but sourced from over canada. 

theres nothing settled and summery on those charts *for longer then 36-48 hours* , nor is there anything on the operational runs to get excited about, just the usual unsettled westerly mix sunnier periods/wetter spells.

Its foolish though to make predictions beyond a week in the uk regarding what the models currently show... You say every model shows unsettled!! The ensembles do not show any one weather pattern dominating. I mentioned the EC46 because it shows a month of 2 halves... Mixed at first, and improving mid month and beyond!! Especially away from the usual suspects. This may change tonight, on the other hand it may improve. Your entitled to your opinion, and I won't discredit you for it.. Let's just wait and see to how it pans out! 

[Frosty.]

I'm bemused too, the models don't show autumnal or unsettled, they show changeable with alternating ridges and troughs, some warm weather, some cooler..normal summer weather!