Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[mountain shadow]

The models have modelled that persistent rain band on Sunday very poorly. All week that rain band was showing NOT to impact on Northern Ireland, then all of a sudden, less than two days before it impacts, we are under a weather warning for heavy rain.

 

[danm]

22 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The models have modelled that persistent rain band on Sunday very poorly. All week that rain band was showing NOT to impact on Northern Ireland, then all of a sudden, less than two days before it impacts, we are under a weather warning for heavy rain.

 

The forecast for Sunday has changed almost hourly for this part of the world over the last few days. Models clearly having a hard time pinning down the exact location of the rain band across eastern areas. 

Edited July 26, 2019 by danm

[danm]

GFS 6z turns into a great run after Tuesday. Pressure building, low pressure held out west in the Atlantic with warm air wafting up from the south. 

[Methuselah]

Not a bad set of ensembles, either:

   

   

It wouldn't take much for that warm spell to become another plume?

Edited July 26, 2019 by Ed Stone
or even a plume!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not sure about the Euro 4s placement of this rain for tomorrow, after all I'm pretty certain today for here were thundery outbreaks of rain spreading in by lunch time, when it's actually dry bright and humid. The rainband is showing to straddle the spine of the country, with W/SW areas looking to remain largely dry warm and very usable through the weekend. 

[Eskimo]

Most of the rain has been shunted slightly further West from Kent, through the East Midlands, up to the Manchester/Liverpool area according to the latest Euro. 

[cheese]

24 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Most of the rain has been shunted slightly further West from Kent, through the East Midlands, up to the Manchester/Liverpool area according to the latest Euro. 

Tomorrow looks a lost cause here but I’m hoping it moves west on Sunday. 

[Frosty.]

I mentioned earlier about the GEFS 0z hinting at very warm / humid thundery weather during early august and the 6z does too!!

 

[Mizzle]

Sorry if this is slightly off topic ( and I have posted in the Summer chat thread) but thought I'd post here too as there was some leeway given due to the historic value of recent weather events. This report has just popped onto my phone. Seems like the Met Office are reviewing data that suggests Thur did in fact break the record at 38.7C!

Record for hottest day 'provisionally broken'

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/zHrdu

Sent via @updayUK

[knocker]

This evening and overnight the waving cold front will not move very far, and even start to come back as a warm front by morning The weakening occlusion will continue to slide south east and the combine movements result in the rain becoming more widespread and persistent, and heavy in the north east by morning. N. Ireland, most of Wales and the south west of England will remain dry and the rain will clear NE Scotland by dawn. Another very warm night in the south east

Edited July 26, 2019 by knocker

[MATTWOLVES 3]

29 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Sorry if this is slightly off topic ( and I have posted in the Summer chat thread) but thought I'd post here too as there was some leeway given due to the historic value of recent weather events. This report has just popped onto my phone. Seems like the Met Office are reviewing data that suggests Thur did in fact break the record at 38.7C!

Record for hottest day 'provisionally broken'

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/zHrdu

Sent via @updayUK

Thanks for sharing, this is immense news.... It appears that the Botanic garden in Cambridge reached a temperature of 38.7c. This information is being quality controlled and validated. This could be some turn around for all those who was seriously disappointed of failing to match the record.... Fingers crossed. 

Edited July 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Spah1]

Great news, looks like the UKMO at 120hrs pushes the low though like the ECM and doesn’t stall it over us like the 0z run did 

Correct me if i’m wrong Knocker.

Edited July 26, 2019 by Spah1

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Great news, looks like the UKMO at 120hrs pushes the low though aka the ECM and doesn’t stall it over us like the 0z run

Correct me if i’m wrong Knocker.

I don't know Spah as no access to any UKMO 1200 detail as yet. I'm sure others will readily answer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

UKMO looking better day 5/6. The low pressure is not anchored over us at this point and is much further West... Possibly joining the gfs and ECM stable. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

So far so good from the GFS 12z...again low pressure further West. 

[Northern Sky]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Tomorrow looks a lost cause here but I’m hoping it moves west on Sunday. 

If by that you mean it's going to rain then good. I can bear the heat for 1 day but that horrific night last night was too much. Hopefully not looking like a repeat on the models in the near future.

Looking fairly pleasant as next week progresses.

[95 Degrees]

Very nice GFS 12z with high pressure moving in later next week.

Edited July 26, 2019 by 95 Degrees

[Frosty.]

I like the way the Gfs 12z operational is evolving, it's showing increasing warmth from the south as the GEFS that I mentioned about earlier!...and before that, nice ridging to welcome August!!!

Edited July 26, 2019 by Jon Snow

[pandit-scholar]

Although is in semi FI, it is possible we may get another Spanish plume in August. The CFS anomaly chart has consistently showing it to be dry and warm in August, so we may have not seen the last of the hot weather, even if the record books don’t get threatened again. But there again it’s the CFS so don’t take it as gospel.

Edited July 26, 2019 by pandit-scholar

[Mike Poole]

Time for me to reacquaint myself with the medium term model output, having been totally focussed on the record possibility  (which still may have happened), so a run through the 12s at T144:

GFS legacy looking very promising, all the others OK for continuation of summer except ICON (but that's a less quality model, isn't it, unless it is showing something we want to see!).

And further on...AAM looks (according to CFS forecasts) to bubble along in no mans land before a slight rise later, so no positives, no negatives from the current situation likely from this.  

I haven't looked at sea surface temperatures for a while, this is SST anomaly 2 months ago:

and this is now:

Theres quite a difference there which I don't think will necessarily significantly affect the rest of summer given the way it has been so far, the local high anomaly should continue to inflate UK temperatures, but the warm zone due west of the UK below Greenland, if it persists into winter might increase probability of a NW/SE jet stream if other factors go along with...

Edited July 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[knocker]

Some adjustments to the 5-10 gfs mean anomaly from midnight vis the orientation of the European trough and Greenland high cell resulting in the Atlantic trough being a tad further east. Still looking at a not bad week nest week with the weak ridge but perhaps becoming a little more unsettled by the end of the period

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

If by that you mean it's going to rain then good. I can bear the heat for 1 day but that horrific night last night was too much. Hopefully not looking like a repeat on the models in the near future.

Looking fairly pleasant as next week progresses.

It doesn’t need to rain all day though, that’s my point. Washouts are never fun. Pleasantly warm and dry is what I’m after, with just a bit of rain to stop the plants from dying, preferably at night. I don’t think this month has been excessively dry either.

Last night was the warmest night I’ve ever experienced in Leeds.

Edited July 26, 2019 by cheese

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, pandit-scholar said:

Although is in semi FI, it is possible we may get another Spanish plume in August. The CFS anomaly chart has consistently showing it to be dry and warm in August, so we may have not seen the last of the hot weather, even if the record books don’t get threatened again. But there again it’s the CFS so don’t take it as gospel.

The EC46 is also showing a dry and warm month, so it's not alone. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The swiss HD model has the rain further East than the Euro 4 on Saturday, and its still lying in a similar position on Sunday, meaning W/SW and possibly some midlands areas reaming fine. Not really sure this scenario has been nailed on yet though. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ties in with FAX charts matt, but still expecting washout 2 days here,