Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Put it another way. It's an added complication in reaching maxima potential that is best not to happen to later in the afternoon. Not that I'm saying it will happen

Thanks - i have a vested interest in on 100f being reached and wanted a professional opinion.

[Rob K]

3 hours ago, danm said:

Faversham is where the all time record in 2003 was recorded.

Not that site, though. The official station is a manual one at the Brogdale apple centre.

[knocker]

The emerging pattern and energy flows next week tend to put the UK in a rather static low pressure area but systems swinging east south of the main trough could once again feed warmer air into the south whilst the west and NW are eunsettled

Edited July 24, 2019 by knocker

[FetchCB]

1 hour ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

I spy a couple of 40c on the latest ARPEGE run. The naughty 40's 

And omg a 41c 

 

Right on top of where I work

[Frosty.]

The best thing I can say about the Gfs 12z operational apart from the obvious mega heat tomorrow is there's a fine and pleasantly warm first few days to august, apart from that it looks mixed with temperatures generally around average.

[mother nature rocks]

Yeah pretty much nailed on now for an EPIC day tomorrow, welsh borders eastwards look scorching with the east pushing 39/40/41*c.

What a fantastic week model watching it has been and the weather has truly delivered!! 

Thanks to all the posters on here and keep up the great work!!

Im off to the Algarve on the 3rd of August for 3 weeks so please don’t steal to much of my heat!! 

[Frosty.]

Although the Gfs 12z operational was a bit meh following this heatwave, there are some GEFS 12z members sniffing around for further plumes / continental warmth during early august..who knows, maybe something special will pop up again like tomorrow!!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

Just musing a little more on tomorrow, the record breaking day, maybe, here's the ARPEGE 12z MUCAPE at T24, T27 and T30:

So instability building, but probably not in the crucial regions that might register a record, until they have registered that record.  And afterwards of course that doesn't mean thunderstorms unless something triggers them, and that might not happen until Friday.  

Get tomorrow done and I might focus on the model output for next week!!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

Plenty of 'bumps' in this evening's GEFS 12Z ensembles:

   

   

Also, I am bearing in mind that 'others who've much more expertise than I' are not entirely ruling out another plume.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational so far..absolute scorcher tomorrow but although the following days become much less hot it stays warm, or should I say, the uppers (850's) stay warm. our friendly 564 dam line is reluctant to depart the uk in any hurry..there is some rain around though which would make it feel cooler where it's persistent..welcome rain though!!!

Edited July 24, 2019 by Jon Snow

[ICE COLD]

Nasty little low at T144 on the ECM 12z . 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Plenty of 'bumps' in this evening's GEFS 12Z ensembles:

   

   

Also, I am bearing in mind that 'others who've much more expertise than I' are not entirely ruling out another plume.

Those who can not be named pete personally I think the plume potential of August is quite high.. The long range model also looking warm for the following month, obviously that doesn't guarantee anything, but it's good to see all the same. Anyhow... ECM has expected shows the widespread heat tomorrow... Just a couple more runs to go this evening to confirm the expected.... Its been a blast has it not! 

[matty007]

A couple of models hinting at moderate cloud around 3-4pm. If this happens, I feel the record will be out of reach. The Arpege gives the most cloud cover, with GEM being least so. However, I will say, that the BBC forecast and Metoffice show it as fully sunny until 4-5pm, after maximum warming potential would have been achieved. It's one to watch, hopefully we can hold off the cloud just long enough. 

Arpege 



GFS



GEM

[knocker]

Looking at this evening's fax updates for tomorrow one thing that struck me, not for the first time, is the renewed speed east of the front/trough during the afternoon and evening. And, apparently,this  is all to do with the quite rapid realignment of the upper trough, courtesy of a very strong jet.

[Rob K]

Strange that the Arpege model goes for the highest temperatures if it also has more cloud!

[MattStoke]

The Aperge clearly doesn’t see cloud as much detriment to the temperatures as it has the highest temperatures.

[matty007]

Just now, MattStoke said:

The Aperge clearly doesn’t see cloud as much detriment to the temperatures as it has the highest temperatures.

This is true. It would depend on the extensiveness of the cloud, and where it occurs. I feel the record (if it does go, still very likely) will be around the Kent area. Just need the cloud to stay out until after 4pm. The cloud cover is probably being overestimated and it will be quite clear (as supported by the BBC and Met). However, it is chief threat to the most extreme temps. Cloud cover can really suffocate temp potential. A similar thing happened in 2015 and 2003. 

Just keep an eye on it. 

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, Rob K said:

Strange that the Arpege model goes for the highest temperatures if it also has more cloud!

Like with rainfall, the lower resolution sees more cloud coverage than likely.  Its much higher res stablemate shows a much more patchy coverage and plenty of breaks for the sun to do its work.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Do I detect a little pre match nerves setting in now folks!! The only thing that could possibly balls it up would be if we overhyped it.... To late for that, we already have keep calm all, it's still looking on.. 

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, matty007 said:

This is true. It would depend on the extensiveness of the cloud, and where it occurs. I feel the record (if it does go, still very likely) will be around the Kent area. Just need the cloud to stay out until after 4pm. The cloud cover is probably being overestimated and it will be quite clear (as supported by the BBC and Met). However, it is chief threat to the most extreme temps. Cloud cover can really suffocate temp potential. A similar thing happened in 2015 and 2003. 

Just keep an eye on it. 

I remember 2015 well. Temperatures rocketed incredibly quickly to break the July record and could well have continued on to beat the overall record but it suddenly clouded over and the temperature stopped rising.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Do I detect a little pre match nerves setting in now folks!! The only thing that could possibly balls it up would be if we overhyped it.... To late for that, we already have keep calm all, it's still looking on.. 

 

 

What model and what max does it show please?

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

UKV 15z has 39c as far North as Scunthorpe In Lincolnshire. Absolutely crazy !

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

What model and what max does it show please?

Those 2 charts I posted Feb were the Swiss HD model and the arpege model. The arpege is showing between 36-40c. 

[NTC]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

UKV 15z has 39c as far North as Scunthorpe In Lincolnshire. Absolutely crazy !

There is no way it will be 39c in Scunthorpe they be lucky to get past 33c

[Mike Poole]

24 minutes ago, matty007 said:

This is true. It would depend on the extensiveness of the cloud, and where it occurs. I feel the record (if it does go, still very likely) will be around the Kent area. Just need the cloud to stay out until after 4pm. The cloud cover is probably being overestimated and it will be quite clear (as supported by the BBC and Met). However, it is chief threat to the most extreme temps. Cloud cover can really suffocate temp potential. A similar thing happened in 2015 and 2003. 

Just keep an eye on it. 

I do not agree that this record will be broken in Kent.  All the models that have the really high temperatures are in the Cambridge, Peterborough area as far as I can see, max temps on 12z ARPEGE for example: