Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - hot spell beckons but then what?


Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Without wishing to sound like a party pooper on a record breaking week....next week is starting to look very dodgy indeed!

All models this morning balloon a big Arctic high up as a result of all the heat in our locale, and as such the Atlantic lows have nowhere to go except slowly drift across and get stuck over the UK. Looks a bit like early June again, could be a real soaking on the way, as well as down the eastern half for the weekend. One to watch.

indeed... my heart sank as support for an unsettled start to august seems to be looming.... an unsettled august, huh, who would have thunk it?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
1 minute ago, NTC said:

There is a thunderstorm warning in place for England tomorrow from 3pm I haven't seen any mentions of thunderstorms on any model or weather bulletin

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-07-25&id=86ecaeac-7d9f-4396-8f37-c72f7bbdc2e3

Think they're taking no chances because of their late warnings yesterday when forecast was far more likely 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
4 minutes ago, NTC said:

There is a thunderstorm warning in place for England tomorrow from 3pm I haven't seen any mentions of thunderstorms on any model or weather bulletin

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-07-25&id=86ecaeac-7d9f-4396-8f37-c72f7bbdc2e3

I personally think the chances are very slim of thunderstorms then. 

Mind you, it would be typical British party pooping weather if it did happen. 38.4c at 2:30 and then thunderstorms interject and ruin the show. I can just see it now.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Think they're taking no chances because of their late warnings yesterday when forecast was far more likely 

They were a bit off the mark yesterday. I shall again start to pay attention when estofex release a forecast, aswell as Nick F, BrickFielder and convective weather . 

Tomorrow could be every bit as explosive as earlier today IMO, there’s certainly more juice on the offering from what I can see. It’s just sitting further east. Some models show in excess of 4500j/kg CAPE with a -12 LI, along with what looks like an upper trough and lowering pressure from the west. Definitely a recipe for some explosive storms. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

ICON 6z for tomorrow....I'm really going to miss charts like these after tomorrow but I remain hopeful there will be further hot charts verifying during the rest of this summer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

icon-0-33.thumb.png.8eb5adf1cfef248fd60563386cae22de.pngicon-1-33.thumb.png.4f8fbf6ab489ed7a76d0a5cc26cdd4e6.pngicon-1-51.thumb.png.34ebf0765b3a0a6e7983743864663fea.png

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

I'm already seeing a wide stretch of 30c at only 1pm...one potential thorn In the side of this record breaking attempt will come in the form of thundery downpours tomorrow afternoon... But tbh alot of places will escape these, and there are a fair few locations in the mix to break the record... So if one place misses out, sure to god another location just up the road will breach it! The weekend is quite a come down compared to currently. I would say the North and East look primed for the worse of the conditions with temps really suppressed in the rain. Areas to the West and South West could fair quite alot better and remain dry and warmer. Early next week could see largely sunny and again warmer conditions again in Central S/SE parts, while the NW looks to be more changeable... Not a bad overall outlook at all in my eyes. 

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.

Currently 33.8c at Faversham. Wow. 

faversham.thumb.png.38f97fa7d0ea85714b316ce1cf3e4672.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Not too bad over all...And I think we can all safely ignore the ridiculous rain spike, on Day 16!:oldgrin::unsure2:

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Just to let you know how bad the gfs is at forecasting temps!!the absolute max for cambridge was 27 or 28 today but cambriddge has already nearly reached 31 degrees with 3 hours left to  rise even further!!faversham as mentioned above is already at 33 degrees!!the max the gfs was goin for anywhere in the uk was 30 today!!really atrocious modelling if you look at it!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just to let you know how bad the gfs is at forecasting temps!!the absolute max for cambridge was 27 or 28 today but cambriddge has already nearly reached 31 degrees with 3 hours left to  rise even further!!faversham as mentioned above is already at 33 degrees!!the max the gfs was goin for anywhere in the uk was 30 today!!really atrocious modelling if you look at it!!

Indeed. And it just shows how high tomorrow might get. 

I don't want to get carried away here, but Faversham is now at 34.3c with 2.5/3 hours of warming left. There is a chance we can beat the July record today if there is adequate sunshine. Only another 2.3c required. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean is EPIC for tomorrow but then during the following days shows a marked drop back down to average before bouncing back a bit but it's really all about tomorrow...Tomorrow is all that matters, we have a few records to smash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

21_36_850tmp.thumb.png.3854dd0092265a53a1480d4cf02dbe9c.png21_36_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.8a8e09b224478f7dfd19e336dd5061f8.png21_84_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.ff5194382f91e89f14d295cf0c4825a7.png21_108_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.cd05275825e9355a8ea58e340d222844.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 6z mean is EPIC for tomorrow but then during the following days shows a marked drop back down to average before bouncing back a bit but it's really all about tomorrow...Tomorrow is all that matters, we have a few records to smash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

21_36_850tmp.thumb.png.3854dd0092265a53a1480d4cf02dbe9c.png21_36_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.8a8e09b224478f7dfd19e336dd5061f8.png21_84_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.ff5194382f91e89f14d295cf0c4825a7.png21_108_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.cd05275825e9355a8ea58e340d222844.png

 

It's going to be a monumental day and one I, and most of us, will remember for a long time. 

I really do think we can accomplish three things tomorrow. 

1. The July record (if it's not done today )
2. 38.5c (I'm virtually positive this will be surpassed)
3. 40c. (Call me an optimist, but I just have an feeling that we might just do it. Or at least get very close) 

Amazing and a real treat for heat lovers and extremists like me. 

Edited by matty007
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
20 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Indeed. And it just shows how high tomorrow might get. 

I don't want to get carried away here, but Faversham is now at 34.3c with 2.5/3 hours of warming left. There is a chance we can beat the July record today if there is adequate sunshine. Only another 2.3c required. 

Is faversham counted as an official site?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
17 minutes ago, matty007 said:

Indeed. And it just shows how high tomorrow might get. 

I don't want to get carried away here, but Faversham is now at 34.3c with 2.5/3 hours of warming left. There is a chance we can beat the July record today if there is adequate sunshine. Only another 2.3c required. 

I don't want to burst your bubble but the accuracy of that Faversham weather station is questionable. It shows a recorded high yesterday of 36.1c. 

If it's not an official meto site it's not worth the paper it is written on I am afraid.  

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is faversham counted as an official site?

I'm thinking it's the North Kent coast weather station just located off faversham Road shaky... Currently showing as 32.9c 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Just now, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

I don't want to burst your bubble but the accuracy of that Faversham weather station is questionable. It shows a recorded high yesterday of 36.1c. 

If it's not an official meto site it's not worth the paper it is written on I am afraid.  

 

It's always been accurate for me. 36.1c may well have been accurate yesterday, but if it's unofficial it's not counted, doesn't mean it's not accurate. This is the big problem with these official stations. There are many 'unofficial' ones that are just as accurate and often surpass the official ones. 

I have had personal experience with the Faversham station, it is accurate. It recorded the maximum in 2003 after all. It is probably the hottest spot in the UK. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
39 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just to let you know how bad the gfs is at forecasting temps!!the absolute max for cambridge was 27 or 28 today but cambriddge has already nearly reached 31 degrees with 3 hours left to  rise even further!!faversham as mentioned above is already at 33 degrees!!the max the gfs was goin for anywhere in the uk was 30 today!!really atrocious modelling if you look at it!!

terrible. After a supposed upgrade too.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Is faversham counted as an official site?

Faversham is where the all time record in 2003 was recorded.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad:

t850London.png   t2mLondon.png

prmslLondon.png   prcpLondon.png

Not too bad over all...And I think we can all safely ignore the ridiculous rain spike, on Day 16!:oldgrin::unsure2:

Indeed mate; nothing much of concern there beyond the operational getting confused at the end of the run regarding precipitation!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The Ec46 update on Monday is largely pointing to positive pressure anomalies.. This going out to the final 3rd of August... Pressure remaining largely above 1010mb.This more so towards the S/SE... not checked precipitation amounts yet... But I feel its quite positive moving forward. Its also showing up as a rather warm month, especially in Central and S/SE  areas.. Nothing nasty lurking in the shed at this point. 

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just looking through the GEFS 6z I get a feeling we could be flirting with another plume in early august!!!!!!!!!

3_252_850tmp.thumb.png.e50488b6669451a618d5af5697f486de.png3_252_2mtmpmax.thumb.png.38c235f38d0f1f9061d806f23ff4e5db.png12_348_850tmp.thumb.png.647de054c4f44dcc4f68f617f4e94c78.png

 

Edited by Jon Snow
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I think more to the point vis the thunderstorm warning late tomorrow afternoon is whether any storms will be preceded by any medium level cloud (such as Ac Cas) just prior to maximum temp time

cloudpanel_d02_30.thumb.png.432060707ef970c3ade26134d7de043c.pngcloudpanel_d02_31.thumb.png.02d3ef5a13aa7786b8a92a5889ae656e.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
37 minutes ago, matty007 said:

It's always been accurate for me. 36.1c may well have been accurate yesterday, but if it's unofficial it's not counted, doesn't mean it's not accurate. This is the big problem with these official stations. There are many 'unofficial' ones that are just as accurate and often surpass the official ones. 

I have had personal experience with the Faversham station, it is accurate. It recorded the maximum in 2003 after all. It is probably the hottest spot in the UK. 

I could understand half a degree c, even maybe 1c above the highest official recording, but nearly 2 half degrees c is a bit suspicious imo. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire

As amazing as it will be tomorrow, where is the enjoyment in it? 

Who will be out working in it with no problems, sun bathing in it? It will be too warm to enjoy, so apart from the enjoyment factor of it being most probably a few records broken, where is the fun?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
40 minutes ago, knocker said:

I think more to the point vis the thunderstorm warning late tomorrow afternoon is whether any storms will be preceded by any medium level cloud (such as Ac Cas) just prior to maximum temp time

cloudpanel_d02_30.thumb.png.432060707ef970c3ade26134d7de043c.pngcloudpanel_d02_31.thumb.png.02d3ef5a13aa7786b8a92a5889ae656e.png

i hope so...i like Ac Cas ..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    More rain on the way: Storm Nelson brings gales Thursday, but rain and wind easing for Easter

    Spells of rain or showers with sunshine in between affecting most areas today, snow over northern hills. Storm Nelson arrives tomorrow, bringing gales to southern coasts and windy elsewhere with further showers. Showers and wind easing somewhat into the Easter Weekend. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-27 09:35:27 Valid: 27/03/2024 0900 - 28/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - WEDS 27 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...